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灾害 · 吉拉河泄流

帕因特罗克大坝泄流量可能达到每秒 3,000 立方英尺，吉拉河路口面临风险

计划泄流量将提高至原来的 12 倍，吉拉河沿岸的低水位路口面临威胁。下游影响可能持续到 11 月 17 日警报结束之后。

文字 阅读需 4 分钟 · 20 个来源

HeyDex

原语言视频

译自英文原文。

每秒 3,000 立方英尺是帕因特罗克大坝预计的峰值泄流量，是已公布运行计划中初始流量的 12 倍。这一增幅可能使亚利桑那州吉拉河沿岸的低水位路口变得无法通行。对下游居民来说，关键问题不只是有多少水从大坝流出，还包括这些水何时到达他们使用的道路。⁠1⁠3

美国国家气象局菲尼克斯办事处于 2026 年 11 月 10 日上午 8 点（MST）发布洪水警报，覆盖马里科帕县部分地区和尤马县东北部。预计下游河道沿线将发生洪水，低洼路口可能被淹。该警报并不是说整个县都被洪水淹没。警报有效期至 11 月 17 日上午 11 点（MST）。⁠1

警报上午 7:54 的情况通报显示，当时已经开始泄流。这只能说明水最迟当时已经开始从大坝流出，并不能独立核实闸门确切的开启时间。同样，预测也不能证明周二上午大坝已经以每秒 3,000 立方英尺的流量泄水。⁠1

更重要的区别在于，警报的有效期只有一周，而水流经河道所需的时间要长得多。公布的水库排空时间和下游行程时间都延伸至 11 月 17 日之后。警报到期本身并不意味着路口安全。

分阶段增流，而非一次洪峰

据《尤马太阳报》11 月 9 日报道，韦尔顿-莫霍克灌溉排水区在一份公告中列出了运行计划。负责泄流的机构是美国陆军工兵团。计划先以相对较低的流量泄水，周二傍晚将其提高一倍，随后计划于周四大幅增加流量。该计划中的每个流量数字都代表计划运行参数，而不是一系列实测流量。⁠3

已公布的泄流计划

  1. 11 月 10 日，星期二，MST 上午 6 点

    计划以每秒 250 立方英尺的流量开始泄水。

    3
  2. 11 月 10 日，星期二，MST 下午 6 点

    计划将流量提高至每秒 500 立方英尺，并维持至周四上午。

    3
  3. 11 月 12 日，星期四，全天

    计划将流量提高至每秒 3,000 立方英尺，并持续泄水直至水库排空。

    3

按最终计划流量运行时，预计还需 12–15 天才能排空水库。因此，周四是计划开始加大泄流量的时间，而不是作业结束的时间。原定上午 6 点开始泄水，以及之后通报称泄流已开始，这两点本身并不能证明发生了延误或存在不一致。⁠3⁠1

帕因特罗克大坝是吉拉河流域的一项防洪工程。陆军工兵团表示，该工程的作用是拦蓄可能造成危险的水流，以保护下游地区，包括吉拉河下游和帝国谷。这一总体用途不能说明此次泄流的具体运行原因，也不能免除对水流离开蓄水区后继续向下游移动的考量。⁠18⁠17

下游：更漫长且不确定的时间进程

该灌溉排水区的公告给出了到下游三个地点的大致行程时间：到达戴特兰需 14–15 天，到达第 57E 大道需 18–19 天，到达多姆需 21–23 天。随着情况变化，这些估算可能会调整。关键是，已发布的内容没有明确说明这段行程时间从何时开始计算，因此不应将这些数字擅自换算成确定的日历到达日期。⁠3

公告还预测了沿途不同地点的最大流量：戴特兰为每秒 2,000 立方英尺，多姆谷一带为每秒 1,000 立方英尺。这两个数字都不是当地已有水量的测量值，也都不能代替大坝预计的每秒 3,000 立方英尺泄流量。它们描述的是下游预测中不同地点的情况。⁠3

该灌溉排水区表示，将与尤马县公共工程部门协调，移除吉拉河沿岸 13 处道路过水路口，以应对预计的流量。这是协调与拆除计划，并不代表这 13 处路口已经拆除或关闭。部分土路和河流过水路口可能暂时关闭或无法通行。⁠3

本报道可用的材料中，没有列出经确认因本次事件而关闭的路口。戴特兰、第 57E 大道和多姆是预测地点，并非经核实的关闭路口清单。本报道也没有确认发生财产损失、人员受伤或疏散。不能把这些信息范围上的限制误认为所有路口都开放或安全。⁠1⁠3

