灾害 · 南加州火灾持续报道 · 第 3 篇，共 4 篇

北方山火控制率达到75%，但降雨可能带来新的风险

消防人员在控制更多火线周边的同时，北方山火过火面积维持在570英亩。7栋住宅受损或被毁，临近的降雨可能给过火山坡带来另一种危险。

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持续报道第 6 天

4 篇报道84 家媒体194 个来源7 个视频

完整报道
  • 暂无标注日期的事件
  1. 第 1 次更新Norte 火灾控制率仅为5%，部分撤离居民已可返家
  2. 第 2 次更新Norte火灾疏散令全部解除，火灾控制率达到60%
  3. 第 3 次更新北方山火控制率达到75%，但降雨可能带来新的风险当前位置
  4. 第 4 次更新Norte山火控制率达80%，地下热点仍让消防人员持续作业较新

自上次报道以来的变化

15 小时后

当时

Norte火灾疏散令全部解除，火灾控制率达到60%

现在

消防人员在控制更多火线周边的同时，北方山火过火面积维持在570英亩。7栋住宅受损或被毁，临近的降雨可能给过火山坡带来另一种危险。

圣胡安卡皮斯特拉诺有7栋住宅受损或被毁。消防人员在控制北方山火（Norte Fire）火线周边方面取得了重大进展，但评估仍未说明这些房屋中有多少已完全损毁，也未说明有多少家庭目前还无法在家中居住。2

据《橙县纪事报》报道，截至10月19日星期一上午，北方山火的报告控制率达到75%，过火面积仍为570英亩。与星期日晚上相比，控制率提高了15个百分点。随着圣安娜风减弱，消防人员在遏制火势蔓延方面取得进展。本周晚些时候预计会有降雨，这可能给刚刚过火的山坡带来另一种危险：泥石流。2 1

这些是不同的安全指标。控制率指已得到控制、不再蔓延的火线周长占比，并非过火面积中已被扑灭的比例。它不能证明每栋房屋都适宜居住、过火地带已经开放，也不能证明山坡能够抵御强降雨。

关键事实

  1. 75%星期一上午公布的北方山火控制率 2157
  2. 570英亩北方山火报告过火面积，未变 269
  3. 83%机构星期一列表中的布赖森山火控制率 170

我们10月19日的报道刊载了星期日晚间北方山火控制率为60%的评估，以及所有疏散令均已解除的消息。星期一报告的75%取代了此前的控制率；社区重新开放一事此前已经发生。最新的百分比见于《纪事报》和另一份Forth报道，两者均将数据归于橙县消防局。最新一条带有直接时间戳的橙县消防局更新于太平洋夏令时间星期日晚上6:45发布，记录的仍是60%；星期一机构更新的具体时间尚未确定。160 2 157 144

返回家园不等于恢复

北方山火于10月16日星期五上午11:33在圣克莱门特的波蒂科德尔诺特路（Portico Del Norte）和埃米嫩西亚德尔诺特路（Eminencia Del Norte）附近开始。强劲的圣安娜风推动火势早期蔓延至圣胡安卡皮斯特拉诺。橙县消防局负责领导救援行动；事故出现在CAL FIRE网站上，并不意味着这是由CAL FIRE管理的火灾。69 1

最初的疏散令涉及约16,000名居民和6,000栋住宅。这些数字反映的是疏散令覆盖范围，并非经核实的撤离人数。北方山火的所有疏散令均于10月17日星期六下午6点前解除，避难所也已关闭。仍无法入住受损住房的居民人数尚不清楚。160

我们还需要更正10月17日的播报，当时称至少有6栋房屋被毁。这夸大了房屋被毁的数量：此前的评估将受损和被毁的房屋合并统计。目前的合并统计为7栋；《纪事报》星期一的报道将其全部列为圣胡安卡皮斯特拉诺的房屋。两次评估都没有提供单独且可靠的房屋被毁总数。160 2

