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灾害 · 昌皮灾后影响持续报道 · 第 2 篇，共 2 篇

昌皮警报解除，但关岛仍有道路洪水风险和海上危险

关岛北部新发布的洪水提示，以及持续的海浪和航行危险，都比昌皮的气旋警报持续得更久；学校和公用事业部门仍在评估灾后情况。

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持续报道第 5 天

2 篇报道76 家媒体275 个来源

完整报道
  1. 第 1 次更新风速140 mph的「昌皮」最接近关岛后掠过。紧急状况尚未结束。
  2. 第 2 次更新昌皮警报解除，但关岛仍有道路洪水风险和海上危险当前位置

自上次报道以来的变化

31 小时后

当时

风速140 mph的「昌皮」最接近关岛后掠过。紧急状况尚未结束。

我们报道的内容

  • 雷达显示，北侧眼墙的极端风力正从塔洛福福向南登陆。
  • 最新通报称，风暴最接近关岛南端时非常接近关岛。

现在

关岛北部新发布的洪水提示，以及持续的海浪和航行危险，都比昌皮的气旋警报持续得更久；学校和公用事业部门仍在评估灾后情况。

关岛北部的司机仍需在被淹道路前掉头，马里亚纳群岛的4座岛屿周边，游泳者仍面临危险海浪——尽管昌皮的气旋警报已经解除。10月19日星期一发布的一项新洪水提示称，暴雨可能危及关岛北部社区；就在数小时前，覆盖更广区域的洪水监视已取消。风暴离去带来了缓解，但并非处处都已安全。20 3

截至这篇报道的截稿时间——星期一查莫罗标准时间下午12:58——当地洪水提示仍在其注明的有效时段内，同时还有海浪、离岸流和小型船只警报。美国国家气象局于10月18日星期日下午5:51取消了针对关岛和罗塔岛的最后一批台风警报，并明确结束了整个马里亚纳群岛及周边海域的热带气旋监视和警报。这些取消并未消除其他独立的当地危险。20 260

关键事实

  1. 下午1:15关岛北部洪水提示预定结束时间，星期一 20
  2. 下午4时海浪和离岸流警报预定结束时间，星期一 20
  3. 下午5时小型船只警告预定结束时间，星期一 20

以上三个时间均为查莫罗标准时间。它们是预警产品预定的结束时间，并不保证道路、礁区或某段沿岸海域会在那一刻变得安全。

当地洪水威胁再现

中午12:13发布的关岛北部提示称，根据雷达估算，提示覆盖区域此前已降雨1.5至3 inches，预计还将降雨0.5至1.5 inches。这些是提示覆盖区域的降雨量，并非全岛雨量计的总量，也不是昌皮整个风暴过程的降雨总量。新增降雨仍属于预报。20

提示列出的地点包括德德多、塔穆宁、伊戈、曼吉劳、巴里加达、安德森空军基地和蒙蒙-托托-马伊特。城市地区和小溪可能发生洪水；低洼地带及排水不畅区域预计会出现轻度洪水。实际指示毫不含糊：不要试图驾车穿过被淹道路。20

此前区域情况确实有所改善。上午6:55，美国国家气象局预报员表示，雷达和卫星图像显示昌皮外围雨带正在撤离，因此取消了覆盖范围更广的洪水监视。之后发布的关岛北部提示并不与这一判断矛盾：它针对的是稍后出现、范围更局部的威胁。一个区域的降雨可能减弱，但其中某一地仍可能雨势强劲，足以造成问题。3 20

海况也需另行解除警报

在迎风的裸露礁区，星期一的预报称碎浪高度为9至11英尺，低于前一晚的10至14英尺。巨浪警报覆盖关岛和罗塔岛朝南及朝西的礁区，以及提尼安岛和塞班岛朝南的礁区。提尼安岛和塞班岛的南部和东部礁区，以及关岛和罗塔岛的南部和西部礁区，也面临较高的离岸流风险。这些是海浪状况预报，并非对单个海浪的实测值。20 264

