跳到内容
现在

冲突 · 导弹设施

伊朗展示地下武器库,但未能证明其可以在炮火下生产

伊朗在一处秘密地下建筑群展示导弹之际,该国议会议长向对手发出警告。该设施能否在轰炸下制造武器,仍未得到证实。

文字 阅读需 5 分钟 · 57 个来源

原语言视频

译自英文原文。

伊朗发布的地下武器库画面中,有一枚导弹被模糊处理。其他武器一排排清晰可见;唯独这枚被遮挡,但没有确切解释,也未说明其型号。模糊处理只是画面展示中的一个细节,并不能证明这是一种新型武器。⁠1

更大的未解问题,在于那枚被遮挡的导弹之外。2026年11月10日,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队航空航天部队展示了其所称的全新地下「导弹城」,画面中可见弹道导弹、巡航导弹及其发射系统。此次公布还伴随着一项更广泛的说法:将武器生产转移至地下,可以让制造工作在遭受猛烈轰炸时继续进行。但这次展示并未证明这种能力。⁠1⁠3

此次揭幕仪式在航空航天部队周期间举行。伊朗武装部队总参谋长阿里·阿卜杜拉希少将与伊斯兰革命卫队航空航天部队司令赛义德·马吉德·穆萨维准将出席。发布的画面显示,两位指挥官乘坐吉普车在建筑群内巡视,经过隧道和大厅里陈列的武器与装备。塔斯尼姆通讯社和迈赫尔通讯社报道了此次视察;这些报道证实了公开揭幕,但并非对设施战备状态的独立测试。⁠3⁠49

官方描述称,装备包括固体燃料和液体燃料导弹。发射装备包括运输—起竖—发射车——这种车辆可以运载导弹、将其竖起至发射位置并发射——以及发射筒。这些只是宽泛的类别,并非经过独立核实、能够确认画面中每一枚导弹的完整清单。公布信息中没有经过核实的、针对该地点的导弹数量、储存容量或生产速度。⁠3⁠1

甚至「新」这个词也需要谨慎看待。它描述的是军方如何介绍这一建筑群,但不能证明其建成时间、增加了多少产能,也不能确切证明它与此前展示的设施有所不同。新近公开的基地不一定是新建的。现有报道没有提供建造时间线,无法厘清这一差别。⁠49⁠50

伊朗也没有透露该设施的位置。因此,外界无法公开、具体地评估其所宣称的物理防护能力。报道揭幕仪式时使用德黑兰作为发稿地,并不意味着该建筑群位于德黑兰。军方展示了它希望对手看到的内部情况,同时对设施所在地保密。⁠1⁠5

储存不等于生产线

有关制造能力的说法早于此次参观。11月7日,伊斯兰革命卫队发言人侯赛因·莫赫比准将预告将展示一座地下导弹城,并宣布其他军事消息。他称,伊朗正推动将导弹和无人机生产从地面设施转入地下;这项工作不仅涉及储存,还包括他所说的「导弹生产城」。半岛电视台当天报道了地下生产这一说法,并将相关公告归于伊朗媒体的报道。⁠1⁠52

莫赫比认为,伊朗的专业技术、广阔领土和灵活的生产基础设施,将使武器生产即使在遭受猛烈轰炸时也能继续。这是对整体地下战略的官方评估,既不是经过测量的产量数据,也不能证明11月10日展示的这座特定建筑群内设有运作中的导弹或无人机生产线。⁠1⁠52

这种区别很重要,因为储存武器和补充武器回答的是不同的军事问题。一排排导弹可以传达具备报复能力的信息。持续制造则关乎设施遭受攻击时能否补充武器库存。展示前者,并不能证明后者。

公开信息依据的是官方公告和发布的影像,由新闻报道转述。这些信息并未独立核实该设施的建造历史、生产能力或遭袭时的抗毁能力。因此,展示背后可能确有规模庞大的设施,但不能据此将其宣称的生存能力视为已证实的事实。⁠49⁠50⁠52

与展示一同发出的警告

议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫在揭幕仪式上明确传达了政治信息。他在11月10日的一份公开声明中,将这一建筑群描述为伊朗捍卫独立、安全和领土完整决心的体现。他表示,尽管面临制裁、威胁和战时状况,战备状态、军事进步和团结仍能维持威慑力,并称武装部队即使「在战火之下」也在继续加强防御。⁠8⁠33

