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科学 · 哈勃的下一项任务

哈勃需要提升轨道。NASA安排这项任务的窗口正在缩小。

NASA正在评估业界能否在2032年前提升这台老化望远镜的轨道或为其提供服务。NASA自己的预测表明，为什么这一年并不能保证安全。

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译自英文原文。

对于研究遥远星系、恒星爆炸或其他世界大气层的科学家来说，失去哈勃意味着失去一扇被广泛使用的观测宇宙之窗，而不只是与一台著名望远镜道别。NASA预计，约到2040年才会有替代设备。在此之前要让哈勃继续发挥作用，需要解决两个不同的问题：它的轨道正在降低，硬件也在老化。⁠12

NASA目前正在询问商业公司能否提供帮助。2026年10月29日发布的一份信息征询文件，探讨了提升哈勃轨道、为天文台提供维护以增强其能力，或为其任务安排有序收尾等选项。业界回复须于美国东部标准时间11月30日下午3时前提交。NASA尚未通过这份征询为任何救援方案拨款、签订合同或排定日程。⁠3⁠12

核心问题不是哈勃是否值得获得更多观测时间，而是公司能否及时抵达它、安全地处理它，并提出NASA愿意支付的价格。

风险已隐含其中的截止日期

哈勃无法自行提升轨道。大气阻力会逐渐降低它的高度，而望远镜没有用于维持轨道的推进系统。NASA在10月30日的公告中表示，如果不采取干预措施，预计哈勃可能会在2033年或2034年再入大气层，因此NASA预计任务需要在2032年前执行。这是规划要求，不是已经授予的发射日期，也不意味着哈勃能安全地等到那时。⁠3

信息征询文件对倒计时给出了更具体的说明。文件援引2026年7月的一项寿命分析，指出哈勃在2032年9月前再入大气层的概率为10%，到2033年12月时为50%。这些是逐步累积的概率，而不是日历上的两个既定日期。较早的日期已经意味着干预机会可能错过的风险不可忽视。⁠12

10%预计截至2032年9月的再入大气层概率 12
50%预计截至2033年12月的再入大气层概率 12

无论是大致的再入窗口，还是这些概率，都不能确定哈勃返回地球的准确日期或地点。但它们确实说明，把2032年视为宽裕的截止期限是错误的：研发、测试和发射都必须在一个已经不断上升的风险到来之前完成。⁠3⁠12

NASA提出的轨道提升方案有明确要求。NASA希望了解业界能否研发、测试并操作一艘飞行器，在近地轨道捕获哈勃，并将其送至至少600公里的高度。这指的是抵达地球上方600公里的高度，并非在望远镜现有高度上再增加600公里。轨道提升或服务任务都必须避免损害哈勃。⁠12

其他可能性仍在考虑之中。维修可以提升天文台的性能、韧性和预期工作寿命。受控再入大气层可以管理其最终处置；NASA更广泛的公告也允许将其处置在轨道上。这些都是正在评估的能力，可能彼此独立或互为补充，并非三项已获批准的任务。⁠3⁠12

市场摸底，而非任务

征询文件明确写道：「这不是一份提案征集。」公司提交信息，是为了帮助NASA测试可能的要求并制定潜在采购策略。这份通知不构成政府的任何承诺，政府也不会为公司的回复付费。之后是否发布正式征集，仍取决于后续情况。⁠12

NASA目前要的是能力证据，而不是一份看起来诱人的任务草案。回复方必须说明自己能够完全承担哪些工作，提供相关经验的客观实例，并解释如何弥补能力缺口。文件要求说明发射、交会与捕获方案、关键技术的成熟度以及完成时间表。⁠12

工程问题远不止如何与哈勃接触。飞行器捕获哈勃时，它可能以多快的速度旋转？飞行器会与哈勃连接多久？组合后的航天器将如何控制？对于轨道提升，公司必须说明轨道高度的增幅，以及其系统仍能抵达目标高度的最低初始轨道。⁠12

NASA还要求提供风险评估、安全措施、最早可实现的服务日期、估算成本和付款时间表。公司必须列明所需的政府设施及其他资源。戈达德太空飞行中心将提供技术信息、协助联系哈勃专家并协调望远镜运行；服务提供方则负责提供运载火箭、服务航天器及其任务运行服务。只有「如适用」时才包括载人机组——NASA尚未决定是否会派宇航员执行任务。⁠12

此前也曾探讨商业公司介入。2022年9月，NASA与SpaceX达成一项无资金支持的协议，研究「龙」飞船能否提升哈勃轨道。正如《连线》杂志所述，那是一项可行性研究，并非承诺执行或资助服务任务。它也不能证明新一轮征询已有中选者或可行方案。⁠1

