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商业 · 阿拉伯航空业

冲突与成本挤压枢纽，阿拉伯航空公司面临$4.3 billion亏损

AACO成员在2025年实现US$11 billion利润后，正面临急剧逆转：需求降幅超过运力，而燃油成本占比不断上升。

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阿拉伯航空运输组织（AACO）预测，其成员航空公司2026年合计将亏损US$4.3 billion，而就在一年前，它们还实现了约US$11 billion的利润。预计恶化US$15.3 billion，凸显了这些航空公司的业绩急剧逆转；它们的枢纽连接着远超中东和北非地区的旅客与货运。这是对全年业绩的预测，并非已经报告的损失金额。⁠5

业务两端都承受着压力。冲突相关的干扰正在削弱客流、增加运营难度，而能源成本上涨则吞噬了更多航空公司的支出。预计成员航空公司的客运需求收缩幅度将远大于其提供的运力。这意味着，飞机满载率降低之际，航空公司还要承担更沉重的成本负担。⁠5⁠3

AACO在多哈举行的第59届年度大会上，以电子形式向代表提供了年度报告。工作会议于11月3日举行，大会于11月2日开幕。卡塔尔航空主办了此次会议，由该公司集团首席执行官Hamad Al-Khater担任主席。超过200名高管和行业利益相关方出席。该协会代表39家航空公司，包括卡塔尔航空、阿联酋航空、阿提哈德航空和海湾航空。协会的整体预测并不意味着每一家成员公司都会亏损。⁠5⁠3

头条亏损背后的挤压

这并非延续糟糕的2025年。成员航空公司当年以10.8%的净利润率收官。客运量增长7.6%，高于5.8%的运力增幅；货运量增长4%。这些航空公司进入2026年时业务仍有盈利，需求也在增长。⁠5

继2025年业绩非常强劲之后，我们在2026年开局时势头强劲。遗憾的是，这一势头未能延续。

Abdul Wahab Teffaha 11

AACO秘书长在行业演讲中表示，2023年末开始的地区危机今年影响范围扩大，再度给航空运输网络带来压力。这份前景报告描述了由此造成的损害，但并未将任何具体袭击、关闭或航线改道归结为某个金额的损失。⁠11⁠5

关键事实

  1. −10.3%2026年成员航空公司客运需求预测 5
  2. −4.7%2026年成员航空公司客运运力预测 5
  3. −5.2%2026年成员航空公司货运量预测 5

客运指标衡量的是距离，而不只是登机人数。收益客公里是付费旅客人数乘以旅行距离；可用座公里是提供的座位数乘以飞行距离。两者预计降幅之间的差距很重要：航空公司预计会削减供给，但削减速度不足以跟上需求下滑。AACO预计，2026年客座率——即已使用座位运力所占比例——为77%，低于2025年的81.8%。⁠5⁠11

货运也在逆转。按货物吨公里衡量，其预计收缩是在去年增长之后出现的；货物吨公里是货运重量乘以运输距离。这是对运输活动减少的预测，并非宣布货运收入将下降5.2%，也不是已经取消的货运量统计。对于使用该地区枢纽的企业而言，令人担忧的是，网络承受运营压力的同时，运输货物却在减少。⁠5

燃油成本又带来一重挤压。Euronews在11月5日对年度报告的报道指出，预计2026年燃油将占成员航空公司运营成本的37.3%，高于2025年的27.9%，上升9.4个百分点。这些数字是燃油占成本总额的比例，并非预测燃油价格本身将上涨37.3%。全球相应比例为31.4%和25.4%，这意味着预计成员航空公司承担的燃油负担将重于整个行业。⁠3

AACO预计，其成员航空公司的营业利润率将转为负值，达到负2.7%；2025年则为正11.8%。这一指标衡量经营业务所得收益，区别于净业绩，也不是应加到US$4.3 billion预测亏损上的另一笔损失。⁠5

地区性逆转，而非全球性亏损

全球航空业正在放缓，但其前景仍有明显不同。预计2026年全球净利润约为US$23 billion。根据Euronews刊载的年度报告数据，若不计COVID-19时期及其后续影响，这将是12年来最低的利润。这个限定很重要：这并不是说利润将低于疫情时期的业绩。⁠3