揭幕仪式的相关报道还提到了他对包括美国在内的伊朗对手发出的警告。迈赫尔通讯社的英文译文称,这番话是对敌人的警告,并提醒对方不要犯哪怕最轻微的错误。⁠2⁠8

不要误判。如果你们犯下哪怕最轻微的错误,伊朗都将毫不犹豫地迅速展开一场令人难以想象的防御。这一次,伊朗伊斯兰共和国武装部队将决定冲突的地理范围。

穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫,迈赫尔通讯社英文译文 8

这是一种报复威胁,并非宣布报复行动已经开始。它没有指出具体目标,也没有表示即将发射导弹。其目的是让对手相信,攻击无法解除伊朗的武装,而且伊朗可以自行选择回应地点。对于安全取决于这些警告是否会演变为攻击的人来说,公开威胁与实际行动之间的区别至关重要。

因此,这次揭幕展示了武器并传达了威慑信息,但核心的生产问题仍未得到解答。运转中的生产线、该设施的具体产量,以及遇袭期间仍能持续运作的证据,都有助于回答这一问题。然而,无论导弹阵列多么引人注目,都不能证明这些情况。伊朗已清楚传达其意图,但尚未提供证据,证明这座设施能在轰炸下继续生产。⁠1⁠52

来源37

在此处引用的来源中,Al Jazeera最先发布,比本报道播出早4天。 随后还有26家媒体发布。

5篇早期文章作为背景资料参阅。9家媒体未注明日期:irna.irGazete Pencerehaberglobal.comInstagramIranWireIsrael National News

按媒体查看所有来源

来自 37 家媒体的 57 个来源· 引用最多的优先

播出原貌
  1. Iran has displayed rows of missiles inside an underground complex.
  2. The Revolutionary Guards say moving weapons production underground will let them keep making arms under heavy bombardment. Iran's parliament speaker has tied the display to a warning to the United States. Can this complex actually keep producing weapons during an attack?
  3. Iran is keeping the site's location secret. That leaves outsiders unable to assess how much physical protection this particular installation offers. The military is showing the weapons inside while withholding where they're housed.
  4. The Revolutionary Guards' Aerospace Force unveiled the complex on November 10, 2026, during Aerospace Force Week. The military calls it a new “missile city.” It hasn't said when the installation was built.
  5. Major General Ali Abdollahi, the Iranian Armed Forces chief of staff, attended with Brigadier General Seyyed Majid Mousavi, the Aerospace Force commander. The commanders toured the complex in a jeep, passing rows of missiles and equipment in tunnels and halls.
  6. The weapons display included ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and their launch systems. Officials described both solid-fuel and liquid-fuel missiles. Those descriptions cover broad categories of weapons, with no complete inventory identifying every missile shown.
  7. The launch equipment included vehicles that carry a missile, raise it into firing position and launch it. Canisters were also displayed. Together, the missiles and launch equipment showed the arsenal the military wanted its adversaries to see.
  8. One missile was blurred in the released footage. Nobody has identified it or explained why it was obscured.
  9. The military hasn't disclosed a missile count or production rate for this site. Rows of weapons show what's being displayed, but they leave a different military question unanswered: how quickly Iran could make replacements while its facilities were being attacked.
  10. The production claim reaches beyond this installation. Revolutionary Guards spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi described a wider effort to move missile and drone production from above-ground facilities underground. He called the intended facilities “missile production cities,” extending the strategy beyond storing finished weapons.
  11. Mohebbi previewed the unveiling on November 7, three days before the tour. He said Iran's expertise, extensive territory and flexible production infrastructure would allow weapons production to continue even under heavy bombardment. That was his assessment of the broader underground strategy.
  12. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf gave the unveiling an explicit political purpose. In a public message that day, he said it reflected Iran's determination to protect its independence, security and territorial integrity. He portrayed military readiness, progress and cohesion as sustaining deterrence through sanctions, threats and wartime conditions.
  13. Ghalibaf said the armed forces kept strengthening defenses even “under the fire of war.” He warned adversaries, including the United States, against miscalculation and threatened a swift response to even the slightest mistake.
  14. Ghalibaf warned, “Do not miscalculate,” and threatened a “swift and unimaginable defense.” He added, “This time, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will dictate the geography of the conflict.” He was threatening retaliation if Iran's adversaries acted.
  15. His message sought to persuade adversaries that an attack would leave Iran able to retaliate and choose where to do so. The unveiling showed stored weapons and launch equipment. Whether this particular complex contains functioning production lines remains unclear, and Iran hasn't demonstrated that it can keep manufacturing weapons there under bombardment.

译文更新于

近期播出