California’s ocean is already running high. The next tides threaten a battered coast

Newport Beach’s ocean is running 18–22 inches above predictions—before the next round of morning high tides arrives. The city’s October 22 alert describes an elevated starting point for water that could reach flood-prone neighborhoods over the coming days. ²⁴

As of Saturday evening, October 24, California time, the coastal flood warning for San Diego and Orange counties is still ahead: it begins at 5 a.m. Sunday and runs through 1 p.m. Thursday, October 29. Forecasters expect significant flooding that threatens low-lying homes, businesses and critical infrastructure, with shoreline erosion around the morning peaks. Farther north, a separate advisory covering the San Francisco Bay shoreline, Monterey Bay and Big Sur coast has already begun. ^{51 53 52}

The danger is not simply that the tides will be high. Water will meet a coast where beaches have narrowed, roads have been undermined and earlier flooding has already breached defenses. Sand, pumps and boulders are being positioned before the next test—not after a newly confirmed disaster. ¹

California is not under one statewide warning. The southern warning, the advisories farther up the coast and the separate Sonoma–Marin timetable cover different places and periods. All times below are Pacific daylight time.

For people visiting the shore, elevated water can carry waves farther up beaches and restrict escape routes. The southern surf forecast also flags high rip-current risk. A beach that remains accessible before the tide rises may not offer the same way out later. ^{1 51}

Newport Beach’s adjusted outlook places its most consequential peaks on Monday through Wednesday mornings: 8.3 feet at 9:15 a.m. Monday, 8.5 feet at 9:50 a.m. Tuesday and 8.4 feet at 10:28 a.m. Wednesday. The city describes those figures as 1.8 feet above predictions that omit the unusually elevated ocean conditions. ¹

Those are water elevations, not forecasts of eight feet of flooding inside homes. The distinction matters just as much farther north: the forecast of up to 1.9 feet beside vulnerable shorelines and tidal waterways describes potential water depth above ground. It cannot be compared directly with an eight-foot tide measured against a low-water reference level. NOAA defines a tidal datum as a reference elevation from which heights and depths are measured. ^{52 21}

The Los Angeles Times reports an adjusted outlook of 7.5–8 feet or higher for Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego coastal areas, measured against an average low-water baseline from 1983–2001. Its report says La Jolla could exceed eight feet. That remains a projection, not an established observation or a verified new record. ¹

The Times also reproduces federal astronomical predictions for La Jolla of 6.14 feet Sunday morning, 6.44 Monday, 6.59 Tuesday, 6.55 Wednesday and 6.3 Thursday. Those figures omit the anomalously elevated ocean conditions. The exact five-day station table and its local peak hours have not been independently established for this report, so the sequence should not be mistaken for a checked observation series. ¹

Several contributors are overlapping. Southern California water levels have been running 1.25–1.75 feet above astronomical predictions, according to the Weather Service estimate reported by the Times. Scripps researcher Reinhard Flick described levels at least half a foot above predictions for months. Warm water expands; surface water at Scripps Pier was around 73 degrees Fahrenheit on October 22, compared with a seasonal average of 66. ¹

The longstanding marine heat wave is distinct from the developing El Niño influence arriving from the eastern Pacific. An El Niño-related Kelvin wave—a broad ocean disturbance—can also raise coastal levels. Near-peaks in the 18.6-year lunar-node and 4.4-year lunar-perigee cycles add to the astronomical tides. Behind those immediate influences sits the longer-term rise associated with human-caused warming: roughly a foot along California over 125 years. None of those quantities determines the flood depth at a particular home. ¹

This episode also differs from earlier flooding powered partly by swells associated with the remnants of hurricanes Marie and Rachel. Those tropical-storm-related swells are not expected this time, but higher tides are. “You’re going to have different contributing factors producing a similar outcome,” Weather Service San Diego meteorologist Philip Gonsalves told the Times. ¹

Newport Beach’s emergency preparations predate this weekend. Its formal local emergency proclamation is dated October 9; a later city notice addresses the October 26–28 tides and activation of the emergency operations center. The response includes reinforcing sand berms, preparing pumps and tide valves, and positioning resources in flood-prone areas. ^{27 22 1}

The city urges waterfront and low-lying residents to inspect seawalls for gaps or low points, use sandbags or temporary barriers where needed, and consider moving vehicles to higher ground. About 30–40 trucks have been moving sand from above Prado Dam to The Wedge, where erosion exposed rusted rods and concrete from old buried infrastructure. The goal was 2,000 cubic yards by Saturday; completion has not been confirmed. Thousands of sandbags have also been installed in vulnerable parts of Balboa Island. ¹

On the Long Beach Peninsula, earlier seawater damaged homes and tore up the historic boardwalk. The city began dredging Alamitos Bay on October 20 and piping sand to the Peninsula, adding visible beach near the 72nd Place parking lot, according to the Times. Boardwalk repairs have begun. These are efforts to restore protection already lost, not evidence that the coming tides have passed harmlessly. ¹

Roads are another weak point. Near Crystal Cove, a cracked slope below Coast Highway has left two of four lanes closed between Reef Point and Irvine Cove drives, with the remaining lanes carrying one direction each. Caltrans is placing four-foot-tall sand-filled barriers below the road; a rock-reinforced supporting mound at the slope’s base is planned next. Near Point Mugu, crews are installing boulders where water has undermined Highway 1. ¹

In Malibu, ABC News reported crews placing rocks and boulders along an eroded shoreline ahead of anticipated king tides. Separately, ABC7’s October 21 report described surf washing away shoreline at Zuma Beach and threatening Westward Beach Road and the Sunset Restaurant. Those accounts establish existing vulnerability and defensive work—not measured flooding from the approaching tide peaks. Malibu falls under the Los Angeles County advisory, not the San Diego–Orange warning. ^{2 34 1}

For rail commuters, a consequence is already scheduled. As HeyDay News reported earlier Saturday evening, October 24, California time, Metrolink plans a five-day coastal service interruption. Its October 22 announcement suspends Orange County Line service between Laguna Niguel/Mission Viejo and Oceanside from Monday, October 26, through Friday, October 30. OCTA’s rider alert says no alternative transportation will be available. This is a defined segment, not a systemwide shutdown. ^{41 43}

The next test is Sunday morning, followed by Newport Beach’s Monday–Wednesday peaks. Actual flood depths, additional damage and any La Jolla reading above eight feet remain unconfirmed. Higher tides are also anticipated around Thanksgiving, Christmas and Martin Luther King Jr. Day; strong winter storms coinciding with those peaks would increase the threat. For now, the practical deadline is before the morning water arrives. ¹