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能源 · 跨境天然气供应

印尼削减对新加坡的天然气供应：电力供应和合同面临不同考验

新加坡称，印尼转供影响其每日天然气需求的不到2%。然而，维持电力稳定并不能解决交付缺口及其背后的合同问题。

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新闻追踪第 6 天

1 篇报道35 家媒体66 个来源

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  1. 第 1 次更新印尼削减对新加坡的天然气供应：电力供应和合同面临不同考验当前位置

不到2%：据新加坡能源市场管理局称，这是印尼减少出口所影响的新加坡每日天然气需求占比。影响小到足以让该局表示，电力供应可以保持稳定；但还不足以让缺少的交付——或背后的合同——成为别人的问题。14

印尼于2026年10月24日开始减少对新加坡的管道天然气出口，将供应转向满足本国电力需求。一天后，总理黄循财表示，签署了商业天然气供应合同的各方应履行承诺；新加坡的天然气进口商将采取必要措施，维护自身权利和利益。当前直接面临的是供应与合同问题，而不是已经出现的新加坡电力短缺。28 64

关键事实

  1. 不到2%受影响的需求占新加坡每日需求的比例（能源市场管理局评估） 14
  2. 3100万报道所称每日转供的标准立方英尺数 128

据对印尼上游油气监管机构SKK Migas的报道，主要公布的转供量为每日3100万标准立方英尺，其中1500万来自纳土纳，1600万来自苏门答腊。这是被转走的数量，并非印尼此前向新加坡供应的总量。部分报道使用能量单位，而非体积单位；这一差异尚未厘清，且会影响数字之间的比较。1 28 7

转供天然气的去向

SKK Migas负责人Djoko Siswanto将这一决定描述为保障国内电力用气稳定的一种方式。据报道，天然气将供应巴淡岛、民丹岛和苏门答腊。这使减供有了具体目的：此前跨境供应的天然气正被分配给印尼的电力需求。但这并不能证明新增发电量有多少，也不能证明因此避免了任何特定停电事件。1 28

部分纳土纳天然气的转供路线已有明确说明：经由西纳土纳输气系统、彭宾岛和巴淡岛，输送至公用事业公司PLN Batam。这条路线有助于说明该决定的具体运作方式，而不仅仅是表明国家倾向于将更多天然气留在国内。8

各方报道均称，转供于10月24日开始。最初宣布的时间则不太明确：当天发布的报道说减供立即开始，另一篇报道则称最初的表态出现在10月23日，并于次日实施。这些报道可能是在描述同一项决定，但无法据此确定唯一的宣布时间。6 28

此次转供也发生在地区因婆罗洲和苏门答腊火灾烟霾问题而出现紧张之际。《南华早报》将天然气决定与这场争议，以及普拉博沃·苏比安托总统对未具名国家在烟霾危机问题上的批评并列报道。但现有报道没有任何官方表态将减供与这些批评联系起来。印尼给出的解释是满足国内供应；称减供是报复，则超出了证据所能支持的范围。1 4

维持电力稳定是一项考验

新加坡的应对将国家能源安全与受影响买方的权利区分开来。能源市场管理局表示，现有充足的能源供应和应急安排，可维持电力供应稳定。新加坡也准备在必要时额外采购液化天然气。这是一种供应选择，并不意味着已经完成了替代采购。14 17

不过，商业影响已经出现。《海峡时报》报道称，新加坡最大的天然气供应商之一曾遭遇印尼供应商临时减少供气。现有材料无法可靠确认受影响的卖方和进口商。纳土纳和苏门答腊指的是供应来源地，SKK Migas是监管机构；这些信息都无法确认哪些公司涉及交付义务。9

黄循财于10月25日在人民行动党大会上表示，新加坡希望各方履行商业天然气合同。他称进口商将维护自身权利和利益，这意味着可能采取合同补救措施；但这并不能证明诉讼或仲裁已经提起、违约已在法律上得到认定，或应支付赔偿。64

这些问题取决于相关协议。现有证据尚未证实协议中的交付义务，以及是否有允许临时减供的条款。也没有经过核实的证据显示替代供应商、采购量、采购价格或对消费者电价的影响。尚待解决的商业选项包括恢复交付、安排替代供应或寻求补救措施，并确定由谁承担后果。9 64 14

不同数字应分别标注

各家报道对转供量使用的单位并不一致。CNA和路透社报道称，每日转供量为3100万标准立方英尺；《罗盘报》和Bloomberg Technoz报道称，每日为310亿英热单位。标准立方英尺是在特定条件下测量体积的单位，英热单位则用于测量能量。数值相同并不能证明两者可以精确换算，因此不应在未加说明的情况下将这些报道视为使用了相同的计量方式。4 28 6 7

