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“波洛”减弱至3级，但下加利福尼亚州洪灾威胁加剧

“波洛”已不再是5级风暴，但仍是近海的一场强飓风。南下加利福尼亚州面临危险降雨预报，各地正在为周一可能发生的穿越提前准备避难所和物资。

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飓风“波洛”在近海盘旋时曾是5级风暴，但如今的问题是它将给陆地带来什么。根据美国国家飓风中心于9月28日星期一06:00 UTC发布的公告，“波洛”已减弱至3级，持续风速为120 mph (195 km/h)。它仍是一场强飓风，仍在近海，并正朝墨西哥下加利福尼亚州半岛逼近。等级降低并不意味着可以忽视预报中的降雨：对低洼社区和地势陡峭地区的居民来说，山洪和泥石流可能是这场风暴最危险的部分。2 123

风暴中心位于北纬23.2°、西经114.0°，距卡波圣卢卡斯以西约260英里 (420 km)，距卡波圣拉萨罗西南约155英里 (250 km)，正以10 mph (17 km/h)的速度向北移动。NPR报道的周日傍晚125 mph读数是较早的观测值，并非与周一早晨对“波洛”强度的测量相冲突。截至约08:30 UTC，尚无“波洛”在南下加利福尼亚州登陆得到确认的消息。1 123

关键事实

  1. 120 mph06:00 UTC的持续风速 123
  2. 12 in下加利福尼亚州局部地区预报的最高降雨量 123
  3. 111据报已启用的避难所 101
  4. 2,923部署在南下加利福尼亚州的海军人员 101

预测中的穿越，不是已经登陆

预报显示，“波洛”将于周一晚些时候抵达半岛西岸，周一夜间横穿南下加利福尼亚州，并于周一深夜或周二清晨前往墨西哥西北部大陆。墨西哥海军预测，风暴将于周一当地时间下午5至6时左右抵达圣胡安尼科附近；该地是科蒙杜的一个渔业和冲浪社区。这是对风暴抵达某一特定社区附近的预测，并非已记录的袭击。周日的预报对风暴抵达海岸时的预期风力有所不同；沿海风速和最终穿越地点均未确定。79 13 21 123

飓风警报覆盖南下加利福尼亚州西岸从蓬塔阿布雷奥霍斯到圣塔菲的地段，以及东岸从洛雷托到圣罗萨利亚的地段。大陆地区的警报范围从巴伊亚基诺延伸至哈姆帕比托。警戒范围还覆盖相邻地段，包括向北至蓬塔尤金尼亚，以及从洛雷托向南至圣埃瓦里斯托。预计周一上午，半岛警报区南部将出现热带风暴状况，随后西岸最迟于下午晚些时候将出现飓风状况。大陆警报区可能于周一深夜至周二清晨出现飓风状况。这些是危险状况预计抵达的时间，并不能证明风暴中心已经越过海岸。123

飓风中心预报，南下加利福尼亚州部分地区降雨量为4至8英寸 (约100至200 mm)，局部最高可达12英寸 (约300 mm)。索诺拉州部分地区可能降雨4至6英寸 (约100至150 mm)，局部可达8英寸 (约200 mm)。这些数字都不是实测降雨量。暴雨落在陡峭地形上可能引发危及生命的山洪和泥石流。风力将海水推向岸边的地区，风暴潮可能造成严重沿海洪灾，并掀起巨大且具有破坏性的海浪；墨西哥西北部沿海部分地区预计还会出现危险的海浪和离岸流。123 2

海军另行预测，受影响的南下加利福尼亚州及加利福尼亚湾地区降雨量为150至250 mm。其预报所涵盖的区域，与飓风中心对半岛和索诺拉州的估算所描述的范围并不相同。两份预报的关键都不是给每个城镇一个统一的降雨数字：即使不在风眼穿越地点附近，居民仍可能面临危险的洪水。79 123

道路变得无法通行前做好准备

墨西哥海军表示，已根据其预防性“海军计划”应对方案，在南下加利福尼亚州部署2,923名人员；报道称，其中589人部署在其圣罗萨利亚海军辖区。海军已派遣支援船“伊斯拉蒂布龙”号前往马萨特兰，船上载有2,000份食品包、8,000升饮用水、反铲装载机、车辆、船只、工程设备和一架直升机。这是提前部署，并非登陆后损毁的证据。提前部署很重要，因为一旦洪水中断交通，食品、水和机械就更难运送。16 101 103

报道称，拉巴斯、洛斯卡沃斯、科蒙杜、洛雷托和穆莱赫共启用了111处避难所，可容纳14,445人。另一个数字169指的是全州范围内潜在避难所的更广泛清单；这并不意味着169处全部开放。受影响地区的港口已关闭或限制航行；9月28日和29日的课程及部分政府活动也已暂停。据报墨西哥太平洋沿岸实施了预防性疏散，但没有经核实的数字显示有多少人离开了圣胡安尼科或南下加利福尼亚州，也没有已确立的全州强制疏散令。101 38 77 21