离岸流甚至能把强壮的游泳者卷向外海，局部海滩侵蚀也仍有可能发生。美国国家气象局建议，若有人被卷入离岸流，应放松身体并漂浮，而非与水流对抗；如果能够脱身，就平行海岸线游泳；如果无法脱身，则呼救或挥手求助。关岛官方发布恢复正常戒备状态的通知时，仍保留了这项指示：20 82

切勿下水。

关岛国土安全部 82

较高级别警报取消后，航行限制仍然有效。危险海况警报已结束，但覆盖4座岛屿全部沿岸海域的小型船只警告仍在持续。关岛和罗塔岛预计海浪高10至12英尺，东南风风速为15至20节；提尼安岛和塞班岛预计海浪高9至11英尺，风速为10至20节。两个区域都可能频繁出现最高达30节的阵风。建议缺乏经验的船员，尤其是驾驶较小船只的人，在这种条件下避免出海。20

与我们此前报道相比有哪些变化

在我们10月17日播出的节目中（协调世界时20:45播出——关岛时间为10月18日凌晨），我们报道昌皮风速为140 mph，关岛和罗塔岛仍处于台风警报之下。当时的报道尚未确认风暴达到超强台风强度。美国国家气象局后续公告确认，风暴强度上调至150 mph，随后在星期日取消了剩余的气旋警报。这些是风暴发展过程中先后出现的阶段，并非对同一时刻的相互矛盾描述。1 260

后续公告还指出，风眼于星期日凌晨4:26左右从关岛最南端以南约10 miles处掠过。这表明风暴中心极近地经过岛外海域，而非登陆。中午的报道说风眼直径约为5 miles。昌皮风暴中的最大持续风速，并不意味着每个村庄或机场都经历了同样的风速。1 8

星期日早晨，关岛国际机场偶尔出现最高达80 mph的阵风。到下午发布警报时，机场观测显示持续风速为25至30 mph，频繁出现最高达60 mph的阵风。罗塔岛当日上午经历了经核实的热带风暴条件；塞班岛后来报告出现最高达35 mph的阵风。提尼安岛和塞班岛的热带风暴警报及台风监视于中午结束，而关岛和罗塔岛的警报持续至傍晚。各岛经历的情况并不相同，恢复进程也没有遵循同一个时间表。1 4 5 7

在近海，美国国家气象局报告称，星期日警报期间，关岛西部海域出现了具有破坏性的台风级风力。预报显示，关岛附近的有效波高可能达到24英尺，罗塔岛附近可能达到20英尺。这些是近海可能出现的海浪高度，并非实测的海滩碎浪高度，也不是经核实的风暴最大值。之后在浮标上观测到的9至12英尺综合海况数据来自马里亚纳群岛最北部——那是不同地点的数据，不能据此确定关岛附近海浪有多高。6 3

截至星期一上午7时的位置报告，昌皮位于关岛以西约345 miles处，以14 mph的速度向西北偏西移动，最大持续风速为140 mph。预报称，其总体路径和速度将持续至星期二。星期一晚些时候风力再次达到超强台风级别仍只是预报，并非已确认的结果。下一次公开通报定于当地时间下午2时发布。261

正在恢复，尚未完全复原

关岛总督卢尔德斯·莱昂·格雷罗于星期日下午6时将关岛恢复至第4级戒备状态，结束了此前的避难安排。《太平洋每日新闻》报道称，初步驾车巡查未发现明显海水倒灌、建筑物倒塌、道路被淹或无法通行，也未发现巡查沿线发生泥石流。这是令人宽慰的早期侦察结果，并非已经完成的全岛损毁清查。263

《太平洋每日新闻》的同期报道还提到关岛南部有树木倒塌和屋顶受损。这些局部报告没有附上量化损失数据，也未获得独立的官方确认。无论这些报告还是早期评估，都无法确定全部损失；目前也没有经核实的伤亡人数或全面损失总额。缺少数据不应被理解为没有损害。267

