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关口失守:胡塞武装控制也门红海海岸,油价随之上涨

穆哈于9月10日失守,海峡岛屿一天后相继失守,胡塞武装由此控制曼德海峡也门一侧,并推动油价突破$100。

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原语言视频

译自英文原文。

谁有权决定哪些船只可以通过红海——又有谁(如果有的话)会夺回这项权力?也门西海岸发生的两天事态迫使人们面对这个问题:胡塞武装抹去了红海沿岸政府控制的最后一个港口,随后进驻红海南大门内的岛屿。⁠9⁠45

2026年9月10日,星期四,胡塞武装在一天的交火后进入穆哈,迫使亲政府部队撤退。⁠9⁠6穆哈(Mokha,这座城镇是摩卡咖啡名称的由来)并非又一个普通的地区首府。它是国际社会承认的也门政府在红海沿岸最后一个深水港,也是国家抵抗力量的行动总部。这支旅由总统领导委员会副主席塔里克·萨利赫指挥,自2017年以来一直驻扎在那里。⁠10⁠11⁠6

12%经曼德海峡运输的全球石油和货物 12
$105+穆哈失守后的布伦特原油价格 23
2769月3日至7日战斗死亡人数,ACLED统计 51

攻势并未止步于码头。到9月11日星期五,胡塞武装部队已向南推进至祖巴卜——面向海峡的最后一个重要沿海城镇——随后乘船渡至佩里姆岛(Mayyun)。这座火山岛楔形地处曼德海峡中央,将水道分成两条航道,并设有一条跑道。火箭弹袭击和乘船突击后,胡塞武装又推进至大哈尼什岛、小哈尼什岛和祖卡尔岛。⁠45⁠51⁠42政府军方消息人士称,曼德海峡地区已被完全接管,此前由政府控制的西海岸所有地区均已失守。⁠45⁠48实际上,政府控制的红海沿岸地带已不复存在;剩余政府控制区位于内陆或更南面的亚丁方向。⁠51⁠45

穆哈的重要性在于它的地理位置,而不只是这座城镇本身。穆哈位于塔伊兹省,距海峡约80公里;在19世纪亚丁和荷台达取而代之之前,这里曾是世界主要咖啡港。⁠2⁠10如今,它是通往这一咽喉要道的前沿地带;也门与吉布提之间最窄处仅约30公里,是红海南大门,也是苏伊士航线的入口。⁠12⁠15全球约12%的石油和货物经此运输——2023年每天约有870万桶原油和石油产品通过,约占全球海运贸易的十分之一。⁠12⁠18控制穆哈、佩里姆岛和哈尼什群岛,意味着胡塞武装直接占据海峡入口,并扩大其拦截、搜查或袭击船只的范围。⁠12⁠19

从宣布封锁到控制海岸

  1. 2026年2月28日

    美国和以色列发起“史诗怒火行动”,扩大战争规模。

    21
  2. 2026年3月

    霍尔木兹海峡关闭,油价飙升。

    21
  3. 2026年7月20日

    胡塞领导人宣布封锁曼德海峡。

    21
  4. 2026年9月8日

    胡塞武装向沙特南部目标发动导弹和无人机袭击。

    17
  5. 2026年9月10日

    一天交火后,穆哈失守。

    9
  6. 2026年9月11日

    祖巴卜、佩里姆岛、哈尼什群岛和祖卡尔岛被夺取。

    45

市场比外交官更早感受到冲击

在穆哈易手之前,布伦特原油已于9月9日突破每桶$100;港口失守后,价格飙升至$105以上。部分报道显示,价格一度触及约$108-109,随后在周末成交清淡时回落至约$100-105。⁠22⁠23⁠28WTI自5月21日以来首次突破$100;随着油轮遇袭事件增多,油价单日上涨6%。⁠23⁠24布伦特原油仍低于4月创下的年内高点$126,但由于库存偏低、中东出口减少以及对局势进一步恶化的担忧,自8月初以来已上涨约四分之一。⁠26⁠27如今,驶往亚洲的船只可能需要绕行好望角,航程增加约一个月;炼油商正在寻找替代供应,货运成本也在上升。⁠27⁠12