近期还有一个警示：不能因为航天器成功发射，就认定救援一定成功。《连线》杂志报道，一项提升NASA雨燕天文台轨道的行动未能成功；2026年7月发射后，Katalyst Space Technologies的航天器发生姿态控制故障。雨燕于11月4日在印度尼西亚上空再入大气层。这次失败并不能决定哈勃的前景，但说明经过验证的控制能力和可靠运行，与计划抵达的目标同样重要。⁠1

提升轨道只是工作的一半

自1990年发射以来，哈勃已接受过五次维修，最近一次是在2009年由宇航员执行。然而，它的指向硬件仍在持续退化。2024年6月，在一台仍可工作的陀螺仪（用于测量方位）读数异常后，NASA宣布转为单陀螺仪运行模式。另一台正常工作的陀螺仪则留作备用。这段历史提醒人们，提高天文台的轨道并不能修复它的仪器或航天器系统。⁠1

尝试延长哈勃寿命的科学价值相当可观。信息征询文件称，哈勃观测时间的申请量超过可用时间的七倍，研究成果每年超过1,000篇科学论文，且产出还在增长。哈勃的紫外和光学观测与韦布、罗曼及其他天文台相辅相成，支持从行星系统和系外行星大气层，到恒星生命周期及星系演化等领域的研究。⁠12

哈勃未来仍有重要的科学工作要做，我们应该探索每一个合理的机会，让它尽可能长久地持续发挥作用。

贾里德·艾萨克曼 3

NASA局长将延长哈勃寿命视为一种方式，让纳税人已经买单的资产产出更多科学成果。NASA科学事务副局长妮基·福克斯表示，商业捕获和服务能力已迅速进步，她希望在NASA研发计划中接替哈勃的旗舰任务之际，探索提升哈勃轨道的方案。这些都是值得开展调查的理由，却不能证明一项安全、负担得起的任务已经准备就绪。⁠3

征询文件中列出的潜在继任者是宜居世界天文台。约2040年是规划时间框架，并非保证投入运行的日期。延寿或可缩短人们无法使用哈勃能力的空档，但前提是望远镜仍能产出科学成果。成功与否应以增加了多少有用的观测年限来衡量，而不能只看轨道高度。⁠12

下一个具体节点近在眼前：11月30日的业界回复截止日期。随后，NASA必须决定这些回复是否足以支持其从收集信息转向采购。NASA提出了一个正确的实际问题——业界究竟能交付什么？但提出这个问题并不能阻止哈勃继续下降。⁠2⁠12

来源15

在此处引用的来源中，Google News Nigeria (NG:en)最先发布，比本报道播出早25小时。 随后还有1家媒体发布。
  1. Google News Nigeria (NG:en)
  2. Orbital Wire
  3. HeyDay News

8篇早期文章作为背景资料参阅。6家媒体未注明日期：Aerosyn Inc.CLEATUSGovTribeNASA Scientific Visualization StudioSAM Directorysam.gov