供水运行情况显示，风暴造成了具体影响。截至星期日上午8时，关岛98口正在运行的生产井中，有72口依靠备用发电机供电。所有污水泵站和污水处理厂均在线运行，当时尚未报告污水溢流。帕戈湾、马莱索和拉泰高地的部分地区报告水压偏低或无水压。这些是有明确时间点的运行状况，并不能确认星期一各户供水情况。265

乌古姆河水因洪水变得浑浊，乌古姆地表水处理厂因此被关闭。其水库未受影响，继续向配水系统供水。电力和供水工作人员正在协调发电机运行；电力波动、加油和设备维护可能还需要作出调整。265

公立学校学生星期一停课，期间行政人员和教职员工评估校舍设施。学校避难所继续运行并为滞留人员提供支持；小学家长教师会议已延期，恢复上课后将另行确定日期。根据关岛官方的灾后恢复通知，政府部门星期一恢复运作；与此同时，官员协助驾车者，并继续警告可能发生洪水和危及生命的海上险情。263 82

接下来的工作是确认实际恢复情况、损失和经测量的风暴最大值，而不仅仅是在地图上标记昌皮离得更远了。目前，最重要的实际区别在于：恢复正常戒备状态意味着恢复工作可以推进，但并不意味着被淹道路可以通行，也不意味着危险海域已安全。

