政治 · 西班牙住房与选举持续报道 · 第 2 篇,共 2 篇
马里卡门去世时仍未能回家。西班牙的住房之争仍未解决
马里卡门·阿巴斯卡尔再也没有回到她在马德里居住多年的公寓。她去世之际,工会已确定11月11日举行罢工,而西班牙也公布了替代性住房法律,但具体保护范围仍未解决。
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持续报道第 9 天
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一位被驱逐的87岁老人、一次失败的住房表决,如今是一个被解散的西班牙议会我们当时说尚无定论的问题
候选人登记时间为10月21日至26日,以及大选宣布后进行的首轮民调。
尚无定论候选人登记仍定于10月21日至26日。在此处尚未核实任何符合条件的大选宣布后全国民调;这并不能证明此类民调不存在。
现在
马里卡门·阿巴斯卡尔再也没有回到她在马德里居住多年的公寓。她去世之际,工会已确定11月11日举行罢工,而西班牙也公布了替代性住房法律,但具体保护范围仍未解决。
新的进展
- 工会呼吁举行全国24小时住房与工资大罢工;行动尚未发生。
- 西班牙大选日期维持不变。
据《国家报》援引马德里租户工会的消息,马里卡门·阿巴斯卡尔原本有望重返她居住了约七十年的马德里公寓。她最终未能回家。这位87岁的退休人士于2026年10月7日在格雷戈里奥·马拉尼翁医院去世。自9月23日官员用担架将她抬走后,她一直住院。4
她的去世带来了无法挽回的人道结局,而政治上的结果仍未明朗。西班牙政府已公布替代性住房法令,全国最大的工会则呼吁于11月11日举行全国住房与工资大罢工。但新保护措施的确切适用范围及其是否获得议会确认,在11月29日选举前仍未解决。165 167 5
10月6日,我们报道了首相佩德罗·桑切斯在两项住房法令被否决后宣布举行大选、议会已解散,以及阿巴斯卡尔经协商达成的返家安排未能让她回家的消息。大选日期没有变化。变化之处在于,替代立法如今已经出台,而阿巴斯卡尔期盼的归家永远不会实现。
目前尚未确认死因。遭驱逐、住院和死亡构成一段时间顺序,并不能证明驱逐导致她死亡。租户工会认为返家协议来得太迟,这一判断不能被转化为医学结论。BBC新闻报道称,她住院期间无法签署;《马卡报》报道称,她从未出院返家。2 158
阿巴斯卡尔的住所位于马德里雷蒂罗区的伊维萨街区。我们9月27日的报道追溯到她父亲于1956年签署的租约。她的经历成为集会的焦点,因为它揭示的问题远不止一场租金纠纷:即便居住数十年,也不能保证一名老年租户能够留下来。157
关于其身份的表述也需谨慎。BBC新闻10月7日的报道称她为马里卡门·阿巴斯卡尔;欧洲新闻台10月7日的报道使用马丽娜·阿巴斯卡尔;CNN 10月6日的报道则使用玛丽亚·德尔·卡门·纳瓦斯库埃斯。玛丽亚·德尔·卡门“马里卡门”·阿巴斯卡尔是已确认的身份。其他名称尚未核实为别名,也不代表另有其他租户。2 3 11
通往家的路,而非归家
租金数字尚未确定,远不如最终结果明确。BBC新闻10月7日报道称,Urbagestión将月租从€500提高到€2,650,随后提出€1,650的租金——仍比她的退休金高€300。我们9月27日的报道记录了房主否认曾要求€2,650租金。反复出现的这一数字与房主的否认仍未得到调和。后来的报道暗示她的退休金为€1,350,但算术推算并非经过核实的退休金记录。2
CNN称月租从约$600涨至近$3,000;环球新闻称租金涨了五倍。若没有共同的换算日期和依据,这些说法不能证明合同金额相同。“五倍”也并不精确:€2,650是€500的5.3倍,即上涨430%。计算过程很直接;但法律上实际要求或应付的金额仍不明确。11 12 2
《El Imparcial》9月29日报道的调解安排又有所不同:一份为期八年的租约,租金不超过净收入的30%。这只能证明报道所述的拟议条款,不能证明合同已签署。早先报道援引她的律师称她可以搬回去,那只是关于可能返家的说法,并非她确实回去的证据。200 68
她遭驱逐一事让人们的注意力聚焦于住房难以负担、驱逐和投机问题。这并不能证明一名女性被驱逐就单独引发了全国大选。具体的事件顺序是:国会于10月2日否决两项紧急法令,随后桑切斯于10月5日宣布举行选举。17
替代法案与仍未解决的保护措施
10月6日,部长会议批准了一揽子修订后的21项住房措施。官方公报于10月7日刊登了第28/2026号皇家法令(关于住宅租赁稳定)和第29/2026号皇家法令(关于住房的社会功能和可负担住房供应)。这项刊载推翻了我们先前关于尚未核实任何替代法令的判断。但这并不能证明议会常设委员会(Diputación Permanente)随后确认了这些法令。166 165 167
据报道,较广泛法令的生效日期为10月8日,租约稳定法令则为11月15日。现有官方材料未能确认完整的生效与过渡规则。因此,无法负责任地断言某位租户在上述任一日期享有哪些权利。171
