灾害 · 台风「昌皮」持续报道 · 第 1 篇，共 2 篇

风速140 mph的「昌皮」最接近关岛后掠过。紧急状况尚未结束。

四级台风「昌皮」的北侧眼墙已将极端风力带到关岛南部。风暴最接近关岛的时刻已过，但仍要求居民继续留在避难处。

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译自英文原文。

持续报道第 3 天

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完整报道
  1. 第 1 次更新风速140 mph的「昌皮」最接近关岛后掠过。紧急状况尚未结束。当前位置
  2. 第 2 次更新昌皮警报解除，但关岛仍有道路洪水风险和海上危险较新

140 mph：这是台风「昌皮」远离与关岛最近接近点时的最大持续风速——并非每户住宅的实测风速，而是四级风暴的强度；其北侧眼墙已在关岛南部带来极端风力。风暴中心已非常接近关岛南端。紧急状况并未随它远去。80 3

截至查莫罗标准时间2026年10月18日星期日凌晨5:26，关岛、罗塔岛及其邻近海域仍处于台风警报之下。关岛南部的极端风警报和关岛的山洪警报所列结束时间均为凌晨5:30。这个临近的时间点并不意味着警报解除，也不能说明之后是否会发布替代警报。80 3 75

眼下的指示是留在坚固的避难所内，待在远离窗户的加固内室。关岛方面的指引是，待当局宣布进入戒备状态4级后方可离开钢筋混凝土建筑——即使天气状况暂时看起来平静也应如此。截至此时可查到的官方通报中，没有证据表明当局已发布这一宣布。此前要求完成准备或撤离的建议，现已转为要求在危险状况期间继续避难。3 124 154

最新经核实的风暴通报——美国国家气象局第13A号中间通报——于凌晨5:14发布。通报称，「昌皮」最近接近关岛的时间约为凌晨4:26，地点「非常接近关岛南端」。这是分析得出的最近接近时间和位置，并非确认风暴中心登陆。它也不能证明早前有关风暴将达到超强台风强度的预报已经实现：最新评估仍为四级，持续风速为140 mph。80

移动中的风暴中心过后留下什么

风暴中心与眼墙的区别，是理解关岛目前状况的关键。凌晨3:26，安德森空军基地多普勒雷达显示，与「昌皮」北侧眼墙相关的极端风力正从塔洛福福向南登陆。关岛南部的警报预报，最南部地区将遭遇115–135 mph的破坏性风力。这些是当地风力预报，并非各村经核实的实测数据；它们与风暴的最大持续强度是不同的指标。3

截至最新一次观测（有效时间为早上5时），风暴中心位于关岛西南偏南约35英里处，正以14 mph的速度向西移动。预报员预计，风暴将在星期一之前略微转向西北偏西，前进速度基本不变，并预报「昌皮」将维持强度至星期日夜间。因此，风暴远离并不意味着它会迅速减弱。80

台风级风力从风暴中心向外最远可达25英里，热带风暴级风力最远可达125英里。这些距离描述的是环流范围，并不代表这些区域内的状况处处相同。路径线标示风暴中心的移动轨迹，并非危险天气的边界。80

从逼近到最近掠过

  1. 查莫罗标准时间10月16日星期五晚上8时

    「昌皮」当时为热带风暴，风速为60 mph，位于关岛东南偏东约510英里处。

    6
  2. 查莫罗标准时间10月18日星期日凌晨3:26

    雷达显示，北侧眼墙的极端风力正从塔洛福福向南登陆。

    3
  3. 查莫罗标准时间10月18日星期日凌晨约4:26

    最新通报称，风暴最接近关岛南端时非常接近关岛。

    80
  4. 查莫罗标准时间10月18日星期日凌晨5:14

    第13A号通报维持「昌皮」风速为140 mph，并称最近接近时刻已过。

    80

最后一次更新实质性改变了对风暴经过情况的描述。凌晨4:40发布的警报更新仍称风暴将从关岛以南经过，并提到12小时内可能达到超强台风强度。较新的通报取代了先前对未来时间和位置的预测，但并未取消持续的风力威胁。1 80

这些岛屿的警戒级别也各不相同。提尼安岛、塞班岛及其邻近海域仍处于热带风暴警报之下，两岛的台风观察也仍在持续。预计当地将出现热带风暴状况；仍有可能出现台风状况。两岛的警报与关岛和罗塔岛不同，但并不意味着警报解除。80

关岛的戒备状态已从准备阶段升级。总督卢尔德斯·A·莱昂·格雷罗下令关岛自10月17日星期六下午1时起进入戒备状态1级，取代星期五的状态2级。罗塔岛于星期六下午5时进入台风戒备状态1级。103 16 124

危险有几种不同的时间进程

洪水是同时发生的紧急危险，并非只是风势减弱后几小时才需要担心的问题。凌晨3:23，国家气象局将关岛的山洪警报延长至凌晨5:30，并报告称，随着「昌皮」内眼墙逼近关岛南部，雷达显示有雷暴带来强降雨。这里没有经独立核实的实测累积降雨量。较早发布的降雨预报不能当作已经降下的雨量。75

另一项洪水观察覆盖关岛、罗塔岛、提尼安岛和塞班岛，持续至星期日下午，系统编码的结束时间为下午4时。该观察提醒，过量降雨和地表径流可能导致河流、溪流及排水不良地区发生洪水。它可以与关岛更紧急的警报同时生效；警报存在并不能证明范围更广的观察已取消。应避开被水淹没的道路。78 124