预计全球客运需求将增长2.1%，低于2025年的5.3%；全球货运增长预计将从3.3%放缓至不超过0.7%。这两项仍意味着增长，与AACO成员航空公司预计出现的收缩不同。由于全球客运运力增速低于需求增速，预计全球客座率将从83.5%升至83.9%。地区和全球平均值反映的是不同的运营环境。⁠11

航空公司通过更新机队解决问题的空间也有限。AACO表示，飞机、发动机和备件交付延迟，限制了替换计划并推高运营成本。2025年全球飞机订单积压量为17,250架，预计到2026年底将超过18,000架。其执行委员会已指示一个工作组研究共享备件库存，并可能将合作范围扩大到采购。这是正在研究的运营应对措施，并非已经实现的复苏。⁠5

一项预测，多种航空公司业绩

整体亏损预估与扩张计划并存。卡塔尔航空告诉Euronews，该公司正在增加飞往欧洲目的地的冬季航班，包括伦敦希思罗机场和法兰克福，并扩大亚洲、非洲和澳大利亚航线的服务。阿联酋航空表示，公司仍在推进机队改装，相关投资达US$7 billion，并于10月开通每日一班的赫尔辛基航线。个别航空公司的增长计划并不能否定协会层面的整体亏损预测，也无法说明哪些航空公司能够躲过低迷。⁠3

AACO预计，各航空公司的表现将因枢纽所在地以及受冲突影响市场的风险敞口而异。该组织尚未将预计US$4.3 billion的亏损按航空公司逐一分配。缺少这一细分数据，意味着头条数字无法让旅客、员工或投资者了解任何特定航空公司的情况。⁠5

多哈会议还反对一项拟于2029年扩大欧洲排放交易规则的提议，将规则适用于从欧洲经济区飞往区外、且目的地位于法兰克福机场5,000公里范围内的国家的航班。AACO认为，该提议侵犯主权，并警告称可能出现重叠的环境义务，包括强制性体系之间不承认减排量的情况。这是关于未来监管的另一场争议，并非已确定为预计2026年亏损的原因。⁠5

此外还需注意货币换算问题。AACO自己的公告确认了以美元计的预测。Euronews将其换算为€3.82 billion，但换算日期和方法尚未确定。欧元金额不应被视为另一项相互竞争的预测，也不应视为AACO独立核实过的估算。⁠5⁠3

最终结果仍取决于2026年剩余时间里冲突、燃油成本和运营中断的变化。当前前景已经明确呈现出多重因素的叠加：需求走弱、客运运力利用率降低、货运活动收缩，以及燃油成本占比上升。预计全球航空公司仍将盈利，而AACO成员整体面临的将是严峻得多的一年。⁠5⁠3