摘要称,法令将暂停影响弱势群体的驱逐,但并未说明全部资格条件、例外情况,也未确认保护会持续至2030年。租约摘要称,将强制续租五年;另有摘要区分房东为公司的情况,称续租期为七年——而不是最初法令被否决前所述的两年延长期。在没有完整条文的情况下,不应简单宣称任何人的租约都会自动延长。172 198 199
接下来的定期节点
住房愤怒与选票交汇
UGT和CCOO呼吁举行罢工,如今确定了日期,而我们此前的报道没有给出日期。这场定于11月11日举行的停工行动将在投票日前18天、正式竞选期开始前两天举行。两工会在10月5日的公报中同意秋季举行24小时罢工,但须经各自理事机构批准;10月7日的报道确定了日期。目前尚未确认最终决议,也未确认所有支持组织均已完成批准程序。174 175 176
工会所述目标是“Salarios dignos para acceder a una vivienda digna”:有体面的工资,才能住得起体面的住房。工会公报将住房成本与工资不足和通货膨胀联系起来。公众诉求包括可负担租金、价格管控和终结投机,但尚未核实任何包含具体工资增幅、租金上限或实施期限的完整纲领。174 176 180
桑切斯寻求更广泛的进步派多数。分析人士哈维尔·卡博内尔在法国24台表示,住房议题可能重新激活失去政治参与热情的左翼选民;对少数派政府而言,这是相对有利的议题领域,因为政府需要逐项协商争取支持。这是选举评估,并非经过测量的投票率影响。2 14
左翼阵营尚未完成组织整合,而将人民党描述为可能成为最大党、将呼声党描述为必要盟友的说法仍属预测,不是选举结果或联盟协议。本报道尚未确认存在任何一项在10月5日宣布大选后进行、且符合条件并核实了实地调查时间的全国民调。148 149 2
住房问题并非桑切斯面临的唯一压力。他还因通货膨胀、涉及其政党和部分家人的腐败丑闻,以及对休达移民紧急事件的应对而受到批评。这些批评不能证明他本人有罪;反对移民政策也不能证明移民造成了住房危机。1 12
对于休达事件的数字应谨慎看待:美联社10月6日的一篇报道称,7月下旬的越境人数约为80,000人,但该段内容及官方佐证均未能独立核实。美联社/PBS于7月31日报道称,24小时内约有60,000人越境;国际救援委员会8月7日的说法则是,不到48小时内约有72,000人。不同时间段的估算不能相加,也不能只选最高数字来调和差异。1 188 186
对租户而言,眼下的检验标准不是住房问题是否主导演讲,而是替代法律实际上保护了什么,以及这些保护措施能否通过确认。阿巴斯卡尔的经历以未能回家告终。她遭驱逐一事促使人们关注的政治角逐,尚未为仍面临风险的人们带来明确答案。
播出原貌 44 行
- On October 6, we reported Maricarmen Abascal hadn’t returned home; now she has died. Her eviction became a rallying point for housing protests. A nationwide strike now has a date, and replacement housing decrees exist ahead of Spain’s unchanged November 29 election.
- What do those replacement decrees actually protect, and have they survived parliamentary validation?
- María del Carmen “Maricarmen” Abascal died on October 7 at Gregorio Marañón Hospital, aged 87. She had remained hospitalized after officials forcibly carried her from her flat on a stretcher on September 23. She was never discharged to return home.
- She could not sign the proposed return agreement while hospitalized. No medical cause of death has been established. The sequence of eviction, hospitalization and death does not establish that the eviction caused her death; calling the agreement too late is not a medical conclusion.
