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灾害 · 沿海洪水

圣胡安县的警报已结束。周六潮汐仍威胁道路

较低严重程度的预警覆盖太平洋标准时间周六上午7时至中午。道路仍可能出现零星封闭，而周五的当地影响尚未得到核实。

文字 阅读需 4 分钟 · 18 个来源

HeyDex

原语言视频

译自英文原文。

周六上午，水可能漫入圣胡安县的临海停车场、公园和道路。预报人员预计只有零星道路封闭——但如果有人只能通过一条地势低洼的道路出入，一处封路就足以打乱行程。⁠18

该县的沿海洪水警报于太平洋标准时间（PST）2026年11月13日星期五中午结束。下一个风险时段的严重程度较低，为沿海洪水预警，时段为太平洋标准时间11月14日星期六上午7时至中午。美国国家气象局西雅图分局预计，高潮位时会出现轻微沿海洪水，而非周五上午预报的严重洪水。⁠12⁠18

这意味着预期严重程度明显降低，但并不代表容易遭受洪水影响的财产已无风险。周六的预警仍指出，海岸线和沿海低洼地区可能出现潮水漫溢。预报并未称洪水会遍及全县，而周五警报结束也不能证明哪些地方未受损。⁠18

从周五的警报到周六的预警

  1. 太平洋标准时间2026年11月13日星期五凌晨4:31

    美国国家气象局西雅图分局维持现有的沿海洪水警报，预报的洪水时段为上午6时至中午。此次更新没有延长警报的结束时间。

    1
  2. 太平洋标准时间2026年11月13日星期五上午11:38

    一则上午较晚时发布的更新称，警报将在中午到期，并公布周六上午7时至中午的预警。

    12
  3. 太平洋标准时间2026年11月13日星期五下午2:47

    下午发布的沿海灾害信息继续保留周六的预警。周五上午的警报已不再生效。

    18

道路预报尤其清楚地体现了这一变化。周五的警报预计高潮位和风暴潮会导致多处道路封闭。周六的预警则预计只有零星道路封闭。这是对两个不同高潮位时段的预测，并非对实际无法通行道路数量的相互矛盾统计。支持本报道的证据中，没有经过核实的圣胡安县道路封闭清单。⁠4⁠18

水位高度不等于道路积水深度

水位数字需要谨慎解读，因为公告的措辞起初可能会让人误解。周五的可能范围为2.5至3英尺；周六为1.75至2.25英尺。虽然警报将这些范围描述为“高于地面”的淹水高度，但也明确将该说法定义为高于平均较高潮位基准（MHHW）的高度。⁠4⁠18

MHHW是潮汐基准面。因此，这些数字描述的是相对于该基准面的可能水位高度，并非实测的高出路面、住宅地板或每处海岸房产地面的水深。这两个范围都不意味着每个沿海地点都会出现所述高度的积水。若把周六的预报解读为某条特定道路上约有2英尺深的水，就会赋予这项预报并不具备的精确度。⁠18

采用同一基准面后，两项预报可以进行比较：周六的范围较低。但这并不能证明洪水已经退去某个特定幅度，也不能说明周六可能造成的损失会减少多少。要得出这些结论，需要当地观测数据以及对受影响情况的评估。

周五的警报描述了可能造成的严重后果：低洼住宅、商家和部分关键基础设施可能被淹，海岸线也可能遭受侵蚀或破坏。这些是预报人员在高潮位到来前指出的风险，并非已确认被淹建筑或受损设施的清单。不能将这些风险当作已确定的损失，也不能视为周五下午及夜间仍然有效的警报。⁠4

地面情况仍未得到核实

周五上午，有观测证据显示更广泛地区发生了沿海洪水。美国国家气象局西雅图分局在太平洋标准时间上午9:06发布的预报讨论中表示，区域潮位计显示，高潮位时出现轻微至中度沿海洪水。但该讨论没有说明这些观测数据来自圣胡安县。它无法证实该县周五达到预报的水位范围。⁠9

这一区别很重要，因为官方公告对风险的描述比对其当地影响的描述更明确。现有记录无法确认圣胡安县有多少条道路封闭、哪些住宅或商家进水，或关键基础设施是否受损。次日上午的预报水位较低，并不能弥补这些信息缺口。