这次夺取控制权发生在与利雅得不断扩大的交锋之中。9月8日,胡塞武装向沙特南部的能源和民用设施发动导弹和无人机袭击,包括与阿美石油公司有关的设施,以及艾卜哈、海米斯穆谢特、吉赞和奈季兰周边设施;9月9日至10日又发动后续袭击,造成73人受伤,其中包括妇女和儿童。沙特当局称,火灾扰乱了能源运营。⁠17⁠54沙特及联军飞机随后加强了对胡塞武装控制区的空袭,包括穆哈港口失守后的机场,以及塔伊兹、荷台达、马里卜和焦夫省多地。⁠54⁠48

伤亡统计仍是初步估算,但已相当惨重。ACLED记录显示,9月3日至7日,胡塞武装与亲政府部队交战至少造成276人死亡;此前的统计称,三天内近180名战斗人员丧生,战斗最初几天已有120多人死亡。⁠51⁠33一份关于2026年攻势的汇总列出双方分别有278人和216人死亡,另有29名平民死亡、数万人流离失所;这些数字应视为初步估算。⁠51胡塞武装军事发言人叶海亚·萨雷声称,此次攻势打击了7个师和38个旅,造成数百人死亡、被俘或受伤。⁠51穆哈居民描述了家人逃离时有人在街头受伤的情形。⁠9

战场之后,政治角力随之而来。萨利赫将失守称为一次战术撤退,目的是重整队伍,并在城南建立另一个指挥中心;他承认国家抵抗力量、“巨人旅”、“国盾”部队和塔伊兹部队均有人员伤亡和重大损失,并指责伊朗策划并提供支持。⁠52⁠53一段流传的音频中,有人用他的声音下令撤退;他的媒体团队称该音频是人工智能克隆伪造,相关说法仍有争议。⁠52诺贝尔奖得主塔瓦库勒·卡尔曼公开要求委员会主席拉沙德·阿里米解除萨利赫的职务,并就穆哈不战而失守一事对他展开调查;这是政治指控,并非官方结论。⁠48阿里米本人表示,穆哈和曼德海峡周边事态并非纯粹的也门事务,而是与全球贸易相关的地区和国际问题。⁠48也门和沙特官员称此次攻势由伊朗指挥,伊朗武器助力胡塞武装夺取控制权;德黑兰否认控制胡塞武装;巴基斯坦则依据其与利雅得的防务协定,呼吁德黑兰约束该组织。⁠35⁠53

已知

  • 胡塞武装在一天交火后于9月10日夺取穆哈。 9
  • 截至9月11日,祖巴卜、佩里姆岛以及哈尼什群岛和祖卡尔岛均已失守。 45
  • 穆哈失守后,布伦特原油价格飙升至$105以上;WTI突破$100。 23