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来自 15 家媒体的 16 个来源· 引用最多的优先

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  1. Hubble is losing altitude and can't raise its own orbit.
  2. NASA anticipates a mission would need to reach the telescope by 2032. Without intervention, Hubble will likely reenter the atmosphere in 2033 or 2034. The agency is asking commercial companies how they could help.
  3. Can industry deliver a safe, affordable mission before Hubble runs out of time?
  4. NASA puts the chance of reentry by September 2032 at ten percent. By December 2033, it's fifty percent. Those estimates come from a July lifetime analysis. They describe accumulating risk, so waiting until 2032 could already be too late.
  5. Atmospheric drag gradually lowers the telescope's altitude. Hubble has no propulsion system to counter it. The broad reentry window is a forecast, and NASA hasn't pinpointed when or where the telescope would come down.
  6. NASA opened this information request on October twenty-ninth. It's asking what companies can deliver and whether possible requirements are realistic. A rescue hasn't been funded, contracted or scheduled. NASA won't pay companies for submitting their information.
  7. The agency is considering an orbit boost, servicing that improves Hubble's performance and resilience, and a managed end to its mission. That could mean controlled atmospheric reentry or disposal in orbit. These capabilities could be alternatives or work together.
  8. For an orbit boost, NASA wants a vehicle that can capture Hubble and take it to at least 600 kilometers above Earth. Companies would have to develop, test and operate that vehicle without harming the telescope.
  9. Companies must explain how their spacecraft would approach and capture Hubble, and how mature the key technologies are. NASA also wants the maximum telescope rotation their capture system could tolerate, how long they'd stay attached, and how they'd control the joined spacecraft.
  10. Goddard would supply technical information, access to Hubble experts and coordinated telescope operations. The commercial provider would supply the launch vehicle, spacecraft and its mission operations. NASA leaves room for a crew if needed, without choosing whether astronauts would fly.
  11. For a boost, companies must specify the altitude gain and the lowest starting orbit their system could work from. They must assess risks to Hubble, explain safeguards and give their earliest service date. NASA also wants costs, payment schedules and the government resources each company would need.
  12. Subscribe to this channel as NASA tests whether industry can reach Hubble safely and in time.
  13. Astronauts have serviced Hubble five times since its 1990 launch. NASA canceled the final visit after the Columbia disaster in 2003, then reconsidered the risks and benefits. The mission flew in 2009 and included battery replacement.
  14. NASA explored commercial help before this request. In September 2022, it entered a no-funding agreement with SpaceX to study whether Dragon could raise Hubble's orbit. That agreement examined feasibility. NASA had no plans then to conduct or fund the servicing mission itself.
  15. A spacecraft malfunction ended an effort to lift NASA's Swift Observatory. NASA commissioned Katalyst Space Technologies in September 2025. Its spacecraft launched in July 2026, but an attitude-control failure forced the mission to be abandoned.
  16. Swift reentered the atmosphere over Indonesia on November fourth. Hubble's proposed intervention would face its own technical and financial tests. Companies must identify relevant experience, show which tasks they can fully perform, and explain how they'd handle gaps in their capabilities.
  17. Hubble's pointing hardware has also deteriorated. In June 2024, NASA announced a move to operation with one gyro, a device that measures orientation. Three of its original six were still working, but one gave abnormal readings. Another functioning gyro is held in reserve.
  18. Raising Hubble's orbit could preserve more observing time. Servicing could also improve its performance and resistance to failures. The scientific case depends on both, because a telescope that stays aloft still needs working instruments and reliable spacecraft systems.
  19. Hubble's observing time is more than seven-to-one oversubscribed. Its work produces more than a thousand scientific papers annually, and that output is growing. NASA expects no replacement before approximately 2040, with Habitable Worlds Observatory identified as a potential successor.
  20. Hubble's ultraviolet and optical observations complement Webb, Roman and other observatories. Scientists use it to study planetary systems and exoplanet atmospheres, stellar life cycles and galaxy evolution. Its work also measures the temperature and chemistry of material inside galaxies and between them.
  21. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman says Hubble still has important science ahead. He wants the agency to explore innovative, cost-effective ways to extend its life, linking more discoveries to better use of an asset taxpayers have already paid for.
  22. Keeping Hubble useful could reduce a gap before a successor begins work. The approximately 2040 horizon is a planning estimate, and the benefit depends on how long Hubble's instruments and other systems can continue operating.
  23. Nicky Fox, NASA's associate administrator for science, says commercial capture and servicing capabilities have advanced rapidly. She wants to explore boosting Hubble while NASA develops the flagship observatory intended to follow it.
  24. NASA is also asking how to widen participation. Companies should identify possible partners, including international ones, and suggest realistic roles for small businesses. The agency wants obstacles spelled out, from certification and specialized tools to security requirements and high-risk work.
  25. Companies must describe their business size and applicable socioeconomic status. NASA is considering smaller work packages, subcontracting opportunities and teaming or mentor-protégé arrangements. Those responses would help shape a possible acquisition strategy and test whether the proposed work is practical.
  26. Responses are limited to twenty-five pages and must arrive electronically as unlocked PDFs. NASA specifies twelve-point Times New Roman for paragraphs, single spacing and one-inch margins. Companies can't submit export-controlled material. They must clearly mark proprietary information, which NASA may use for future planning.
  27. Hubble is a joint NASA–European Space Agency project. Goddard in Greenbelt, Maryland, manages the telescope and mission operations, with support from Denver-based Lockheed Martin Space. The Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore conducts science operations.
  28. The institute is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy. NASA may identify respondents in public discussions of the results, and it may not answer submitted questions. Any later solicitation would appear through the federal contracting system.
  29. Companies have until November thirtieth, at three p.m. Eastern, to respond. NASA then has to judge whether their ideas offer a safe, affordable mission that can arrive in time, and decide whether to seek formal bids.
  30. For now, NASA is testing commercial capabilities while Hubble continues losing altitude. The anticipated intervention year is 2032, but the modeled risk of reentry reaches ten percent by September of that year.

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