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Continuing story · 2 reports

The 2026 El Niño episode

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Where it stands

The developing tropical Pacific El Niño has strengthened from about 0.5°C to about 2°C above normal, and was still strengthening in the latest report. Its peak remains ahead, expected this winter; the episode has not been declared over.

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Continuing storyDay 22

2 reports23 outlets38 sources2 videos

20 quiet days
  • No dated events yet
  1. Update 1Pacific Heat Surges Past 36C as Met Office Warns Strongest El Ni7o in Living Memory
  2. Update 2August Tied the Hottest Month Ever Recorded — and the Worst Heat Is Still Coming

The story so far

  1. Update 222 days later

    August Tied the Hottest Month Ever Recorded — and the Worst Heat Is Still Coming

    August 2026 matched July 2023 at 1.65°C above pre-industrial, breaching 1.5°C before an unprecedented El Niño reaches its winter peak.

    What moved

    • August 2026 averages 16.96°C, tying July 2023 as joint-hottest month at 1.65°C above pre-industrial.
    • El Niño peak window expected, with some coming months possibly running near 2°C above average.

    Still open after this report

    • No final European excess-death toll covering the full period and region.
    • No confirmed peak strength for the still-building El Niño.

  2. Update 1

    Pacific Heat Surges Past 36C as Met Office Warns Strongest El Ni7o in Living Memory

    The Met Office says the Pacific warming could top 336C, with some guidance near 46C 2 record heat, fires and crop risks into 2027.

    Still open after this report

    • No single agreed peak value between just above 3°C and near 4°C, and no settled regional breakdown of flood versus drought severity.

History

  1. Opened1 report

Who's involved

People

  • Adam ScaifeBritish meteorologist (born 1970)1 report
  • James E. HansenAmerican climatologist (1941-)1 report

Places

  • IndonesiaIndonesia2 reports
  • ArcticArctic1 report
  • EuropeEurope1 report
  • IndiaIndia1 report
  • North AmericaNorth America1 report
  • Pacific OceanPacific Ocean1 report
  • Panama CanalPanama Canal, Panama1 report
  • ParisParis, France1 report

Every outlet we read on this story

38 sources23 outlets2 videos1 wire copy