未知

  • 尚无任何一方承诺夺回海峡也门一侧的控制权。
  • 西海岸攻势造成的最终死亡人数和流离失所人数仍未得到核实。

后续

  • 胡塞武装对佩里姆岛和哈尼什群岛的控制,是否会演变为实际封锁,还是仅构成迫在眉睫的威胁。
  • 经好望角绕行的石油运输路线是否会成为秋季运往亚洲货物的常态。

来源40

在此处引用的来源中,The National最先发布,比本报道播出早2天。 随后还有1家媒体发布。

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来自 40 家媒体的 54 个来源· 引用最多的优先

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  1. Houthi fighters have taken the islands inside the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
  2. That gate between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean carries about a tenth of the world's seaborne trade — and oil is already above $100 a barrel.
  3. Whether anyone intends to push them back is the question now hanging over the water.
  4. The advance ran along Yemen's western coast. On Thursday, Houthi fighters entered the port city of Mocha after a day of clashes — the city that gave coffee its name, once the world's principal coffee port, and the internationally recognized government's last deep-water Red Sea harbour. By Friday they had pushed onto Dhubab, the final significant town facing the strait, then Perim Island, the volcanic land in the middle of the waterway that splits it into two shipping channels and carries an airstrip, then the Greater and Lesser Hanish and Zuqar Islands. Government military officials say the takeover of the Bab al-Mandeb area is complete — the coastal strip the government held is effectively gone.
  5. The strait is barely thirty kilometres wide at its narrowest — the southern gate of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal route. Roughly twelve percent of the world's oil and goods pass through it, about eight point seven million barrels of crude and petroleum a day, a tenth of global seaborne trade. Holding Mocha, Perim and the Hanish Islands puts Houthi forces directly on the approaches to that lane, extending the range at which they can stop, search or strike a ship.
  6. Markets have already answered. Brent crossed $100 a barrel on September 9, before Mocha even fell, then spiked above $105 after the port changed hands — some reports touching $108 to $109 before easing back to the low hundreds in thin weekend trade. WTI breached $100 for the first time since May 21, and oil jumped six percent in a single day as tanker attacks multiplied. Brent still sits below the year's high of $126 from April, but it has climbed roughly a quarter since early August.
  7. The disruption is more than a number. Ships bound for Asia now face detours of about a month, routing around the Cape of Good Hope while refiners hunt for alternatives and freight costs climb. The same lane is the one Saudi crude exports depend on — and the cost lands twice: on consumers through fuel and freight, and on Yemeni residents displaced from the towns that changed hands.
  8. The seizure landed inside a widening fight with Riyadh. Houthi missile and drone barrages on energy and civilian sites in southern Saudi Arabia — Aramco-linked facilities around Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran — wounded seventy-three people, including women and children, and fires disrupted energy operations. Saudi and coalition aircraft answered with intensified strikes across Houthi-held Yemen, including on Mocha airport after the port fell.
  9. The fighting has been expensive in lives. ACLED recorded at least 276 deaths in battle between Houthi and government-aligned forces from September 3 to 7; earlier tallies cited nearly 180 fighters killed in three days, and more than 120 dead in the first days of combat. A provisional compilation lists 278 killed on one side and 216 on the other, plus 29 civilians and tens of thousands displaced. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed the offensive struck seven divisions and thirty-eight brigades. Residents of Mocha described people injured in the streets as families fled.
  10. Houthi spokesman Muhammad Abdul Salam insists navigation stays safe and uninterrupted, and says operations will stop when the attacks on Yemen stop. Yemeni military officials warn the takeover threatens freedom of maritime navigation, trade and energy supplies. The two statements describe the same stretch of water.
  11. This is the second theater of a war now in its seventh month. The Strait of Hormuz was shut down in March, after the United States and Israel opened the conflict with Operation Epic Fury on February 28. Houthi leaders declared a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb in July — and the September assault turned that declaration into physical control of the ground. The same confrontation now presses two of the world's most important chokepoints at once.
  12. Tariq Saleh, vice-chair of the presidential council whose forces had held Mocha since 2017, called the loss a tactical withdrawal, ordered his units to regroup and moved his command centre south of the city, acknowledging heavy losses and blaming Iranian planning and support. A circulating audio clip in his voice ordering a withdrawal was denounced by his own media as an AI clone. Nobel laureate Tawakkol Karman publicly asked council head Rashad al-Alimi to dismiss Saleh and investigate him over Mocha falling without a fight — a political accusation, not an official finding. Al-Alimi called the events a regional and international issue tied to global trade. Yemeni and Saudi officials describe the offensive as Iranian-directed, with Iranian arms aiding the capture; Tehran denies controlling the group, and Pakistan, under its defence pact with Riyadh, called on Tehran to restrain it.
  13. The outcome is a shift in who can bleed the world's energy trade, and for how long. The Houthis now control the Yemeni side of the strait — the physical approaches to the Red Sea's southern gate — and no force in the region has yet committed to pushing them back. Whether the advance stops at the shore is the question that now decides the price of oil, and the freight bill on everything that moves east.

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