- Abascal had lived for about seven decades in her Retiro flat, in Madrid’s Ibiza neighborhood. The tenancy traced back to a lease her father signed in 1956. A proposed route back into that home never became an actual return.
- Maricarmen Abascal is the established identification. Marina Abascal and María del Carmen Navascués are not verified aliases, and do not identify additional tenants in this case. She had no family relationship to the leader of Vox.
- The euro-denominated rent account runs from €500 to €2,650 a month, followed by a €1,650 offer described as €300 above her pension. Urbagestión, the owner, had denied demanding €2,650. That denial and the repeated figure remain unreconciled.
- The €1,650 offer being €300 above her pension implies income of €1,350. That is arithmetic, not an independently verified pension record. It also differs from an earlier roughly €1,000 pension estimate. Neither calculation settles what rent was legally enforceable or what she actually paid.
- €2,650 is 5.3 times €500: a 430 percent increase, not exactly fivefold. Earlier tenant descriptions of 230 percent or 275 percent do not match that calculation. The arithmetic is clear; the underlying contractual history is not.
- The dollar-denominated description—about $600 rising to nearly $3,000 monthly—cannot simply be substituted for the euro figures. Without a common conversion date and contractual basis, they are not established as identical amounts. None of those rent descriptions establishes the terms of the later mediated arrangement.
- The September 29 arrangement proposed an eight-year rental contract, with rent no higher than 30 percent of net income. Those were proposed terms, not proof of an executed lease. Permission to return and physically returning were different things; Abascal never returned.
- Tens of thousands marched in Madrid, with housing demonstrations in other cities. Madrid estimates of about 70,000 and about 500,000 remain unreconciled. Abascal’s eviction focused anger over unaffordable housing, evictions and speculation; it does not establish that she alone triggered a national election.
- Earlier demonstrations in Valencia also brought confrontations with police guarding a property-investment summit. Whether protesters entered the venue remains disputed. Five people were detained and nine police officers were reported injured. Those were earlier developments, not new incidents accompanying Abascal’s death.
- Congress rejected the rental-renewal decree on October 2 by 184 votes to 166, and the broader housing decree by 178 to 172. The People’s Party, Vox and Junts opposed the measures. Those votes were not votes on the replacements now published.
- The Council of Ministers approved a revised package of 21 housing measures on October 6. Two replacement decree-laws were published on October 7. That changes the earlier position in which no replacements were verified, but executive approval and publication do not establish parliamentary validation.
- Real Decreto-ley 29/2026 concerns housing’s social function and expanding affordable supply. Its companion, Real Decreto-ley 28/2026, concerns stability of residential leases. Their identities and publication are established. Whether they survive validation, and precisely which tenants benefit, are separate questions.
- The reported commencement dates are October 8 for the broader decree and November 15 for the lease-stability decree. The operative commencement and transitional rules have not been independently verified in full. Publication alone cannot establish every protection a tenant may invoke on those dates.
- Suspension of evictions affecting vulnerable people is described among the measures. Eligibility, exceptions and duration remain unestablished here. A proposed protection through 2030 must not be presented as a verified current entitlement, or as an eviction ban covering every household.
- The new lease summaries describe compulsory five-year renewal, rather than the two-year extensions described before the original defeat. Another version distinguishes five years generally and seven when the landlord is a company. The exact obligation and contracts covered remain unverified; an individual tenancy cannot simply be declared automatically extended.
- No completed Diputación Permanente validation vote is established as of October 8. October 16 has been identified as a possible approval date, but an official sitting and agenda are not confirmed. That date must not be confused with the reported November 15 lease commencement.
- The Diputación Permanente is the continuing parliamentary body that can handle decree-laws after the chambers’ dissolution. Describing it as a caretaker committee does not mean the government entered caretaker status when the election was called. Government caretaker status follows the vote.
- UGT and CCOO have called a nationwide, 24-hour general strike for November 11 over housing and wages. The stoppage would come 18 days before the November 29 election and two days before the formal campaign begins. It has not happened yet.
- The unions’ objective is decent wages sufficient to access decent housing. Their October 5 agreement proposed a 24-hour strike that autumn, subject to approval by their highest governing bodies. October 7 fixed the November 11 call, but final governing-body resolutions remain unverified.
- Other reported participants include the Confederación de Sindicatos de Inquilinas, CGT, Acción Social de Solidaridad Obrera and Co.Bas. Supporting organizations were scheduled to ratify the date on the afternoon of October 7. Completed organization-by-organization votes are not established. A dated call does not prove universal formal ratification.