播出原貌 29 行
  1. Heavy rain threatens northern Guam with flooding after Champi’s cyclone warnings ended. Dangerous surf and rough seas still threaten swimmers and small boats across four islands.
  2. On October 17, we reported that Guam and Rota remained under typhoon warnings, with Champi’s winds at 140 miles an hour. Those warnings have since ended. Which dangers remain as Guam returns to normal readiness?
  3. The last cyclone warnings ended Sunday evening at five fifty-one, covering Guam, Rota and the surrounding waters. Across the Marianas, no tropical-cyclone watches or warnings remain. Northern Guam’s flood advisory and the islands’ coastal advisories are still in effect.
  4. Champi was about 345 miles west of Guam in Monday morning’s latest position. Its maximum sustained winds were 140 miles an hour, down from Sunday’s 150. It was moving west-northwest at 14 miles an hour into the Philippine Sea.
  5. Typhoon-force winds extended up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds up to 175 miles. The forecast keeps Champi on that general course through Tuesday. It could regain super-typhoon strength later Monday, but that strengthening is still a forecast.
  6. Northern Guam had already received an estimated one and a half to three inches of rain when the new advisory began. Another half-inch to one and a half inches is forecast there. These amounts cover the local advisory area.
  7. The flooding threat includes Dededo, Tamuning and Yigo, along with Mangilao, Barrigada, Andersen Air Force Base and Mongmong-Toto-Maite. Urban areas and small streams could flood, especially where drainage is poor. Drivers encountering flooded roads should turn around rather than attempt a crossing.
  8. The broader regional flood watch had already been cancelled Monday morning as Champi’s outer rainbands withdrew. The new northern Guam advisory followed around midday. Rain was easing across the region, but enough fell locally to create another flooding threat. The advisory runs until one fifteen this afternoon, Chamorro Standard Time.
  9. Breaking waves of nine to eleven feet are forecast along exposed reefs. High surf covers south and west reefs of Guam and Rota, and south reefs of Tinian and Saipan. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions can continue as Champi moves farther away.
  10. The forecast surf has eased from the previous evening’s ten to fourteen feet. But rip currents remain life-threatening, including along south and east reefs of Tinian and Saipan. They can sweep even strong swimmers offshore. Guam’s continuing instruction is explicit: stay out of the water.
  11. If a rip current catches you, float rather than fight it. Swim parallel to the shoreline if you can escape, and call or wave for help if you can’t. Localized beach erosion is also possible while the surf remains elevated.
  12. Guam and Rota waters have forecast seas of ten to twelve feet, with southeast winds of fifteen to twenty knots. Tinian and Saipan face nine-to-eleven-foot seas and winds of ten to twenty knots. Both areas could have frequent gusts to thirty knots.
  13. The hazardous-seas warning has been cancelled, while the small-craft advisory continues. Swell and wind-driven waves still make these waters dangerous for smaller vessels. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating small boats, should avoid boating in these conditions.
  14. Champi’s eye passed about ten miles south of Guam’s southern tip early Sunday morning. The midday account put the eye at around five miles wide. The strongest winds were concentrated offshore, while damaging gusts continued across parts of the islands.
  15. The full morning advisory arrived ahead of its scheduled release and was later corrected. It classified Champi as a super typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles an hour. That was a later intensification from the 140-mile-an-hour stage in our earlier broadcast.
  16. Guam International Airport had occasional gusts up to eighty miles an hour Sunday morning. By the afternoon update, sustained winds were twenty-five to thirty miles an hour, with gusts up to sixty. Those readings came at different stages of the storm.
  17. Rota experienced tropical-storm conditions that morning, while Saipan later had gusts up to thirty-five miles an hour. Tinian and Saipan’s tropical-storm warnings and typhoon watches were cancelled at midday. Guam and Rota’s typhoon warnings lasted into the evening, as damaging gusts took longer to subside.
  18. Earlier marine warnings forecast seas potentially reaching twenty-four feet near Guam and twenty feet near Rota. Later buoys measured combined seas of nine to twelve feet near the far northern Marianas. Those observations describe a different location, far from Guam’s coastal waters.
  19. Destructive typhoon-force winds were occurring in western Guam waters during Sunday’s warning period. Boats were told to remain in safe harbor because the seas could capsize or sink vessels. The forecast offshore sea heights didn’t measure breaking waves on Guam’s beaches.
  20. Governor Lourdes Leon Guerrero returned Guam to Condition of Readiness Four at six Sunday evening. That ended the earlier shelter posture. An initial drive-through assessment found no significant ocean inundation or collapsed buildings along the route, and no impassable roads or mudslides.
  21. That first reconnaissance covered only an early view of the damage. Southern Guam reportedly had fallen trees and damaged roofs. The full toll on people and property still isn’t clear. Remaining precautions include watching for road closures, avoiding downed power lines and checking for any boil-water notices.
  22. Seventy-two of Guam’s ninety-eight operating water wells depended on standby generators in Sunday morning’s utility update. All sewer pump stations and wastewater treatment plants were online, and no sewer overflows had been reported at that point.
  23. Parts of Pago Bay, Malesso’ and Latte Heights had reported low or absent water pressure. Power loss and fluctuations could force water-system adjustments, as could generator refueling and servicing. Those were Sunday morning’s operating conditions; they don’t tell households whether their service has since been restored.
  24. Flooding made the Ugum River too cloudy for normal treatment, and the Ugum Surface Water Treatment Plant was secured. Its reservoir remained unaffected and continued supplying the distribution system. Power and water crews were coordinating generator operations, with field response dependent on safe weather.
  25. Sunday’s power disruption also interrupted weather observations. The radar at Andersen was reported out of service by six that morning and returned at seven fourteen. Its temporary outage left a gap in radar coverage during the storm’s departure.
  26. Guam’s public-school students have no classes Monday while administrators and staff assess facilities. School shelters continue operating and supporting their occupants. Elementary parent-teacher conferences have also been postponed, with replacement dates to come after schools reopen.
  27. Government operations reopened Monday, and officials were assisting motorists while continuing to warn about flooding and life-threatening marine conditions. Normal readiness allows recovery work to proceed, while school checks, household water problems and local weather hazards still affect daily life.
  28. The flood advisory is scheduled to end at one fifteen, followed by the next cyclone advisory at two. Surf and rip-current alerts run until four, and the small-craft advisory until five. All those times are local to the islands.
  29. Champi’s departing core has allowed the cyclone warnings to end. Flooding, surf and boating dangers still require separate precautions. The scheduled end of an advisory doesn’t guarantee that a flooded road, exposed beach or stretch of coastal water becomes safe at that minute.

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