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经济 · Ukraine's $32.6B gap

乌克兰逼近2022年式资金危机，俄罗斯数十亿资金仍遭冻结

谢尔希·马尔琴科表示，基辅正逼近2022年式的流动性危机，面临2027年326亿美元缺口和270亿美元武器开支，希望欧盟从欧洲清算银行接管被冻结的俄罗斯资产。

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译自英文原文。

欧洲冻结的俄罗斯资金足以六次填补乌克兰2027年的预算缺口，而乌克兰今年冬天可能仍无力支付非战争开支。⁠15⁠4 这正是乌克兰财政部长谢尔希·马尔琴科（部分报道中拼作Sergii或Serhii Marchenko）在2026年9月4日发表的欧洲新闻台（Euronews）独家专访中向欧洲提出的矛盾。⁠2⁠4 他表示，乌克兰面临自2022年全面战争爆发以来最紧张的预算，并正再次逼近当年几乎令国家崩溃的流动性短缺。⁠2⁠4

他的警告直截了当且务实：如果没有新资金，基辅可能不得不推迟非战争支出，并在他所说的“非常艰难的冬天”到来之前削减开支，军人薪饷、国家运转和居民供暖都在争夺并不存在的资金。⁠2⁠7 基辅目前编制的预算假设战争将持续整个2027年，因此以下所有数字都以再打一整年仗为前提。⁠5

326亿美元2027年未覆盖缺口（假设战争持续至2027年底） 45
约500亿美元年度外部融资需求 45
约1950亿欧元存放于比利时欧洲清算银行的俄罗斯资产 15
900亿欧元消耗速度快于计划的欧盟援助方案 19

乌克兰对外部资金的基本需求约为每年500亿美元。⁠4⁠5 就2027年而言，其中约326亿美元仍无着落，财政部已将这一数字提交给在基辅工作了三天的国际货币基金组织代表团。⁠4⁠5 相关报道中存在一个保留说法：部分报道将同一2027年缺口表述为约326亿欧元而非美元，数字相同，币种不同。⁠8 这一差异对会计核算有影响，但不影响以下结论：明年的融资缺口仍超过年度需求的一半。

在这一缺口之外，还有一个270亿美元的武器问题，现有证据未能完全厘清。⁠11 广播报道将其描述为国防部今年额外的一项举措——约232亿欧元——通过现在就采购、而不是等待可能迟到的援助，提前开展2027年的武器采购。⁠1⁠2 另有报道将270亿美元这一数字归于总理谢尔希·科列茨基，他于2026年9月1日在议会表示，随着战争成本上升，乌克兰国防预算面临270亿美元缺口，并已确定将700亿格里夫纳国内资金全部转用于国防。⁠11 无论是提前采购还是预算缺口，需求的落脚点相同：现在就需要更多武器资金。

欧洲战争资金日渐吃紧

紧迫性源于欧洲为支撑乌克兰度过战争而筹集的紧急资金正在耗尽。⁠19 2025年12月圣诞假期期间批准的900亿欧元欧盟援助方案消耗速度快于计划，一项分析称欧洲的这一宏大方案仅维持了八个月。⁠19⁠12 基辅目前正推动提前拨付原定于2027年的资金。⁠19 正是这一请求重新引发了围绕俄罗斯被冻结的数十亿资金的更大争论。

自2022年以来，我们还没有遇到过这样的情况；当时我们深受流动性短缺之苦。现在，我们离同样的情形已经太近了。

谢尔希·马尔琴科 24

马尔琴科没有向各国政府索要更多现金，而是敦促欧盟财长跳出固有思维，去做他们迄今拒绝做的事。⁠3⁠10 他的提议是将俄罗斯被冻结央行资产的托管权从比利时存管机构欧洲清算银行转移至欧盟本身，并扩大支持这一举措的联盟，在他直接施压的财长之外，把瑞典和波兰也纳入其中。⁠3⁠17 他认为，将托管权转入欧盟管辖范围，将削弱一直导致这笔资金被锁定、无法动用的法律风险。⁠3⁠12

冻结数十亿资金之争

  1. 2022年2月

    全面入侵后，俄罗斯央行储备遭冻结。

    15
  2. 2025年3月底

    约1950亿欧元俄罗斯资产存放于比利时欧洲清算银行。

    15
  3. 2025年12月

    欧盟在圣诞期间批准对乌克兰900亿欧元援助方案。

    19
  4. 2026年9月

    马尔琴科敦促欧盟转移托管权；比利时坚持立场。

    317

涉及的资金数额巨大，各项总数因日期、范围和币种而异。⁠15⁠12 截至2025年3月底，约1950亿欧元俄罗斯资产存放于总部位于布鲁塞尔的证券存管机构欧洲清算银行（Euroclear）。⁠15 欧盟自身统计显示俄罗斯主权资产约为2100亿欧元，而约3000亿美元的俄罗斯央行储备被冻结在西方各账户中。⁠12 比利时一直抵制任何转移举措，官员警告这将打开法律风险的潘多拉魔盒；俄罗斯央行还在莫斯科仲裁法院对欧洲清算银行提起了诉讼，目前仍在审理中。⁠12⁠15 围绕是否动用这笔资金的争斗，已悄然演变为欧洲清算银行自身的偿付能力与信誉危机，也引发了一场关于任何主权国家将储备存放在西方需付出何种代价的现实争论。⁠21