- The publicly stated demands include ending housing speculation, controlling rising prices, and affordable rents that wages can pay. A complete platform, specific wage increase, numerical rent ceiling and implementation deadline are not established. The call links inadequate wages, housing costs and inflation.
- The action is described as the first general strike jointly backed by UGT and CCOO in 14 years, or since 2012. Those descriptions agree arithmetically, but the claimed interval has not been independently established against a complete intervening historical record.
- Sánchez leads the PSOE–Sumar minority coalition and negotiates support law by law. He wants a broader progressive majority to advance reforms. The People’s Party and Vox welcomed the election call; Sánchez warns against a conservative government dependent on the far right.
- The electoral wager is that housing could re-energize disengaged left-wing voters; that is an assessment, not a measured turnout effect. Opponents favor a market-led response and argue renter protections could prompt owners to withdraw homes. That consequence is not established for these decrees.
- The election remains Sunday, November 29, brought forward from the reported August 2027 timing. Sánchez announced it on October 5; the dissolution decree took effect on October 6. The election date is unchanged, not a fresh announcement following Abascal’s death.
- Candidacies are to be filed October 21 through 26. The formal campaign runs November 13 through 27, followed by the November 28 reflection day. That is a 15-day campaign, not 55 days. The new chambers are scheduled to meet December 23 at 10 a.m.
- Sumar’s Frente Amplio has a public presentation planned for October 17, involving parties including IU, Más Madrid and Comuns. Mónica García is described as a frontrunner, not a confirmed candidate. A scheduled launch does not settle the left’s leadership or unity.
- Podemos has sought open primaries, with October 14 and 15 proposed as dates. No agreed Sumar–Podemos slate or final joint candidate is established. A proposal for primaries is not proof that they occurred, or that the parties agreed to their result.
- The October 17 presentation is one day after the reported October 16 coalition deadline, not inside that window. But presentation and legal registration are separate events. A launch can follow a completed filing; the dates alone do not prove a procedural failure.
- The official coalition calendar and actual registration remain unverified. Candidate filing on October 21 through 26 is a separate requirement. Left unity and leadership therefore remain open questions, rather than questions answered by the announcement of a presentation.
- The People’s Party is projected as potentially the largest party, with Vox a possible necessary governing partner. Those are projections, not results or an agreed coalition. No qualifying national poll with verified fieldwork after October 5 is established here; that does not prove none exists.
- Housing is not Sánchez’s only campaign pressure. He faces criticism over inflation, corruption scandals involving his party and some family members, and the government’s response to the Ceuta migration emergency. Those allegations and criticisms do not establish his personal guilt.
- Ceuta is Spain’s territory on the North African coast, beside Morocco. The People’s Party and Vox oppose Sánchez’s pro-immigration policies. That campaign argument is not evidence that migrants caused Spain’s housing crisis. The crossing totals themselves also require correction and restraint.
- The dated estimates include about 60,000 crossings in 24 hours, about 72,000 in under 48 hours, and more than 70,000 at July’s end. The later 80,000 figure is not an independently established, reconciled official total. These numbers cannot be added together.
- The claimed October 6 passage supporting 80,000 has not been independently verified, and official corroboration of that number is not established. An earlier estimate of about 70,000 in 48 hours cannot simply be treated as the same count as 60,000 in 24 hours.
- An estimate of 50,000 attempts measures something different from completed crossings. Death tolls also differ: at least 18, at least 57, 88 reportedly, and a broader tally of at least 141 across Ceuta, nearby waters and Fnideq. They are not one established total.
- Those dated records describe dangerous crossings and deaths. The largest tally covers a broader geographical area; choosing it does not resolve the other figures. Neither the crossing totals nor the tolls have a sufficiently common basis to declare one account the final count.
- The return accounts also conflict on destination: over 70,000 returned to Morocco, versus most returned “to Ceuta.” That wording remains unresolved. An earlier description that most left voluntarily does not establish the current disposition of every person who crossed.
- On August 8, people were described sleeping outdoors without tents or blankets, facing severe heat and cold nights. Those are dated conditions, not a verified October assessment. The October claim that thousands remained cannot establish a precise current population or everyone’s present circumstances.
- The answer on housing protection is partial: replacement laws exist, but no completed parliamentary validation vote is established as of October 8. Their precise eligibility and transitional rules remain unverified. An automatic extension for an individual tenancy cannot yet be established.
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