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特斯拉在华销量下跌66%，上海工厂10月大部分交付量运往海外

2026年10月，特斯拉交付给中国买家的汽车仅有8,817辆。出口推高了上海工厂的批发交付总量，但国内销量下滑已远不止一个疲弱月份。

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原语言视频

译自英文原文。

**8,817辆。**这是特斯拉2026年10月在中国面向买家的全部销量，约为一年前的三分之一，也是自2022年7月以来国内销量最差的一个月。然而，该公司上海工厂的批发交付总量却有所上升。这并非统计上的矛盾：大多数汽车都运往了海外。⁠1

10月批发交付总量为67,829辆，其中59,012辆为出口。海外发货占交付量的87%，并且远远抵消了中国境内销量同比下降66%的影响。在同一家工厂、同一个月里，向海外运送中国制造汽车的业务可以不断扩大，而向中国客户交付这些汽车的业务则在萎缩。⁠1⁠3

8,81710月交付给中国买家的汽车 13
59,01210月从上海出口的汽车 13
−15%截至10月的国内销量同比变化 12

这些数据来自援引中国乘用车市场信息联席会的已发表报道，包括Electrek于11月10日发布的报道，以及CnEVPost和CarNewsChina于11月9日发布的报道。尚未对该协会的原始公告进行独立核实。报告中的总数确实完全吻合：批发交付量减去出口量，剩下的正是8,817辆国内销量。⁠1⁠2⁠3

这一区分很重要，因为批发交付量是涵盖国内和海外目的地的交付指标。它既不单指中国客户的购买量，也不代表工厂当月的产量。10月批发交付量同比增长10.3%，这并不意味着特斯拉在中国境内的销量增长了。⁠1

数据核算具体呈现了这种分化。与2025年10月相比，出口增加了23,521辆，而国内交付减少了17,189辆。净结果是批发交付量增加6,332辆。这些计算解释了总量为何上升，却没有解释特斯拉的交付结构为何发生变化。⁠1

日历因素只能解释一部分

9月国内销量为64,837辆，因此10月降幅约为86%。但这两个月在特斯拉的交付周期中处于不同阶段。公司通常在季度初侧重出口，在季度末侧重国内交付。9月还推出了促销活动，并在季末加紧交付，因此很难把月度跌幅直接解读为消费者购买意愿同比例崩塌。⁠1

更公平的比较对象是其他季度首月。2026年，特斯拉1月在中国境内交付18,485辆，4月交付25,956辆，7月交付27,249辆。10月的8,817辆还不到此前这些月份最低值的一半。季度节奏确实相关，但仅仅提及这一点，并不足以解释本轮低谷的严重程度。⁠1

同月同比数据也很难归因于日历因素。10月国内销量从2024年的40,485辆降至2025年的26,006辆，再降至2026年的8,817辆。在这几个10月，出口量则朝相反方向变化，从27,795辆增至35,491辆，再增至59,012辆。⁠1

不过，与2022年7月的比较也需要谨慎。Electrek报道称，在当时销量触底期间，上海工厂曾部分停工进行生产线升级，而今年10月工厂正常运营。根据Electrek援引CnEVPost的数据，最新的国内销量高度集中在一款车型上：Model Y为7,807辆，Model 3为1,010辆。⁠1

仅凭交付量，无法确定是需求减弱促使公司将汽车分配给出口、优先出口限制了国内交付，还是两者都有影响。这些总量并不能衡量新增订单、未交付订单积压、未售库存、盈利能力或就业情况。Electrek将这些数据解读为需求减弱的证据，但报告中的交付拆分本身并不能证实这一因果解释。⁠1

缺口在今年10月之前就已出现

更值得关注的信号是累计降幅。2026年1月至10月，特斯拉在中国境内销售了389,905辆汽车，较2025年同期的458,710辆下降15%。截至9月，同比缺口为11.9%。10月扩大了既有差距，并非整个问题的起点。⁠1⁠2

这是Electrek四年对比中1月至10月国内销量最低的一年。销量比2024年同期低约22%，减少约110,000辆。销量走势已从2024年的增长转为2025年的下降，并在2026年进一步下滑。一个格外疲弱的月份，出现在更长期的退潮之中。⁠1

出口呈现出不同的走势。截至10月，上海工厂已向海外发运420,984辆汽车，同比增长101%，超过特斯拉在中国境内的交付量。此前一年同期，国内销量超过出口量两倍以上。这表明上海工厂汽车的去向发生了显著逆转，却不能说明该厂已完全找不到买家。⁠1

此外，前方还有一项政策期限。Electrek报道称，中国计划从2027年4月1日起将电动汽车出口退税率从13%下调至9%，具体适用税率由海关申报日期决定。这让出口商有理由考虑发货时间，但并不能证明这一计划中的变化导致了特斯拉10月的车辆分配安排。⁠1

反弹需要克服什么

11月和12月将检验随着季度推进，国内销量能回升多少。2025年11月，特斯拉在中国境内交付了73,145辆汽车；当年12月交付93,843辆。这些是历史参照数据，并非对2026年余下月份的预测。⁠1