下一次预定运行调整是在周二下午 6 点（MST）将流量提高到每秒 500 立方英尺，之后按计划于周四逐步提高至每秒 3,000 立方英尺。接下来需要关注的是实际泄流是否按计划进行、下游到达时间估算是否变化，以及哪些路口会受到针对本次事件的交通管制。该灌溉排水区表示，将继续监测情况，与陆军工兵团和尤马县协调，并发布后续更新。⁠3

该灌溉排水区给驾驶员的指引很明确：遵守路障和道路封闭标志；路口关闭时规划替代路线；绝不要试图驾车穿过或涉过流动的水。不要把不确定的到达时间预测当作保证，更不值得为走一条熟悉的捷径冒险。⁠3

来源9

在此处引用的来源中，24X7 News最先发布，比本报道播出早2天。 随后还有3家媒体发布。
  1. 24X7 News
  2. Yuma Sun
  3. National Weather Service
  4. Nivelmap
  5. HeyDay News

5家媒体未注明日期：www.army.milforth.newsmaricopa.govArizona Water Observatoryoclc.org

按媒体查看所有来源

来自 9 家媒体的 20 个来源· 引用最多的优先

播出原貌
  1. Painted Rock Dam is sending water toward downstream road crossings. Releases are expected to climb to 3,000 cubic feet per second, threatening to flood low-lying routes along the Gila River. The unresolved issue is when that water reaches downstream crossings, and which routes will become impassable.
  2. The flood warning covers parts of Maricopa County and northeastern Yuma County. The concern follows the downstream river corridor, where rising water can cut across low-water crossings. People using those routes could lose a familiar way through the area.
  3. Releases were underway by Tuesday morning, November 10. The warning's morning report doesn't give drivers an arrival time for water farther downstream. That depends on how releases build and how the water moves along the river. The operating plan stretches well beyond the first day.
  4. Forecasters expect the dam's release to peak at 3,000 cubic feet per second over the next couple of days. That's a rate of water flow. It's the projected peak, and shouldn't be read as the amount already leaving the dam.
  5. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is the agency releasing the water. The Wellton-Mohawk Irrigation Drainage District announced the operating schedule ahead of the release. Its plan calls for several increases, followed by continued releases until the reservoir is empty.
  6. Painted Rock is a flood-control project in the Gila River drainage basin. It's designed to hold potentially dangerous flows and protect downstream areas, including the lower Gila and Imperial Valley. Water released from that storage still has to move through the downstream corridor.
  7. The announced increase is twelvefold from the initial planned rate. The district laid out that schedule on November 9, before releases began. Each level describes planned operations. Conditions along the river will depend on the water actually released and its progress downstream.
  8. The plan starts at 250 cubic feet per second at six Tuesday morning. It doubles to 500 at six that evening. Thursday's planned 3,000 would be twelve times the starting rate.
  9. The 500-cubic-feet-per-second stage was meant to hold until Thursday morning. Releases would then climb through the day. Once they reach 3,000, emptying the reservoir is estimated to take another twelve to fifteen days. Thursday marks the planned ramp-up, and the release continues afterward.
  10. Water could take about fourteen to fifteen days to reach Dateland, eighteen to nineteen days to reach Avenue 57E, and twenty-one to twenty-three days to reach Dome. Those are approximate planning estimates, and they can change.
  11. The announcement doesn't say exactly when that travel-time clock starts, so those estimates can't give residents firm arrival dates. It forecasts maximum flow at Dateland of 2,000 cubic feet per second. Through Dome Valley, the expected maximum is 1,000. Those forecasts describe different downstream locations.
  12. The district plans to coordinate with Yuma County Public Works on removing thirteen road crossings to accommodate the anticipated flows. Some dirt roads and river crossings may temporarily close or become impassable. Officials haven't identified a confirmed closure list for this event.
  13. Dateland, Avenue 57E and Dome are forecast locations, so naming them doesn't mean their crossings have closed. The district says it'll keep monitoring conditions, coordinate with the Corps and Yuma County, and provide updates. Event-specific restrictions and revised arrival estimates will guide travel decisions.
  14. The higher release is planned for November 12. The current warning expires at eleven a.m. on November 17, Arizona time. But the reservoir-emptying estimate and downstream travel estimates extend the concern beyond that warning window.
  15. Water could still be moving downstream after the bulletin expires. A warning's end time can't tell a driver whether a crossing is passable. Obey barricades and road-closure signs, use alternate routes where crossings are closed, and never drive through or cross moving water.

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