能源 · 孟加拉国液化天然气
部长称孟加拉国液化天然气采购保障至12月,但代价高昂
原语言视频
译自英文原文。
对孟加拉国的工厂和电力用户而言,眼下的缓解在于,有望获得燃料,使生产和供电维持到12月。问题在于成本:据能源部长称,紧急采购液化天然气的价格已经高到让部分燃油发电机组重新启动变得合算。而这项采购保障目前还没有延伸到1月。1
电力、能源和矿产资源部长伊克巴尔·哈桑·马哈茂德11月14日表示,按当前需求计算,孟加拉国已购买足够的液化天然气,可维持正常供气至2026年12月。他称,在一次导致许多发电厂停运、工厂遭受严重困难的中断事件之后,天然气供应相当稳定。1
这是一项有意义的近期保障,但其范围小于保证电力不间断供应。采购液化天然气、将其运抵、再气化,以及维持发电站和电网运转,是彼此独立的要求。这项公告确认的是部长对采购情况的说法,并非经独立核实的燃料可用量与需求平衡情况。
马哈茂德在达卡一家酒店出席第五届孟加拉国经济会议-2026时发表上述讲话。该活动由《商业新闻报》组织,讨论了全球局势不确定背景下的经济、投资和能源安全。他对供应的保证明确以当前天然气需求为前提,并未证实所有已购燃料都已实际储存在孟加拉国境内。1
燃油发电机组为何重新启用
按照部长的说法,此次中断始于一座浮式液化天然气接收站出现问题。这类设施——浮式储存再气化装置,简称FSRU——储存进口液化天然气,并将其再气化后供应给用户。即使已经安排进口,这一环节发生故障,仍可能导致发电厂和工厂缺少可用燃料。1
孟加拉国随后在现货市场额外采购液化天然气,即在长期合同之外进行采购。马哈茂德表示,在新加坡市场购买的液化天然气也大幅涨价。他称,先前价格为每单位$12,最近一次采购价格为$31,超过此前价格的两倍半。1
供应稳定不等于供电不间断
马哈茂德对当前情况的描述比他对危机的描述更为平稳。他表示,过去约两周,限电——即供电不足时有意切断电力——的情况非常少。他称,部分地区的停电是技术故障所致,而非燃料危机。1
这些是定性判断,并不能证明停电已经结束。现有报道没有提供两周内的天然气交付量、未满足需求或停电情况时间序列,无法据此检验这些说法。对于努力维持生产的工厂而言,这一区别具有实际意义:燃料供应只能解决一种中断原因,并非所有原因。
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播出原貌
- Bangladesh has restarted oil-fired power units to manage its gas shortage.
- The energy minister says LNG purchases now cover demand through December, but at sharply higher prices. Factories and electricity users depend on keeping that fuel flowing.
- January's fuel purchases, and the price of maintaining supply into next year, are still unresolved.
- Energy Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud announced the purchases in Dhaka on November fourteenth. He spoke at the Fifth Bangladesh Economic Conference, where energy security was part of a wider discussion about the economy and investment amid global uncertainty.
- The conference was organized by Bonik Barta at a hotel in the capital. Mahmud's assurance rests on current gas demand. He says the LNG needed to keep supplies normal through December has already been bought.
- December twenty twenty-six is the limit of the purchasing assurance. Mahmud says Bangladesh has bought enough LNG for that period. For electricity users and factories, that offers a near-term fuel horizon after a disruption that shut down many power plants.
- The fuel still has to reach the gas network. LNG means liquefied natural gas, imported in liquid form. A floating terminal stores it and turns it back into gas so it can be supplied to users.
- Problems with a floating LNG terminal sharply reduced gas pressure, Mahmud says. Electricity generation was severely disrupted, many power plants shut down, and factories suffered extensively. That terminal is a link between imported liquid fuel and the gas those users need.
- The disruption's scale needs care. Mahmud described pressure falling to nearly half. Pressure tells us something different from the volume of gas flowing through the network, so the two can't be used interchangeably.
- The nearly-half figure describes either a fall in pressure or a fall in supply. Those are different measurements. The precise national loss of gas volume is unclear, even though Mahmud describes substantial damage to power generation and factory operations.
- Subscribe to this channel to follow Bangladesh's January fuel purchases and the cost of keeping gas flowing.
- Bangladesh bought extra LNG on the spot market to manage the shortage. Those purchases sit outside long-term contracts, and Mahmud says fuel bought in the Singapore market also became substantially more expensive.
- Mahmud put the earlier LNG price at twelve dollars per unit and the latest at thirty-one dollars. That's more than two and a half times the earlier price. The precise pricing basis hasn't been confirmed.
- One pricing unit used for those figures is a million British thermal units, a measure of energy. The minister didn't give the transaction dates or contract terms. His comparison describes the purchases he cited, rather than an average across the country's LNG imports.
- Gas-fired electricity had become almost as expensive as oil-fired electricity, in Mahmud's assessment. That changed the immediate choice of fuel. Some units at oil-based power plants were restarted to help manage the shortage and maintain electricity supply.
- The latest assessment is more settled than the disruption he described. Mahmud says gas supply is fairly stable. He also says load-shedding, the deliberate cutting of electricity when supply falls short, has been very low for about two weeks.
- Technical faults caused some local electricity interruptions, Mahmud says. His assessment leaves room for outages even with fuel available. Buying LNG, delivering it and converting it back into gas are separate steps toward dependable power.
- The December purchases come without a disclosed delivery schedule, so the timing of fuel reaching users is still unclear. Mahmud says planning for January twenty twenty-seven will follow. The government hasn't announced completed purchases for that month or their price.
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