海上方面，预报称眼墙附近海况显著，海浪最高可达35英尺——海事警报称这种状况危险，甚至可能致命，并可能损坏、倾覆或使船只沉没。这是预报的海况指标，并非实测浪高，也不表示每一道浪都会达到35英尺。船只已被要求留在安全港内并做好固定。4

海事警报还指出，破坏性风力可能至少持续到星期日夜间，危险海况则可能延续至10月19日星期一。风暴中心最近接近的时间、某个地点遭遇最强状况的时间，以及危险海况结束的时间，不一定一致。因此，即使地图上显示风暴开始远离，海岸线仍然危险。4

经审阅的实时官方通报并未确认伤亡人数或损失总额。这并不意味着没有造成伤害。当地最大风速、累积降雨量、实际浪高以及各社区的受损情况仍有待评估。80 124

下一次完整通报明确安排在查莫罗标准时间星期日早上8时发布，之后将在上午11时发布中间通报。在当局宣布可以离开避难所之前，实际应对措施仍不变：继续做好防护。「昌皮」最接近关岛的时刻已过；风力、洪水和海上危险对岛上居民而言仍未过去。80 154

播出原貌 15 行
  1. Champi’s northern eyewall has driven extreme winds ashore in southern Guam. The Category Four typhoon carries maximum sustained winds of 140 miles an hour. People face destructive winds and flash flooding even after the center’s closest approach. How long must residents stay sheltered as the storm moves away?
  2. Champi’s center was about 35 miles south-southwest of Guam at five this morning, moving west at 14 miles an hour. It was about 90 miles south-southwest of Rota, 155 miles south-southwest of Tinian and 165 miles south-southwest of Saipan.
  3. Those are the conditions for Sunday, October eighteenth, with warning status current through five twenty-six this morning, Chamorro Standard Time. The latest bulletin came twelve minutes earlier. Forecasters expect a slight turn toward the west-northwest through Monday, with little change in forward speed. They expect Champi to maintain its current strength through Sunday night.
  4. Champi’s maximum sustained winds remain at 140 miles an hour. Typhoon-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds up to 125 miles. Local conditions vary across that broad circulation.
  5. Champi has strengthened substantially since Friday evening. At eight that night, it was a tropical storm with 60-mile-an-hour winds, about 510 miles east-southeast of Guam. Even the warning updates issued at four forty this morning still described a future passage south of Guam. The newer analysis places that closest approach in the past.
  6. Champi passed very near Guam’s southern point around four twenty-six this morning. Earlier forecasts allowed for super-typhoon strength during the passage. The latest assessment keeps Champi at Category Four. The continuing danger reaches well beyond the center.
  7. The northern eyewall was already reaching shore before that closest approach. At three twenty-six, radar indicated extreme winds moving onshore from Talofofo southward, heading west at 15 miles an hour. The southern Guam warning forecasts local destructive winds of 115 to 135 miles an hour. Those are forecast winds for the far south; conditions at individual communities will vary.
  8. Governor Lourdes Leon Guerrero placed Guam in Condition of Readiness One at one Saturday afternoon, replacing Friday’s Condition Two. Rota entered Typhoon Condition of Readiness One at five Saturday afternoon. Guam’s instruction is to remain inside a sturdy, concrete-reinforced structure.
  9. Stay in a reinforced interior room away from windows, and remain sheltered through dangerous conditions. Guam’s guidance is to stay inside until Condition of Readiness Four is announced. A temporary calm gives residents no reason to go outside. Earlier instructions to finish preparations or evacuate have given way to immediate shelter instructions, especially for central and southern Guam.
  10. Guam and Rota, including their adjacent waters, remain under Typhoon Warnings. Tinian and Saipan and their adjacent waters have Tropical Storm Warnings, while Typhoon Watches continue for both islands. Tropical-storm conditions are expected there, and typhoon conditions remain possible.
  11. Guam also faces a Flash Flood Warning, alongside southern Guam’s Extreme Wind Warning. Both list an end time of five thirty this morning; that time alone gives no assurance of safety. Radar showed thunderstorms producing heavy rain as the inner eyewall approached. A wider Flood Watch covers all four islands through four this afternoon. Runoff can flood rivers, creeks and poorly drained areas.
  12. Significant seas near the eyewall are forecast to reach up to 35 feet. That sea-state forecast describes conditions capable of damaging, capsizing or sinking vessels. Individual waves vary. Vessels have been instructed to remain secured in safe harbor.
  13. The marine warning defines typhoon conditions as winds of at least 64 knots, about 74 miles an hour. Champi’s peak winds are much stronger. Damaging winds could continue through at least Sunday night, and dangerous seas into Monday. Flooded roads and the shoreline remain places to avoid while those hazards continue after the center’s passage.
  14. The next full storm advisory is scheduled for eight this morning, followed by an intermediate advisory at eleven. Officials haven't released a confirmed casualty figure or damage total. Assessments still have to determine what individual communities experienced.
  15. Residents must remain protected until authorities announce it’s safe to leave shelter. Champi’s closest approach has happened, but the moving center doesn't end the wind, flood or marine emergency. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness One, with instructions to stay inside until Condition Four is announced.

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