社区重新开放并未解除所有出入限制。截至相关公告发布时，埃斯佩兰萨路以北的维亚拉米拉达路（Via La Mirada）仍因应急作业而禁止车辆通行，过火地带也仍作为活跃火灾危险区域关闭。目前尚无更新的经核实通知证实这些限制已结束。返回已解除限制的社区，与进入过火地带是两种不同的许可。160 144

橙县消防局（OCFA）队长肖恩·多兰告诉《纪事报》，两名北方山火消防员星期五受伤并被送往医院。较早的信息称，两人星期六情况稳定，其中一人已出院；星期日公布的情况称他们正在好转。至少一人接受了中暑治疗。星期一的报道再次提到两人住院，但没有确认两名消防员是否都已出院或完全康复。2 160

停电不等于起火原因

调查人员尚未确定是什么引燃了北方山火。报道显示，附近圣迭戈天然气与电力公司（SDG&E）的设备停运记录时间比记录的起火时间早两分钟。这一先后顺序值得调查，但不足以证明火灾由公用事业设备引发。加州林业与消防局（CAL FIRE）的事故列表仍将起火原因列为调查中。162 69

这一点也适用于公用事业公司实际确认的情况。据一份关于SDG&E电子邮件回复的报道，该公司确认发生了停电，但未提供准确时间、电路或确切地点。目前尚未确认有任何故障部件或故障机制。加州公用事业委员会（CPUC）也区分了自身职责与火灾原因调查人员的职责：该委员会的野火调查审查的是公用事业公司是否遵守规则和法规，而不是确定起火原因。165 163

目前，停电只是调查线索，并非解释。时间上的接近不能替代将设备与起火联系起来的证据。

三场火灾，尚待完成的工作各不相同

在马里布，CAL FIRE星期一的列表显示，布赖森山火（Bryson）控制率达到83%，过火面积为146英亩；该列表于上午7:47更新。这比星期日晚上报告的74%高出9个百分点。县政府星期日公布的更精确面积为146.2英亩；星期一列表将其四舍五入为146英亩，并不意味着火灾面积缩小了。170 171

布赖森山火于10月15日开始，报道称马里布的疏散令和警告已于星期日解除。县政府星期日晚间的评估列出一名消防员受伤，没有平民受伤或死亡，也没有建筑物受到威胁、受损或被毁。评估预计星期一将实现完全控制，但预期并不等于结果：目前最新确认的列表仍显示控制率为83%。起火原因仍在调查中。170 171 173

对于彭德尔顿营附近的亨德森山火（Henderson），目前有依据支持的最新控制率数据是星期日的65%；《洛杉矶时报》报道称，当时过火面积已超过3,100英亩。哥伦比亚广播公司报道称面积约为3,200英亩，但两项估算的测量时间不一致，无法据此确定火势蔓延速度。目前尚未确认亨德森山火有更新的官方控制率或疏散状态。星期日的一份地区报道说，三场火灾的起火原因仍在调查中。1 172

地区整体情况正在好转，但这并非同一场事故。北方山火受影响的7栋住宅和两名住院消防员，不属于布赖森或亨德森山火的统计数据；一处火线的进展也无法对另一处作出确定判断。

降雨将带来下一轮风险

美国国家气象局10月19日发布的圣迭戈地区天气展望称，10月21日至22日星期三和星期四可能有阵雨和雷暴，其中最可能的时段是星期三夜间至星期四上午。展望称，从海岸到山区，区域性出现足以湿润地面的降雨概率超过90%。这是降雨概率，并非降雨量，也不是某一处过火山坡发生泥石流的概率。71

再往北，洛杉矶地区的天气展望称，范围较广的降雨可能从星期二夜间或星期三开始，持续至星期四，并有小概率出现雷暴。降雨何时开始尚未确定，北方、布赖森和亨德森各自过火地带的降雨量和强度也未确定。这些当地情况关系到泥石流风险；地区降雨概率不能替代这些信息。177 1

