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贝塞拉预计赢得加州州长选举，负担能力承诺将面临检验

希尔顿已承认落败，但计票结果尚未认证。贝塞拉预计胜选，意味着住房、医疗保障以及加州对华盛顿的抵制将面临检验。

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HeyDex

原语言视频

译自英文原文。

哈维尔·贝塞拉在萨克拉门托一个685平方英尺的房子里长大，家中有父母和三个姐妹。这栋房子位于工薪阶层社区。如今，他预计将执掌加利福尼亚州，而在这里，找到负担得起的住房仍是安居立业最难解决的问题之一。⁠9

CBS新闻预测，民主党人将在加利福尼亚州11月3日的州长选举中击败共和党人史蒂夫·希尔顿。美联社也宣布贝塞拉胜选。他预计将接替任期届满的州长加文·纽森，成为加州第41任州长，任期预计于2027年1月4日开始。选举结果尚未获得认证。⁠7⁠23⁠10⁠1

希尔顿于周二太平洋时间晚上9:15前不久承认落败，并在花园格罗夫向约800名支持者发表讲话。他说：“加利福尼亚州有了新州长。”“我知道这不是你们希望的人选，但我确实祝哈维尔·贝塞拉一切顺利。”他的认输表明他如何回应预计的败选，但不能取代选票的清点和认证程序。⁠9

《洛杉矶时报》报道，美联社在太平洋时间晚上8点、投票站刚关闭后宣布胜选者。这是报道所述的美联社宣布时间，并非已确定的CBS预测时间。选举官员仍须完成全州计票，贝塞拉最终的胜选优势也尚未确定。⁠9

KQED追踪器的一张数据快照显示，贝塞拉得票率为63.9%，希尔顿为36%，并估计已计入59.27%的选票。这些是来自次级来源、未经认证的数据，并非经核实的全州官方总计。该快照的报道截止时间和其已计选票估算的依据均不清楚，因此无法据此确定最终胜选优势，也无法精确计算尚有多少选票未计。⁠22

在西萨克拉门托自己的集会上，贝塞拉作出了一项超越击败共和党对手的承诺。他说：“我参选不是为了创造历史。”“我参选是为了让每一个把加利福尼亚州当作家园的人——无论你是否投票给我——都能有所收获。”⁠9

有前任的里程碑

贝塞拉将成为加州首位由选民直接选出的拉丁裔州长。这个限定很重要：罗穆阿尔多·帕切科于1875年2月27日至12月9日担任州长。帕切科当时是副州长，在纽顿·布思离任赴美国参议院任职后接任州长；选民并未直接选举他担任那届州长。⁠9⁠11⁠17

11月4日的报道对这段历史的描述并不一致。路透社视频标题称贝塞拉是加州“首位拉丁裔州长”，没有附加限定。CBS洛杉矶频道称他是帕切科以来的首位，而《洛杉矶时报》使用了更准确的“首位由选民直接选出”这一说法。帕切科任职的记录表明，路透社未加限定的说法不正确。这是一个新的选举里程碑，并非拉丁裔在加州担任州长的开端。⁠2⁠1⁠9⁠11

在拉丁裔占加州居民总数40%以上、约占选民三分之一的州，这一区别意义重大。现年68岁的贝塞拉履历横跨斯坦福大学、代表洛杉矶出任国会议员、领导国会西班牙裔党团、担任加州总检察长，以及在拜登政府卫生与公共服务部任职。他的父亲曾在农场和建筑工地工作；出生于墨西哥的母亲则是一名文职人员。⁠9⁠7

两位最终候选人都不是在这场竞争激烈的选战一开始就显而易见的领先者。埃里克·斯沃韦尔于4月在遭遇性侵和不当行为指控后退选，贝塞拉随后崛起；斯沃韦尔否认这些指控。贝塞拉在6月初选中获得约28%的选票，希尔顿约25%，亿万富翁汤姆·斯泰尔约23%。随后，一项10月针对可能投票者的民调显示，贝塞拉以61%对34%领先——这反映的是选前支持度，并非11月的选举结果。纽森和前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯支持贝塞拉；特朗普总统则为希尔顿背书。希尔顿是保守派评论员，也曾担任英国政治策略师。⁠7

负担能力承诺的代价

建设一个我们负担得起的加利福尼亚州，捍卫一个我们输不起的加利福尼亚州。

哈维尔·贝塞拉 9

这个选举之夜的表述将两项并不总是容易兼顾的目标结合在一起：降低家庭开支，同时维护贝塞拉竞选时承诺捍卫的政策和公共服务。选举结果预计将给他机会尝试实现这些目标，但并不能证明其中任何一个目标已经达成。

在住房方面，贝塞拉计划宣布进入紧急状态并加快建设。他的提案包括执行要求地方政府允许建造更多住房的法律、减少建筑审批繁文缛节、扩大首付援助的可及性，以及保护潜在购房者免遭投资者竞价压过。这份选举结果报道并未证实住房紧急状态命令已经发布，也未证实因此建成了住房。⁠9⁠7