6,968和约7,500这两个较广泛的应对人员数字，反映的是不同机构的统计和报告口径。不能将它们与海军的2,923人相加并得出有意义的总数。对风暴本身也应同样谨慎：早前将“波洛”描述为5级，说明的是它在近海时有多强，而不是它现在的强度；预测它将登陆，只说明哪些地方亟需准备，并不代表已经发生登陆。38 14 2

已知

  • 在最近一次查阅的公告中，“波洛”是近海的3级飓风；避难所和海军人员已部署到南下加利福尼亚州。 123101

未知

  • 具体的沿海穿越地点、降雨总量，以及南下加利福尼亚州是否出现人员伤亡或登陆后的损毁，目前均未确定。

后续

  • 关注“波洛”将从何处穿越、抵达海岸时有多强，以及暴雨是否会切断半岛上的交通，或影响索诺拉州的脆弱社区。
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  1. Hurricane Polo is closing on Baja California Sur with winds of 120 miles an hour. It has weakened, but parts of the peninsula could receive a foot of rain, threatening low-lying communities and steep terrain with flash floods and mudslides. Where will Polo cross the coast, and how much rain will the peninsula and Sonora take?
  2. Polo has lost its Category Five intensity, but it remains a major hurricane. Sunday evening's reading put its sustained winds at 125 miles an hour, about 270 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, moving north at 12 miles an hour. The newer, six o'clock UTC reading lowered the winds to 120 miles an hour, or 195 kilometers an hour. Its center was at 23.2 degrees north, 114 degrees west: about 260 miles west of Cabo San Lucas and 155 miles southwest of Cabo San Lázaro. It was moving north at 10 miles an hour, with central pressure at 954 millibars. Those are successive observations, not competing descriptions of its current strength.
  3. Hurricane warnings cover both coasts of Baja California Sur and a stretch of mainland Mexico. On the peninsula, they run from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe on the west coast and from Loreto to Santa Rosalía on the east. On the mainland, the warning runs from Bahía Kino to Huatabampito. Watches cover adjoining coastlines, including north toward Punta Eugenia and south of Loreto toward San Evaristo. Tropical-storm conditions were expected in the southern part of the peninsula's warning area Monday morning, with hurricane conditions on its western coast by late afternoon. The forecast then takes Polo across Baja California Sur Monday night and toward the northwestern mainland late Monday night or early Tuesday. Hurricane conditions could reach the mainland warning area during that period. The track and strength at each crossing can still change.
  4. Twelve inches is the isolated maximum forecast for parts of Baja California Sur, not rain that has already fallen. The broader forecast there is four to eight inches, about 100 to 200 millimeters. Parts of Sonora could receive four to six inches, locally eight. Rain of that scale could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially on steep ground, even if Polo's peak winds continue to fall. A separate navy forecast calls for 150 to 250 millimeters in affected Baja California Sur and Gulf of California areas; it covers a differently defined area and is also a forecast, not a measurement. Where winds drive water ashore, storm surge could cause significant coastal flooding with large, destructive waves. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along parts of Mexico's northwest coast for several days.
  5. San Juanico is a remote fishing and surfing community in Comondú on the peninsula's west coast. The navy projects Polo arriving nearby between five and six Monday evening, local time. A separate Sunday forecast anticipated landfall Monday night with coastal winds of 60 to 80 miles an hour. Those are changing projections of timing and strength, not two recorded landfalls or a measured coastal wind speed. By about 08:30 UTC Monday, Polo was still offshore at the last checked bulletin; no Baja California Sur landfall had been established.
  6. Mexico's navy has deployed 2,923 personnel in Baja California Sur under its preventive response. Reports place 589 at the Santa Rosalía naval sector. The support vessel Isla Tiburón was sent toward Mazatlán carrying 2,000 food packages, 8,000 liters of drinking water, two backhoes, three Ural vehicles, three Zodiac boats, engineering equipment and an MI-17 helicopter. The supplies and machinery are being positioned before heavy rain might cut access to communities in Polo's potential path.
  7. One hundred and eleven shelters have been enabled across La Paz, Los Cabos, Comondú, Loreto and Mulegé, with room for 14,445 people. The separate figure of 169 is the state's broader inventory of potential shelters; it does not mean 169 have opened. Ports have been closed or navigation restricted in affected areas, and classes and some government activities were suspended for September 28 and 29. Precautionary evacuations have been reported along Mexico's Pacific coast, but there is no verified count for San Juanico or Baja California Sur and no established statewide mandatory-evacuation order.
  8. Broader federal deployment figures of 6,968 and roughly 7,500 use different agency counts and reporting bases. Neither is a further group to add to the navy's 2,923, and they do not establish one reconciled total. As for the question facing coastal communities, the forecast points to western Baja California Sur and then the mainland, but the crossing point, timing, strength and rainfall totals are not yet known. Before the expected landfall, there was no verified Baja California Sur casualty count or post-landfall damage assessment.

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引用来源

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