政治 · 阿尔伯塔省公投持续报道 · 第 2 篇，共 2 篇

阿尔伯塔省 120 万提前投票者带来十张选票计票考验

据报道，星期一投票前的提前参与人数已达 120 万。每位选民对应十张独立选票，如今使所称的 48 小时计票窗口承受压力。

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译自英文原文。

持续报道第 12 天

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完整报道
  • 暂无标注日期的事件
  1. 第 1 次更新艾伯塔省的投票无法带来独立，但投票率仍可能影响其未来。
  2. 第 2 次更新阿尔伯塔省 120 万提前投票者带来十张选票计票考验当前位置

自上次报道以来的变化

4 天后

当时

艾伯塔省的投票无法带来独立，但投票率仍可能影响其未来。

现在

据报道，星期一投票前的提前参与人数已达 120 万。每位选民对应十张独立选票，如今使所称的 48 小时计票窗口承受压力。

HeyDay News 于 10 月 14 日报道阿尔伯塔省公投投票开始时，最迫切的问题是哪些人会参与，以及初步的分离投票可能意味着什么。如今，据报道已有 120 万人在公投日之前投票，另一项考验也变得迫在眉睫：阿尔伯塔省选举局能否在其所称的 48 小时窗口内完成十项分别进行的人工计票。3 19

提前投票于 10 月 17 日星期六结束。星期一的投票包含十个问题，分别印在不同选票上，因此工作量远超单看选民人数所能体现的规模。阿尔伯塔省选举局希望在投票站关闭后 48 小时内公布结果；不列颠哥伦比亚省前首席选举官基思·阿彻警告称，除非计票人员的招募情况好于此前报道，否则这可能难以实现。1

关键事实

  1. 120 万据报提前投票及特别选票投票人数 3
  2. 10每位选民对应的独立选票数 119
  3. 48 小时选举机构所称的法定计票时限 19

这些数字反映的是参与情况和行政工作，并非结果。Global News 报道，超过 703,000 人提前投票；计入特别选票后，总数为 120 万。将提前投票人数加到合计数上会重复计算选民。任何一个数字都无法确定最终投票率或对任何提案的支持程度。3

期限不等于预测

规则与实际履行规则的能力之间的区别很重要。阿尔伯塔省选举局发言人米歇尔·格尼告诉 CBC，法律要求在 48 小时内完成计票，而且立法变更排除了计票器——即用于清点选票的机器。CTV 后续报道则称，选举局希望在该时限内公布结果。阿彻的警告质疑的是该机构的人员配置能力，而非格尼所述要求是否存在。19 1

投票计划于 10 月 19 日星期一阿尔伯塔夏令时间晚上 8 点结束。48 小时后是 10 月 21 日星期三晚上 8 点。这是所称的计票时限，并非保证。将首先统计分离问题的选票，但要等所有投票站都关闭后才公布结果；随后预计会随着计票推进陆续发布信息。19 1

现有报道没有说明还有多少计票岗位空缺，也没有说明错过期限后会采取何种补救措施。计票缓慢可能反映了所需工作量和现有人员配置。仅凭速度无法确定选票是否得到了正确统计。

早期投票需求十分旺盛。提前投票首日有超过 174,000 人投票，第二天有 186,000 人；相比之下，2023 年省选提前投票日的平均投票人数约为 151,000 人。首日有 20 个地点因有人等候而延长开放时间。19 25

行政统计类别仍需核对。特别选票处理进度的更新数字从 454,000 增至超过 490,000。我们 10 月 14 日报道中的申请数和邮寄数指的是不同阶段：阿尔伯塔省选举局 9 月 29 日的更新记录显示，超过 652,000 份选票包已获批准并寄出。寄出的选票包不等于已投出的选票，也没有最终分类数据能够对应申请、送达、寄回和获接受的选票数量。同样，印制的 4,500 万张选票反映的是生产数量，而非投票参与人数。19 6 45

最后一天之前的投票渠道问题

一些卡尔加里选民等候了超过 90 分钟。强风导致阿萨巴斯卡一个提前投票站停电数小时，阿尔伯塔省选举局承诺延长开放时间，以弥补损失的时段。这些中断显示投票渠道承受压力，但不能证明哪一方因此失去了支持者。22 25

一场蔓延的火灾导致温赖特社区综合中心提前投票站于 10 月 17 日关闭。阿尔伯塔省选举局将劳埃德明斯特的 Border Inn 和维米利恩 Elks Hall 列为第 86 选区内的替代地点。关键在于，这些是提前投票安排，并非为星期一宣布的替代地点。386

选举日选民必须前往指定投票地点，除非选举官员另行安排。温赖特的关闭通知没有豁免这一规定，也没有确定受影响选民星期一的安排。不应假定星期六的替代地点安排仍然适用。46 386