这些举措针对的是不同障碍。加快审批和执法关系到住房供应；首付援助关系到哪些人能够买房。真正有用的检验标准，是这些措施能否增加住房供应并改善购房机会，而不只是看是否宣布进入紧急状态。

希尔顿提出了另一条路径：免除收入前150,000美元的州所得税、废除汽油税、限制住房开发费用，并新建10座城市以鼓励建设。在9月举行的两人唯一一场单独辩论中，贝塞拉辩称希尔顿的税收提案会“让工薪家庭的处境更难”；希尔顿则表示，减税会让加州居民手头有更多钱。这些是相互竞争的竞选主张，并非已经证实的财政结果。⁠7

能源政策上的分歧同样明显。希尔顿将汽油价格高企归咎于气候政策和监管。贝塞拉承诺在推进清洁能源转型的同时降低日常开支。希尔顿的解释是竞选论点，并非对加州燃油价格溢价的独立核算；贝塞拉的承诺同样不能证明价格会下跌。⁠7

医疗保健可能对贝塞拉的施政议程构成最严峻的预算限制。他希望避免Medi-Cal（加州公共医疗保障计划）出现服务中断，包括为无证工人提供的保障。《洛杉矶时报》报道，联邦削减资金可能高达300亿美元。这是一项资金风险，并非已经确认的损失，也不是已经敲定的预算数字。保护保障范围意味着，负担能力承诺不仅关乎家庭账单，也关乎州政府支出。⁠9

从反抗到施政责任

贝塞拉预计胜选，预示着加州将继续在移民问题上抵制华盛顿，而非采取希尔顿提议的政策逆转。贝塞拉承诺维护加州的庇护州法SB 54。该法由州长杰里·布朗于2017年签署，贝塞拉担任州总检察长时曾在联邦政府面前为其辩护。希尔顿反对该法，支持州政府与移民执法全面合作，但他也表示要努力“降低紧张程度”。⁠7

这种对比表明了州政策的预期方向，但不能确定未来法律冲突的结果。贝塞拉还将接手加州与特朗普政府在环境保护和医疗资金方面的争端；在这些领域，捍卫州的立场和维持预算平衡可能会密不可分。⁠9

在州内问题上，贝塞拉承认，无家可归问题的进展“还不够好”，并强调预防和心理健康服务。希尔顿提出在2027年底前清除露营地，并设立无家可归者康复中心。任何一方的政纲本身都不能证明人们已经获得永久住房。贝塞拉还将接手野火防备和应对工作，其中包括一个尚未解决的问题：大火摧毁社区时，费用由谁承担。⁠7⁠9

希尔顿向支持者承诺将继续战斗：帮助共和党人在2028年打破民主党在州议会的绝对多数地位。对贝塞拉来说，下一个明确的过渡节点是预计于1月4日举行的就职典礼。从预计胜选到行使权力之间，还有计票完成和结果认证；而之后更艰难的考核，则是建成多少住房、保障多少医疗覆盖，以及为承诺提供了多少资金。⁠9⁠1

来源17

在此处引用的来源中，NBC News最先发布，比本报道播出早35小时。 随后还有5家媒体发布。
  1. NBC News
  2. KTLA Los Angeles
  3. Los Angeles Times — California
  4. CBS Los Angeles
  5. Al Jazeera
  6. Reuters
  7. HeyDay News

3篇早期文章作为背景资料参阅。8家媒体未注明日期：apnews.comcbs8.comkqed.orgNational Governors AssociationOffice of Emergency ServicesOffice of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives

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来自 17 家媒体的 28 个来源· 引用最多的优先

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  1. Steve Hilton conceded defeat and wished Xavier Becerra well.
  2. Democrat Becerra is projected to become California’s first directly elected Latino governor, succeeding term-limited Gavin Newsom.
  3. Becerra would inherit high housing costs, pressure on healthcare funding and conflict with the Trump administration over immigration and environmental policy. What would his affordability pledge mean for housing, healthcare and California’s confrontation with Washington?
  4. Becerra is projected to become the state’s forty-first governor after the November third election. The result still awaits certification, and his expected first day in office is January fourth, twenty twenty-seven.
  5. The race was called as polls closed. Hilton conceded shortly before nine fifteen that night, speaking to about eight hundred supporters in Garden Grove. He acknowledged that Becerra would be the next governor and wished him well.
  6. Hilton told his supporters, “We have a new governor of California.” He also promised to help Republicans break the Democratic legislative supermajority in twenty twenty-eight. “The fight goes on,” he said. “We have a plan.”
  7. Hilton’s concession settles his response to the projected defeat. Election officials still have to complete the count and certification. The size of Becerra’s final winning margin remains unsettled.
  8. An uncertified snapshot puts Becerra at 63.9 percent and Hilton at 36 percent. The tracker estimated 59.27 percent counted, but its cutoff and counting base are unclear. Those figures can change as officials finish counting.
  9. Becerra’s projected victory also carries a precise historical distinction. He would be the first Latino governor chosen directly by California voters. Romualdo Pacheco held the office more than a hundred and fifty years earlier.
  10. Pacheco became governor through succession. He had been lieutenant governor when Newton Booth left for the United States Senate. Becerra would be the first Latino governor since Pacheco, and the first directly elected to the office.
  11. Pacheco served from February twenty-seventh through December ninth, eighteen seventy-five. That earlier tenure belongs in California’s history alongside this projected milestone. Today, Latinos make up more than forty percent of the state’s population and roughly a third of its voters.
  12. Becerra, sixty-eight, grew up with his parents and three sisters in a six-hundred-and-eighty-five-square-foot house in working-class Sacramento. His father worked on farms and construction sites. His Mexico-born mother was a clerical worker.
  13. Becerra went to Stanford, represented Los Angeles in Congress and chaired the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. He later became California attorney general and President Biden’s health secretary. Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris backed his campaign.
  14. Hilton entered the race as a conservative commentator and former British political strategist, with President Trump’s endorsement. Both finalists advanced from a crowded field. Becerra’s rise followed Eric Swalwell’s April withdrawal amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations, which Swalwell denied.
  15. Becerra received about twenty-eight percent in June, Hilton about twenty-five percent and billionaire Tom Steyer about twenty-three percent. By an October likely-voter poll, Becerra led Hilton sixty-one to thirty-four percent. That poll measured support before election day.
  16. Becerra addressed his election-night gathering in West Sacramento and paid tribute to his parents and labor organizer Dolores Huerta. “I didn’t run to make history,” he said. He said he ran to serve everyone who calls California home, including people who voted against him.
  17. Becerra summed up his mission this way: “Deliver a California we can afford and defend a California we can’t afford to lose.” His campaign paired promises to lower everyday costs with a commitment to preserve the clean-energy transition.
  18. The candidates disagreed sharply about how to lower costs. In their only one-on-one debate, in September, Becerra argued Hilton’s tax proposals would “make it harder for working families.” Hilton argued that lower taxes would leave residents with more money.
  19. Hilton proposed ending state income taxes on the first hundred and fifty thousand dollars of income and repealing the gasoline tax. He also proposed capping housing-development fees and creating ten new cities to encourage construction.
  20. Hilton blamed climate regulations for high gasoline prices. Becerra promised lower costs while keeping California’s clean-energy transition. On housing, Becerra wants to protect prospective buyers from being outbid by investors and enforce laws requiring local governments to allow more homes.
  21. Becerra also proposes reducing construction red tape and expanding access to down-payment assistance. He plans to declare a housing emergency and accelerate building. Those are the tools he’s promising to use against high housing costs.
  22. On immigration, Becerra pledged to uphold California’s sanctuary-state law, which he defended against Washington as attorney general. Governor Jerry Brown signed it in twenty seventeen. Hilton opposed that law and supported full state cooperation with immigration enforcement.
  23. Hilton also spoke of securing the border and trying to “lower the temperature” around immigration. Becerra’s projected victory points toward continued state resistance to federal enforcement demands, alongside California’s broader disputes with Washington over environmental policy.
  24. Their homelessness plans also diverged. Hilton proposed eliminating encampments by the end of twenty twenty-seven and creating a statewide network of Homeless Recovery Centers. Becerra said progress hadn’t been “good enough” and emphasized prevention and mental-health services.
  25. Both candidates supported keeping film production in Los Angeles, though Hilton blamed Democratic leaders for productions leaving. Becerra also faces preparations for international visitors to the twenty twenty-eight Olympics and decisions about the growth of artificial intelligence.
  26. Healthcare will put a price on the affordability pledge. Becerra wants to avoid disruptions to Medi-Cal, California’s public health-coverage program, including coverage for undocumented workers.
  27. Potential federal healthcare cuts could reach as much as thirty billion dollars. That’s a risk facing the incoming administration, rather than a loss already booked. Protecting coverage would force Becerra to confront that pressure in state budget negotiations.
  28. He’ll also inherit decisions about who pays when major wildfires destroy communities, alongside disaster preparation and response. His projected arrival would put leaders from working-class immigrant backgrounds at the center of negotiations among the governor, Assembly speaker and state Senate president.
  29. Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas said the standard should be results. “History is going to remember us because we made a difference,” he said. “We want California to work for everybody.”
  30. Becerra’s affordability agenda starts with faster homebuilding and protecting health coverage, while preserving the state’s resistance to Washington on immigration. The next named transition milestone is January fourth, twenty twenty-seven, when he’s expected to take office.

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