播出原貌
  1. Arab airlines face a four-point-three-billion-dollar combined loss forecast. Conflict is disrupting flights through hubs that connect passengers and freight far beyond the region. Their airline association expects passenger demand to fall faster than capacity. How much will those pressures change the final losses, and which carriers will bear them?
  2. The Arab Air Carriers' Organization expects its members to lose about 4.3 billion US dollars in calendar year 2026. The association represents 39 airlines across the Middle East and North Africa, including Qatar Airways, Emirates, Etihad Airways and Gulf Air.
  3. More than 200 executives and industry stakeholders gathered in Doha for the Qatar Airways-hosted meeting. Delegates received the annual outlook electronically at the association's fifty-ninth annual general meeting, whose working sessions took place November third, after the November second opening.
  4. The forecast reverses a strong year for these airlines. In 2025, members earned a 10.8 percent net margin. Passenger traffic grew 7.6 percent, while the seats offered, adjusted for distance flown, increased 5.8 percent. Cargo traffic grew four percent.
  5. Members earned about 11 billion US dollars in 2025. AACO now projects a 4.3 billion dollar loss for 2026. That's a 15.3 billion dollar deterioration in their combined bottom line, with the current year's final result still ahead.
  6. AACO secretary general Abdul Wahab Teffaha said the strong momentum at the start of 2026 didn't continue. The regional crisis began in late 2023, and its widening impact this year has disrupted operations and put renewed pressure on the transport network.
  7. Airlines measure passenger demand by multiplying paying passengers by the distance they travel. Capacity measures available seats multiplied by distance. Those measures capture how much flying customers buy and how much airlines offer. This year, AACO expects the gap between them to widen.
  8. Passenger demand is forecast to fall 10.3 percent, against a 4.7 percent reduction in capacity. Cargo traffic is expected to shrink 5.2 percent. That cargo measure combines freight weight and distance, capturing the transport work these airlines perform for businesses.
  9. AACO puts passenger load factor, the share of seat capacity actually used, at 77 percent this year, against 81.8 percent in 2025. It also forecasts a minus 2.7 percent operating margin. That measure of earnings from running the business stood at positive 11.8 percent in 2025 and 11.3 percent in 2024.
  10. Fuel's share of member operating costs rises from 27.9 percent in 2025 to a forecast 37.3 percent this year. That's 9.4 percentage points more of the cost bill. Worldwide, the comparable shares are 25.4 and 31.4 percent.
  11. Higher energy costs meet weaker demand, squeezing the money left from each flight. The consequences extend to businesses using the region's hubs to move goods, and to travellers connecting between continents. Airlines also face delivery delays that make renewing their fleets harder and more expensive.
  12. Worldwide airlines are still projected to earn about 23 billion US dollars in net profit this year. That would be their lowest profit in 12 years when the COVID period and its aftermath are excluded. AACO members face a much sharper collective reversal.
  13. Worldwide passenger-demand growth is expected to slow from 5.3 percent to 2.1 percent. Global cargo growth falls from 3.3 percent to no more than 0.7 percent. Both forecasts still show expansion, while AACO expects its members' traffic to contract.
  14. Global passenger capacity is forecast to grow 1.6 percent. With demand growing faster, worldwide load factor is projected to rise from 83.5 to 83.9 percent. The global operating margin stood at 7.2 percent in 2025. The regional and worldwide forecasts describe very different operating conditions.
  15. Manufacturers' global aircraft order backlog stood at 17,250 aircraft in 2025. AACO expects it to exceed 18,000 by the end of 2026. Delayed aircraft, engines and spare parts constrain fleet renewal and increase airlines' operating costs.
  16. Members had 1,587 aircraft in service at the end of July 2025. They received 121 aircraft during that year, and their combined order backlog reached 1,734. AACO's executive committee has directed a working group to study shared spare-parts inventories, with possible cooperation on procurement.
  17. Qatar Airways group chief executive Hamad Al-Khater, who chaired the meeting, said Middle East aviation supports as many as four million jobs. He put its contribution to the regional economy at about 290 billion US dollars.
  18. The sector's longer-term economic contribution is projected to reach 730 billion dollars by 2043. Arab airports handled more than 500 million passengers in 2025, an increase of 8.1 percent. That airport total reaches beyond AACO members' own traffic, showing the wider exposure of tourism, trade and workers to interrupted connections.
  19. AACO also opposed a proposed expansion of Europe's carbon-trading rules from 2029. It would cover flights departing the European Economic Area for countries outside it within 5,000 kilometres of Frankfurt Airport. The airlines say the expansion would infringe on national sovereignty.
  20. Teffaha warned of overlapping charges under European rules and CORSIA, the international aviation carbon-offsetting system. AACO wants emissions reductions recognised across those systems, including reductions linked to mandated sustainable fuel. Its resolution calls for globally coordinated measures that avoid charging airlines twice for the same emissions.
  21. Qatar Airways says it's increasing winter flights to major European destinations, including London Heathrow and Frankfurt. It also plans more flights across Asia, Africa and Australia. Emirates says it has restored about 91 percent of capacity and nearly 98 percent of its network.
  22. Emirates is also continuing fleet retrofits backed by seven billion dollars of investment. In October, it launched a daily Helsinki service, adding to its Nordic connections. Those expansion plans sit alongside a combined forecast that AACO expects to vary considerably with hub location and exposure to conflict-affected markets.
  23. The final 2026 outcome will depend on how conflict, fuel costs and operational disruption develop through the rest of the year. AACO hasn't allocated the projected 4.3 billion dollar loss carrier by carrier.

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