百分比比较也有另一种陷阱。《商业时报》将减供量与印尼2024年对新加坡的管道出口量相比，得出约8%的比例。其他报道则称，减供量约占印尼管道出口的9%。没有报道提供经过核实、且与减供前紧邻时段相对应的出口总量。因此，这些数字不能取代能源市场管理局以新加坡每日总需求为基准的另一项比较，也不能据此确定当前双边减供的确切比例。18 11 14

《联合早报》的另一篇报道将进口商收到的通知与两个数字联系起来：170亿英热单位和18天。现有证据无法可靠确认该能量数值是否为每日速率、具体涉及哪些日期，或它与更大范围的转供有何关系。因此，这项信息无法为恢复全部已宣布减供量提供可靠期限。65

黄循财还提到，探索核能和加强全球伙伴关系有助于提升能源安全。这些是长期发展方向，并非批准建设核反应堆，也不能立即替代被转走的天然气。目前，新加坡称能够维持电力供应稳定。仍未解决的是受影响公司将如何、按照什么条件以及何时处理交付缺口。2 14 64

播出原貌 16 行
  1. Indonesia is diverting gas from Singapore to fuel its own power supply.
  2. Singapore says it has enough energy to keep electricity supplies stable. But the reduction has reached a major gas supplier and prompted a demand to honour signed contracts. The unresolved issue is how the affected companies will restore deliveries, secure substitutes or enforce their contractual rights.
  3. Gas from Natuna and Sumatra is being redirected toward Indonesian electricity needs. The destinations include Batam, Bintan and Sumatra. Djoko Siswanto, who heads Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator, SKK Migas, says the diversion will help maintain reliable domestic gas supplies for power.
  4. One part of the Natuna diversion runs through the West Natuna Transportation System, then Pulau Pemping and Batam, to the utility PLN Batam. That gives a concrete destination for gas previously supplied across the border. Indonesia began reducing the exports on October 24.
  5. SKK Migas announced a reduction of 31 million standard cubic feet a day. The regional breakdown is 15 million from Natuna and 16 million from Sumatra. Those figures describe the gas being diverted, rather than the total Indonesia previously supplied to Singapore.
  6. A major Singapore gas supplier has experienced temporary reductions from an Indonesian supplier. That gives the decision an immediate commercial consequence. On October 25, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong addressed those supply commitments at the People's Action Party convention, calling for parties to honour their commercial gas contracts.
  7. Wong said Singapore's gas importer would take necessary steps to protect its rights and interests. Siswanto's explanation focuses on Indonesia's electricity needs. The practical tension is between a government's domestic supply priorities and the delivery commitments made by commercial suppliers.
  8. The terms of the affected contracts will shape what those companies can do. We don't know what provisions allow temporary reductions. Wong's remarks set out an intention to protect contractual rights. Any decision about restoring gas, arranging substitutes or pursuing remedies will depend on the companies and their agreements.
  9. Two different measurements are circulating for the reduction. One uses 31 million standard cubic feet a day. Another uses 31 billion British thermal units a day. Cubic feet measure volume, while British thermal units measure energy. The matching numbers don't establish an exact conversion.
  10. The percentage comparisons also need care. About eight per cent compares the cut with Indonesian pipeline exports in 2024. A roughly nine per cent figure also uses Indonesian pipeline exports as its reference. Without a matching total immediately before the reduction, the current bilateral percentage isn't clear.
  11. Singapore's Energy Market Authority puts the reduction at less than two per cent of the country's total daily gas demand. That's the share of Singapore's overall needs. The authority says sufficient energy supplies and contingency arrangements are available to maintain stable electricity supply.
  12. Singapore is also ready to obtain more liquefied natural gas if needed. That readiness gives it another supply option, though replacement terms and costs would still matter to the companies involved. A small share of national demand doesn't tell an affected importer what replacing its lost gas would cost.
  13. Wildfire smoke from Borneo and Sumatra has added tension to regional relations. President Prabowo Subianto criticised unnamed countries over the haze crisis. Indonesian officials have given domestic electricity supply as the reason for diverting gas. They haven't connected the decision to that dispute.
  14. Wong also identified exploring nuclear power and strengthening global partnerships as ways to improve energy security. Those are longer-term diversification options. The immediate commercial problem still concerns the gas already being reduced and the arrangements the affected companies make to deal with it.
  15. A separate importer notification pairs 17 billion British thermal units with an 18-day period. It's unclear whether that energy figure is a daily rate or how it relates to the full diversion. It therefore doesn't give a reliable date for restoring all the reduced exports.
  16. Singapore says it can sustain stable electricity supplies while the commercial arrangements are worked out. The affected companies still have to settle whether deliveries resume, substitutes are arranged or contractual remedies are pursued, and on what terms. Nobody has given a firm date for restoring the full announced reduction.

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