即使重复这两个月的销量，也无法弥补10月给季度对比造成的影响。根据报告中的月度数据，特斯拉2025年第四季度在中国境内的交付量合计为192,994辆。今年10月交付8,817辆后，11月和12月需要合计交付184,177辆才能追平该季度，比去年这两个月的交付总量高出约10.3%。这是一个算术基准，并非预测。⁠1

因此，大幅反弹将很重要，但其本身并不能证明10月只是排期问题。订单、库存以及特斯拉的车辆分配理由，将有助于区分交付时点变化与潜在需求减弱。目前已确立的结果已经相当清楚：出口增长推高了10月批发交付总量，而特斯拉国内销量的缺口则进一步扩大。

来源16

在此处引用的来源中，CnEVPost最先发布，比本报道播出早37小时。 随后还有8家媒体发布。
  1. CnEVPost
  2. CarNewsChina.com
  3. FonTech.sk
  4. Somos Eléctricos
  5. Qoo Media
  6. Carup.se
  7. Google News last hour 2
  8. Межа
  9. UA.NEWS
  10. HeyDay News

4篇早期文章作为背景资料参阅。4家媒体未注明日期：CnEVDataeletric-vehicles.comEVX NewsInvesting.com 香港

按媒体查看所有来源

来自 16 家媒体的 19 个来源· 引用最多的优先

播出原貌
  1. Tesla sold 66 percent fewer cars to buyers in China. Its Shanghai operation still increased total wholesale deliveries, because most cars went overseas. That leaves a growing gap between exports and local sales. The test now is whether domestic deliveries recover later in the quarter, or keep shrinking.
  2. Shanghai has already shipped more Teslas abroad than the company has sold inside China this year. Exports reached 420,984 vehicles through October, up 101 percent. A year earlier, domestic sales had exceeded exports by more than two to one.
  3. That reversal changes how to read the factory's delivery totals. Wholesale counts vehicles delivered for both domestic customers and export. To understand Tesla's business inside China, those destinations have to be separated. October's figures show just how far apart they've moved.
  4. Exports took 87 percent of October's wholesale deliveries. Of 67,829 vehicles, 59,012 went overseas. Subtract those exports and 8,817 remain for buyers inside China. The larger total and the much smaller domestic figure describe the same month's deliveries.
  5. Wholesale deliveries increased 10.3 percent from a year earlier, while exports rose about 66 percent. Overseas shipments more than offset the fall in domestic deliveries. Those figures measure deliveries, so they don't tell us how many vehicles the factory produced during October.
  6. Domestic sales fell from 40,485 in October 2024 to 26,006 a year later, then to 8,817. Exports moved the other way, rising from 27,795 to 35,491 and then 59,012. Comparing the same month across years still shows a deepening domestic decline.
  7. October was Tesla's weakest domestic month since July 2022. Back then, the Shanghai factory was partly shut for production-line upgrades. This October, it operated normally. That makes the latest low different from a month when a partial shutdown limited the factory's activity.
  8. Model Y accounted for 7,807 of October's domestic sales. Model 3 contributed just 1,010. Together, those two models make up the 8,817 total, showing how heavily Tesla's remaining deliveries to Chinese buyers were concentrated in the Model Y.
  9. September's domestic total was 64,837 vehicles. October's 8,817 represented a drop of about 86 percent. But September closed a quarter, while October opened one. Tesla typically emphasizes exports early in a quarter and deliveries inside China toward its end.
  10. January brought 18,485 domestic sales. April recorded 25,956, and July reached 27,249. October's 8,817 was less than half the previous low among those quarter-opening months. The usual delivery rhythm alone doesn't explain the size of this decline.
  11. September also included promotions and a quarter-end delivery push. Moving a delivery between months can change a monthly total without an equal change in customers' willingness to buy. But the longer comparison shows that Tesla's domestic shortfall had already built up before October.
  12. Tesla sold 389,905 vehicles inside China through October, down 15 percent from 458,710 a year earlier. The corresponding totals were 462,355 in 2023 and 500,688 in 2024. The latest result is the lowest in that four-year comparison.
  13. The annual shortfall widened from 11.9 percent through September to 15 percent through October. Sales are now about 22 percent below the same period in 2024, or roughly 110,000 vehicles lower. The earlier trend had turned from 8.3 percent growth in 2024 to an 8.4 percent decline in 2025.
  14. Tesla delivered 73,145 vehicles inside China in November last year, followed by 93,843 in December. Those historical totals show the scale of the late-quarter rebound a year earlier. November and December 2026 will show how much domestic sales recover this time.
  15. China also plans to reduce its electric-vehicle export rebate from 13 percent to 9 percent on April first, 2027. The applicable rate depends on the customs declaration date. That creates a deadline for overseas shipments, but it doesn't tell us why Tesla allocated October's deliveries this way.
  16. We don't yet know how much of the domestic fall reflects weaker demand or a decision to prioritize exports. Later deliveries will help separate a temporary trough from a continuing contraction. October's wholesale growth still left Tesla's January-through-October sales to Chinese buyers down 15 percent.

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