计划在北方山火过火地带进行消防灭火后的修复工作，但尚未公布详细工作范围和完工时间表。随着预报中的降雨临近，相关工作仍未完成；这并不意味着泥石流一定会发生。2

播出原貌 18 行
  1. Firefighters have secured seventy-five percent of Norte's perimeter, reducing the risk of spread.
  2. On October nineteenth, we reported Sunday's sixty percent containment and the lifting of evacuation orders. Monday's reported seventy-five percent brings a fifteen-percentage-point gain, while the footprint remains five hundred seventy acres.
  3. Seven homes are damaged or destroyed, and two firefighters were hospitalized. The Santa Ana winds have eased, but approaching rain could bring debris flows around freshly burned slopes. How much protection do the containment gains give returning residents as that rain approaches?
  4. Norte spread from San Clemente into San Juan Capistrano, where the seven affected homes stand. Bryson burned in Malibu. Henderson burned near Camp Pendleton. They're separate fires, with different containment levels and different consequences for the communities around them.
  5. Norte began Friday, October sixteenth, near Portico Del Norte and Eminencia Del Norte. Strong Santa Ana winds drove its early advance. Orange County Fire Authority leads the response. Containment measures how much of the perimeter crews have secured against spread. Hot spots can still need work inside those lines.
  6. The seven-home assessment combines damaged and destroyed houses. Our earlier coverage called at least six homes destroyed. That overstated the destruction count. The earlier assessment combined damage and destruction, too. Seven homes now fall within that combined category.
  7. About sixteen thousand residents and six thousand homes were initially covered by evacuation orders. Those figures describe who was ordered to leave; they don't count verified departures. All orders were lifted by Saturday evening, October seventeenth, and shelters closed. Families could return to released neighborhoods, though damaged houses may still be uninhabitable.
  8. Via La Mirada north of Esperanza remained closed to vehicles for emergency work when the neighborhoods reopened. The burn scar also remained closed as an active fire-hazard area. Officials haven't announced a reopening of those restricted areas in a newer notice.
  9. Two Norte firefighters were injured Friday and taken to a hospital. At least one received treatment for heat exhaustion. Both were described as stable Saturday, when one had been released. Their condition was improving Sunday. Monday's update gives no further recovery outcome.
  10. A nearby San Diego Gas and Electric equipment outage reportedly occurred two minutes before Norte's recorded start. The utility confirmed an outage. Investigators haven't determined what ignited the fire or whether that outage was connected to it.
  11. The utility's confirmation didn't supply the precise time or exact location. Investigators still have to determine the relationship between the two events. State utility investigators examine compliance with utility rules; fire investigators determine ignition cause.
  12. Bryson reached eighty-three percent containment Monday at one hundred forty-six acres, up nine percentage points from Sunday. Henderson's last supported update was Sunday's sixty-five percent containment, after more than three thousand one hundred acres had burned.
  13. Bryson began October fifteenth. Malibu's evacuation orders and warnings were lifted Sunday. Sunday's impact assessment listed one firefighter injury, no civilian injuries or deaths, and no structures threatened, damaged or destroyed. Crews had expected full containment Monday, but the latest listing still shows eighty-three percent.
  14. Henderson's burned area was also described as about three thousand two hundred acres. Those estimates don't have matching measurement times, so they can't show how fast it grew. The causes of Bryson and Henderson also remained under investigation.
  15. Rain changes the immediate concern around the burned slopes. The San Diego-region forecast calls for showers and a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday night through Thursday morning is the most likely window. Farther north, the Los Angeles-region outlook allows rain to begin Tuesday night or Wednesday.
  16. The regional chance of wetting rain is above ninety percent from the coast to the mountains. That describes the likelihood of rain across the forecast region. The chance of debris flows at an individual burned slope depends on the rainfall there.
  17. Containment gains give residents more protection against fire spread. Rain could still create a different hazard on the burned ground. Forecasters haven't pinned down how much rain will fall, or how intensely, over the individual fire scars.
  18. Fire-suppression repair is planned for Norte's burn scar as Wednesday and Thursday's rain approaches. The work's detailed scope and completion timetable haven't been announced. Neighborhood evacuation orders have ended, while access restrictions on the burned terrain remain a separate part of recovery.

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