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Continuing story · 3 reports

Flávio Bolsonaro’s 2026 presidential campaign

First aired Latest aired

DevelopingNext check Oct 25: The runoff result, whether defeated candidates' votes moved to Flávio, and any fraud challenge.

Where it stands

Flávio Bolsonaro launched his campaign on July 26, 2026, accepting the Liberal Party nomination in São Paulo. In the first round on October 4 he finished first, 1.9 points ahead of President Lula, but neither reached 50% of valid votes. The two now meet in a runoff, which will decide the winner.

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Continuing storyDay 71

3 reports42 outlets56 sources5 videos

21 quiet days43 quiet days5 quiet days
  • No dated events yet
  1. Update 1Flavio Bolsonaro launches Brazil presidential campaign with AI message from jailed father
  2. Update 227 Years Out, 25% Tariff In: Lula and Bolsonaro's Son Race to October
  3. Update 3Bolsonaro's son tops Lula by 1.9 points, and the polls that had Lula ahead look wrong

The story so far

  1. Update 350 days later

    Bolsonaro's son tops Lula by 1.9 points, and the polls that had Lula ahead look wrong

    Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, finished first in Brazil's first round with Lula second. The 25 October runoff turns on whether the roughly 8% of votes that went to others follows the right.

    Still open after this report

    • Whether the defeated candidates' roughly 8% moves to Flávio, and whether any endorsements follow.
    • Turnout, abstention, congressional results, and how the Ibovespa and real actually closed on Monday.
    • Whether Flávio or Jair Bolsonaro press fraud claims, and whether Jair is in prison or under house arrest.

  2. Update 221 days later

    27 Years Out, 25% Tariff In: Lula and Bolsonaro's Son Race to October

    Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro opened on home turf for October with polls tight and Trump's 25% tariff fight reshaping the race.

    Still open after this report

    • Exact polling numbers, full tariff list, and what reciprocity action will concretely do.
    • Identities and platforms of the three trailing candidates and details of other scandals.

  3. Update 1

    Flavio Bolsonaro launches Brazil presidential campaign with AI message from jailed father

    Flavio Bolsonaro accepted the Liberal Party nomination in Sao Paulo with a synthetic Jair Bolsonaro on screen — days later, courts and his father's own lawyers challenged the stunt.

    Still open after this report

    • No verified poll margin, no verified disclosure of the simulation as compliant, and no verified pledge to return power to his father.
    • No verified endorsement by Michelle Bolsonaro and no verified centrist neutrality, and no verbatim quotes from the principals in the reporting excerpts.

History

  1. Opened1 report

Who's involved

People

  • Flávio BolsonaroBrazilian politician, former state deputy of Rio de Janeiro and Senator of the Federative Republic of Brazil since 2019 (born 1981) president-elect3 reports
  • Jair Bolsonaro38th President of the Federative Republic of Brazil (2019–2023)3 reports
  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silvapresident of Brazil from 2003 to 2011 and since 20233 reports
  • Javier Mileieconomist, politician and president of Argentina since 20232 reports
  • Alexandre de MoraesBrazilian jurist, lawyer, politician and Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) since 20171 report
  • Augusto CuryBrazilian writer and psychiatrist1 report
  • Benjamin NetanyahuPrime Minister of Israel (born 1949), (1996–1999; 2009–2021; 2022–present)1 report
  • Celso AmorimBrazilian diplomat (born 1942)1 report

Places

  • BrazilBrazil3 reports
  • São PauloSão Paulo, Brazil2 reports
  • Estádio Municipal 1° de Maio - São Bernardo FCR. Olavo Bilac, 240 - Jardim Olavo Bilac, São Bernardo do Campo - SP, 09725-570, Brazil1 report
  • Rio de JaneiroRio de Janeiro, Brazil1 report
  • WashingtonWashington, DC, USA1 report

Promises

Promised in this story: 1Pending 1

  • PendingPaul St-Pierre Plamondon: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon pledged that the PQ would not hold an independence referendum before January 20, 2029.Due

Every outlet we read on this story

56 sources35 outlets5 videos1 wire copy

Who reported what

24 points6 confirmed by two or more outlets14 from a single outlet0 disputed

What 10 outlets reported about this story, point by point, and who reported each point first.

Points more than one outlet reported

Each column is an outlet, in the order they first reported. Select a mark to read that outlet's wording.

  • Reported it first
  • Reported it
  • Repeated another outlet
  • Did not report it
PointDW NewsABC News (Australia)BBC NewsBloomberg TelevisionSBS NewsNPRThe GuardianFRANCE 24 EnglishReutersPBS NewsHourOutlets
First-round vote shares for Bolsonaro and LulaIndependently confirmed7
Date and candidates for the presidential runoffIndependently confirmed7
No candidate won an outright majorityIndependently confirmed5
Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first roundIndependently confirmed3
Jair Bolsonaro’s sentence for plotting a coupNot independently confirmed3
Lula’s bid for a fourth presidential termIndependently confirmed2
Bolsonaro’s pledge to pardon his fatherIndependently confirmed2
Other candidates’ voters in the runoffNot independently confirmed2
First-round abstention rateNot independently confirmed2
Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment and support for his sonNot independently confirmed2

Points only one outlet reported

Only reported by DW News

Only reported by ABC News (Australia)

Only reported by BBC News

Only reported by The Guardian

Only reported by FRANCE 24 English

Each line is the claim as we recorded it from that outlet's report. Compared as of .

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