已知

  • 2027年未覆盖缺口约为326亿美元，已向在基辅工作3天的国际货币基金组织代表团通报。 45
  • 2027年预算假设战争持续整个2027年。 5
  • 比利时抵制托管权转移；莫斯科对欧洲清算银行的诉讼尚未了结。 12

未知

  • 欧盟尚未就托管权转移、责任担保或贷款与没收方案的结构达成任何一致工具。
  • 270亿美元究竟是国防部的提前采购还是总理所说的缺口，以及缺口应以欧元还是美元表述。

后续

  • 欧盟财长是否同意由欧盟托管，并在入冬前提前拨付2027年资金。

事实所指向的判断是严峻的，而非技术性的。⁠2⁠19 乌克兰与其说是在要求欧洲创设新的援助，不如说是要求改变已冻结资金的法律归属，因为已承诺的援助在其本应覆盖的冬天到来之前就将耗尽。⁠3⁠19 在欧洲同意一项迄今拒绝的机制之前，基辅能否保障军人薪饷、维持国家运转和居民供暖，取决于一个欧洲看得见、算得清、却暂时不愿用布鲁塞尔那数十亿资金来填补的缺口。⁠2⁠12

来源16

在此处引用的来源中，euronews最先发布，比本报道播出早40小时。
  1. euronews
  2. HeyDay News

15家媒体未注明日期：dailyguardian.euAlpha Briefingcfr.orgEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and ControlGlobal Happeningshromadske

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  1. Ukraine's 2027 budget is short thirty-two-point-six billion dollars before a hard winter. Its finance minister says the country is close to the liquidity crunch that nearly broke it in 2022, and that without new money Kyiv may have to postpone non-war payments and cut spending. The question: will the European Union now do what it has so far refused — unlock Russia's frozen billions to close the gap?
  2. The arithmetic behind the warning is stark. Ukraine's baseline need for outside money runs about fifty billion dollars a year. For next year, the uncovered financing gap is roughly thirty-two-point-six billion dollars — a figure the finance ministry shared with an International Monetary Fund mission that spent three days in Kyiv, and one built on a budget that assumes the war lasts through all of 2027. Every number is framed by another year of fighting.
  3. The IMF team examined the figures and left the shortfall standing. That is the hole Ukraine has to fill while the war grinds on.
  4. The fear is not just arithmetic. Marchenko says Kyiv may have to postpone non-war payments and cut spending before a very difficult winter — with keeping soldiers paid, the state running, and homes heated competing for money that is not there.
  5. So the war effort needs fifty billion dollars a year, and thirty-two-point-six billion of next year's financing is still missing. On top of that, the Defence Ministry is pressing for twenty-seven billion dollars — around twenty-three-point-two billion euros — this year, so Kyiv can buy weapons now rather than wait for aid that may arrive late. And the large European package approved over Christmas is being spent down faster than planned.
  6. There are real disagreements in the numbers. The same 2027 gap also appears quoted in euros rather than dollars — thirty-two-point-six billion either way, just a different currency. The twenty-seven-billion figure is not settled either: it is tied to a Defence Ministry push to buy weapons early, and separately to a defence-budget shortfall. The frozen-asset totals differ by date, scope, and currency. Even the finance minister's name appears in three spellings.
  7. Europe's grand ninety-billion-euro answer to Ukraine's funding crisis lasted only about eight months after it was approved over the Christmas holidays. Kyiv is now asking to pull forward money originally scheduled for 2027 — and that is what has reopened the argument about Russia's frozen money.
  8. Here is where Marchenko wants Europe to go. Rather than ask governments for more money, he is urging EU finance ministers to think outside the box — and to do something they have so far declined: transfer custodianship of Russia's frozen central-bank assets from the Belgian depository Euroclear to the European Union itself.
  9. The money has been frozen since the invasion, and roughly one hundred ninety-five billion euros of it sits inside Euroclear in Belgium. The EU's own accounting puts Russian sovereign assets at about two hundred ten billion euros, and across Western accounts roughly three hundred billion dollars of central-bank reserves are immobilized. Belgium has resisted any move, warning it would open a Pandora's box of legal exposure, and the Bank of Russia has a lawsuit against Euroclear Bank running before the Moscow Arbitration Court. The dispute has quietly become a solvency-and-credibility crisis for Euroclear itself — and a live argument about what it costs any sovereign to park reserves in the West.
  10. He dates the danger to the first year of the full-scale war, when Kyiv ran out of cash. The financing Europe assembled then is running thin now, and with the ninety-billion-euro package draining faster than planned, the gap he is warning about is exactly the one a shift in custody is meant to close.
  11. The European Union has not agreed to any of it. No custody transfer is in place, Belgium is holding the line, and the Moscow court case is unresolved. With a thirty-two-point-six-billion-dollar hole in 2027 and a twenty-seven-billion-dollar arms bill to frontload, Ukraine's ability to keep soldiers paid, keep the state running, and keep homes heated this winter rests on Europe agreeing to a mechanism it has so far refused.

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