已填写的特别选票邮寄包必须在 10 月 16 日阿尔伯塔时间下午 5 点前送达；当天寄出并不够。根据我们 10 月 14 日所述的程序，如果选民在 10 月 18 日下午 5 点前未被标记为已收到选票并已投票，就可以亲自投票；之后送达的特别选票将被拒收。个人选票的收件状态仍然很重要；新公布的总数无法厘清这一点。

场地空间有限，也使一些代表已注册第三方广告商的监票员无法进入部分地点。这限制了观察，但并非篡改证据。此前关于养老院投票站未开放以及交通障碍的担忧，同样仍是有关投票渠道的问题，而不是结果发生变化的证明。19

星期一的投票究竟能决定什么

有两处报道错误值得明确更正。CBC 10 月 15 日的圆桌讨论报道写的是“10 月 20 日星期一”；CTV 10 月 16 日的集会报道写的是 10 月 19 日。阿尔伯塔省选举局确认，投票日是 2026 年 10 月 19 日星期一。10 月 20 日是星期二。18 15 41

Global News 10 月 16 日的报道称当前公投具有约束力，而 CBC 10 月 16 日的报道则称其不具约束力。我们 10 月 14 日的报道也解释了其初步性质。经核实的政府表述将星期一的选择与未来可能举行的、有约束力的分离公投区分开来：第 10 题询问阿尔伯塔省应留在加拿大，还是启动宪法规定的法律程序，以举行那场后续投票。17 12 364

本次更新未能独立查证具有实际效力的不具约束力条款，但本文没有任何内容能够证明阿尔伯塔省会自动分离，或自动负有举行另一场投票的义务。支持启动程序的一方获得多数，可能形成政治授权；但这不会使阿尔伯塔省变成另一个国家。后续分离投票的日期尚未确定。12 364

另外九项决定也各自具有重要意义。其中五个问题涉及移民，包括加强省级控制、可能向部分临时居民收取医疗和教育费用、部分福利的等待期，以及与尚未定义的“获阿尔伯塔省批准的移民”类别挂钩的资格。史密斯提出的每年 1,900 美元医疗保险费是一项提议，并非已通过的居民法案。12

财政方面的论据尚无定论。该省估计，临时居民每年缴纳 1.5 亿美元税款，并获得超过 10 亿美元的服务。一位卡尔加里大学经济学家质疑这种比较，因为按这种计算方式，普通阿尔伯塔居民获得的服务价值也超过所计入的税款。这种比较不能证明排除某些人群会带来净节省。实际影响取决于最终规则，可能包括出台新法案，或延迟获得医疗、教育和支持服务。12

第九题提议修改宪法，使省级法律在省级或共同管辖领域与联邦法律冲突时优先适用。该提案所述门槛要求至少七个省份、代表加拿大一半人口。我们此前报道中的第七题涉及废除参议院，这同样需要修改宪法并获得所有省份一致同意。阿尔伯塔省的多数票无法单独实现其中任何一项。25

条约权利不能被简单留待以后处理。锡克西卡族首领塞缪尔·克劳福特表示，原住民第一民族被排除在早期、有实质意义的协商之外；他还称族人受到威胁，并说已安排巴士供人前往投票。他所属的是锡克西卡族，而非 CBC 报道所称的六族。有关威胁的说法仍是他的陈述。12 375

此前的一项分离请愿于 5 月 13 日被撤销；5 月 20 日是法律评论发表日期，并非经确认的第二次判决。那项请愿与星期一的第 10 题属于不同的法律程序。我们此前的报道提到，部分上诉暂缓令允许核验签名并发布相关信息，同时其他限制仍然有效。目前没有新证据能够确定上诉的最终结果。295 380

竞选活动已超出我们 10 月 14 日报道的计划：卡尼于 10 月 15 日在卡尔加里举行团结集会，随后在埃德蒙顿 EXPO Centre 举办活动。卡尼、史密斯和博励治都呼吁阿尔伯塔省留在加拿大。但团结表象下存在分歧：史密斯支持第 1 至第 9 题，卡尼则呼吁否决这些问题。10 6 9 17

Global News 报道的一项 Ipsos 调查访问了 800 多名阿尔伯塔居民，结果显示 70% 希望留在加拿大，23% 支持举行有约束力的分离公投。由于没有提供调查时间及完整方法说明，不能将其视为我们此前讨论的另一项 9 月 Ipsos 样本的更新，也不能将其当作投票结果。2

一些希望留在加拿大的戴蒙德谷居民仍表示，他们选择支持启动程序，是为了向渥太华施压。独立倡议者科里·摩根和基思·威尔逊表示，无论结果如何，竞选活动都会继续。这使得“每一张支持启动程序的选票都表达了对独立的既定意愿”这一说法更加复杂。12 5