周六的实用建议很简单：在上午的风险时段到来前，保护容易遭受洪水影响的财产；出行时预留更多时间，因为部分道路可能封闭。“轻微”描述的是预期洪水的等级，并不意味着可以冒险测试被水淹没的道路是否能够通行。⁠18

不要绕过路障，也不要驾车驶过深度不明的积水。

美国国家气象局西雅图分局 18

接下来值得关注的是，后续公告是否会调整预警，以及高潮位实际会如何影响当地通行。在此之前，周六的展望意味着洪水范围预计不及周五预报的广泛——但并不保证易受影响的道路会保持畅通。

来源13

在此处引用的来源中，Edit USA最先发布，比本报道播出早22小时。 随后还有5家媒体发布。
  1. Edit USA
  2. Global Incident Tracker
  3. Daily Farmington
  4. National Weather Service
  5. IJR News
  6. Warning Vector
  7. HeyDay News

7家媒体未注明日期：forth.newswashington.eduareazine.comNotice Nearbythenewstribune.comtri-cityherald.com

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来自 13 家媒体的 18 个来源· 引用最多的优先

播出原貌
  1. High tide threatens low-lying roads in San Juan County again.
  2. Friday's coastal flood warning ended at noon, but a lower-severity advisory covers Saturday morning. Flooding could still close roads and reach shoreline parking lots and parks.
  3. How much disruption could the next high tide bring after the warning ended?
  4. Shorelines and low-lying coastal areas face the next flooding risk. The advisory covers San Juan County in Washington, with minor flooding forecast around high tide. The danger centers on those low areas, rather than every part of the county.
  5. The next advisory runs from seven a.m. to noon Pacific time on Saturday, November fourteenth. Forecasters expect tidal overflow, with a lower water-level range and fewer road closures than they forecast for Friday morning.
  6. Friday's early-morning update kept the existing noon end time in place. A late-morning announcement confirmed that expiration and introduced Saturday's advisory. By Friday afternoon, the warning had ended, and forecasters continued the advisory for the next morning.
  7. Friday's more serious forecast covered six a.m. to noon. High tides and storm surge were expected to produce significant coastal flooding. Forecasters warned that low-lying homes, businesses and some critical infrastructure could flood, and shoreline erosion or damage could occur.
  8. Friday's forecast range was 2.5 to 3 feet above a tidal reference level called Mean Higher High Water. Saturday's possible range is 1.75 to 2.25 feet above that same reference. Both figures are forecasts for separate high-tide periods.
  9. Subscribe to this channel as we follow Saturday's high tide and any changes to the advisory.
  10. The height wording can easily give the wrong impression. The bulletins use the phrase “above ground level,” then define it using Mean Higher High Water. That definition governs how to understand both forecast ranges.
  11. Mean Higher High Water is a tidal reference level. The figures describe possible water heights relative to that reference. They don't describe measured water depth inside homes or across roads, and they don't mean every shoreline location will reach the forecast height.
  12. Saturday's forecast calls for only isolated road closures, compared with Friday's expectation of numerous closures. Those are predictions for different mornings. For someone whose access depends on a low-lying road, even one closure can disrupt a trip.
  13. Parking lots, parks and roads could flood as water spills into low coastal areas around Saturday's high tide. The lower-severity advisory means forecasters expect less extensive disruption, but flood-prone property still needs protection before that next morning's hazard window.
  14. Regional tide gauges did show minor to moderate coastal flooding Friday morning. Those observations covered the wider forecast area. They weren't identified as measurements in San Juan County.
  15. San Juan County's actual road closures and property damage haven't been tallied in a confirmed local assessment. So the practical outlook is a lower flooding forecast for Saturday, while which roads become impassable depends on what the next high tide brings.
  16. Another bulletin could change the advisory before it ends. For now, the travel guidance is concrete: allow extra time because some roads may close, and take steps to protect flood-prone property.
  17. Any isolated closure still needs to be respected. If travel is necessary, allow extra time for a possible blocked route. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth.

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