任何未来的脱离都需要就港口、边境、贸易、债务和条约权利进行谈判；星期一的初步选择不会改变现有边界和出口路线。眼下的任务不那么具有推测性：确保符合资格的选民能够前往指定投票站，然后完成并解释十项人工计票，不要把对程序选项的选择与独立混为一谈。

播出原貌 44 行
  1. On October 14 we reported voting opened. Now early voting tops one million. Alberta's ten-question referendum requires ten separate ballot papers, all counted by hand. The immediate question is whether officials can deliver the count within forty-eight hours.
  2. The latest combined advance and special-voting figure is reportedly 1.2 million, including more than 703,000 advance voters. That's participation before referendum day. Each voter can generate ten papers for workers to sort, check and count.
  3. Advance voting ended Saturday, October 17. Monday's vote closes at eight in the evening, Alberta time. Elections Alberta hopes to produce results within forty-eight hours, taking that counting horizon to Wednesday evening.
  4. Elections Alberta described forty-eight hours as a legal completion requirement. Its later promise to aim for that window leaves a practical problem. Former British Columbia election chief Keith Archer warns that staffing could make it difficult to meet.
  5. Archer says completion may be unlikely unless recruitment has gone better than described. Elections Alberta says legislative changes ruled out tabulators, the machines that count ballots. Workers will count the separation question first, and release results only after every polling station closes.
  6. Results are then expected to arrive as counting proceeds. A slow count can reflect the workload and staffing. Speed alone doesn't tell voters whether ballots were counted correctly.
  7. Referendum day is Monday, October 19. October 20 is Tuesday. That date error matters for anyone still planning to vote, especially people whose local advance station closed or whose special ballot hasn't reached election officials.
  8. More than 174,000 voted on the first advance day, followed by 186,000 on the second. An average advance day in the 2023 provincial election drew around 151,000. Twenty locations stayed open late on opening day because people were still waiting.
  9. Earlier cumulative advance totals passed 360,000, then 518,000, before topping 703,000. Those are successive snapshots. The 1.2 million combined figure already includes advance voters, so adding them again would double-count people.
  10. The special-ballot processing update rose from 454,000 to more than 490,000. Our earlier application and mailing figures described different stages. Elections Alberta still hasn't provided a final breakdown connecting applications, packages sent, returned ballots and accepted votes.
  11. The agency printed forty-five million ballot papers. That production figure reflects the ten-question workload. Officials describe more than one million early voters as roughly a third of eligible voters, but can't predict final participation.
  12. Some Calgary voters waited more than ninety minutes. In Athabasca, high winds knocked out power at an advance station for several hours. Officials promised extra opening time to replace the hours lost.
  13. A spreading fire closed the Wainwright Communiplex advance station on October 17. Elections Alberta named Border Inn in Lloydminster and Vermilion Elks Hall as alternatives within the electoral division. Those arrangements applied to advance voting.
  14. Monday voters must use their assigned polling place unless officials issue a reassignment. The Wainwright closure notice didn't provide a replacement for Monday. Displaced voters still need their actual Election Day arrangement confirmed.
  15. Elections Alberta operated 310 advance locations. Space constraints kept some third-party advertisers' scrutineers, the observers who watch voting, out of some locations. Earlier concerns also involved seniors' residence polls and transport. The new disruptions don't show which side lost participation.
  16. Completed special-ballot packages had to arrive by five on October 16. Mailing them that day wasn't enough. Under the previously announced procedure, someone still unmarked as received and voted at five on October 18 could vote in person. A later-arriving special ballot would then be rejected.
  17. Question ten offers a choice between remaining in Canada and starting the constitutional process toward a later binding separation referendum. The word binding describes that possible future vote. Monday's process choice leaves Alberta inside Canada.
  18. The current result is advisory. A process majority could give the government a political mandate, but wouldn't automatically compel another referendum. Our October 14 report described that preliminary status. No date has been set for a further separation vote.
  19. Question one concerns immigration control. The separation choice is question ten. Five questions address immigration, while nine questions sit alongside the separation choice. Those counts describe different parts of the same ten-question ballot.
  20. Question one seeks greater provincial control over immigration, lower immigration to sustainable levels and employment priority for Albertans. The government hasn't put a number on sustainable levels or defined how its proposed Alberta-approved immigrant category would work.
  21. Other proposals would charge some temporary residents for health care and education, delay some social benefits for a year, or tie access to provincial approval. Smith has floated a nineteen-hundred-dollar annual health premium. It's a proposal awaiting policy decisions.
  22. More than 43,000 temporary residents from Ukraine could have a stake in those service rules. Alberta's population reportedly grew by roughly 600,000 over five years. About twenty percent of that growth came from other provinces, and two-thirds from international migration.
  23. The province estimates temporary residents pay 150 million dollars in annual taxes and receive more than a billion dollars in services. A University of Calgary economist challenges that comparison because average Albertans also receive services worth more than the taxes counted this way.
  24. That leaves the claimed savings unresolved. Residents could face new bills or delays in schooling, care and support, depending on the rules governments eventually adopt.
  25. A September survey found fifty-four percent supported greater provincial immigration control. About forty-five percent supported limiting free health and education access. The stated margin of error was 2.8 points, nineteen times out of twenty. Those responses don't settle every proposed rule.
  26. Former premiers Rachel Notley, Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford urged voters to reject the immigration proposals. They warned Alberta could become less attractive to the talent it needs. Smith is asking for yes votes on questions one through nine.
  27. Question nine seeks constitutional changes allowing provincial laws to prevail over conflicting federal laws in provincial or shared areas. That requires support from at least seven provinces representing half Canada's population. Alberta can't make that change by voting alone.
  28. Federal authority has also protected routes important to Alberta, including against British Columbia's unsuccessful effort to obstruct the original Trans Mountain project. Question seven's Senate abolition proposal would likewise need constitutional change, including agreement from every province.
  29. Concordia professor Brooke Jeffrey calls the nine questions deliberately misleading and too complex. She argues they suggest options that require reopening the Constitution. Her criticism is a political assessment. Courts haven't invalidated the ballot on that basis.
  30. Samuel Crowfoot is chief of Siksika Nation. He says First Nations were excluded from early, meaningful engagement, and treaty rights must be addressed before separation proceeds. He says members received hateful calls and threats, and his nation arranged buses for voters.
  31. Crowfoot also says the nation sought help from the prime minister's office. A court quashed an earlier separation petition on May 13. May 20 was the date of legal commentary, rather than a second confirmed judgment. That earlier petition and Monday's question follow separate legal tracks.
  32. The later partial stay allowed signature verification and public reporting while other restrictions remained. The appeals' final outcome is still unresolved. First Nations consultation and treaty impacts remain part of the legal dispute surrounding the earlier petition.
  33. Carney and Smith have campaigned together for Alberta to remain in Canada. Smith says she marked her own ballot that way. Poilievre has also urged Albertans to stay. Carney wants voters to reject the other nine proposals, putting him at odds with Smith.
  34. Carney's Calgary rally took place October 15, followed by the Edmonton EXPO Centre event. Thousands attended the unity events. Those appearances have moved beyond the plans we described October 14, but their effect on voters will emerge only through the vote.
  35. Carney tied unity to economic projects, including the proposed Pacific Link pipeline. He projected more than 140,000 jobs in one speech. A separate description referred to thousands of Alberta jobs, with a different apparent scope. These are employment projections.
  36. The West Coast project was described as the first national-interest project designated under the Building Canada Act. That designation supports Carney's campaign argument, while construction, costs and the assumptions behind the employment forecast still need decisions and explanation.
  37. Seventy percent of those surveyed wanted Alberta to remain in Canada. Twenty-three percent supported a binding separation referendum. Seven percent were undecided or wouldn't vote. That survey measures intentions about Alberta's future, while actual ballots will decide Monday's result.
  38. The poll surveyed more than 800 Albertans. Its field dates and full methodology weren't supplied, so it can't be treated as an update of the different September Ipsos sample we discussed earlier.
  39. Support for moving toward separation was twenty-nine percent outside Edmonton and Calgary, twenty percent in Edmonton, and twenty-one percent in Calgary. Those geographic differences describe the survey. They don't reveal how many supporters will actually cast ballots.
  40. Hundreds attended a Let Alberta Decide independence rally outside the legislature. Corey Morgan says the movement will continue whatever the result. Keith Wilson also describes this vote as a step in a longer campaign, rather than its final decision.
  41. Some Diamond Valley residents who prefer staying in Canada say they'd choose the process option to pressure Ottawa. Others fear damage to economic and social ties. A process vote can therefore express different intentions, complicating claims about an independence mandate.
  42. Farmers and businesses rely on trade across provincial boundaries, including British Columbia ports and pipeline routes. Any eventual separation would require negotiations over those arrangements. Monday's preliminary vote leaves existing borders and export routes in place.
  43. The Supreme Court's 1998 secession ruling requires negotiation after a clear majority supports a clear secession question. The Clarity Act sets no fixed percentage. Borders, debts, assets, minority protections and Indigenous and treaty rights would all need to be addressed.
  44. Smith has promised to avoid a binding separation vote after a remain result while she's premier. Her promise is political and limited to her tenure. Monday's ten decisions still await voters, followed by ten hand counts within the stated forty-eight-hour window.

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