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灾害 · 科罗拉多河谷

科罗拉多河谷面临夜间洪水风险，但预警截止时间不明

预警所列的是圣贝纳迪诺县上科罗拉多河谷，而非整个县。夜间地表径流可能威胁低水位交叉路段，但周一的确切结束时间仍未确定。

文字 阅读需 4 分钟 · 26 个来源

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原语言视频

译自英文原文。

洪水风险已经足够明确，值得提前做好准备；但截止时间并不明确。一项洪水监视预警将圣贝纳迪诺县上科罗拉多河谷列为可能在夜间至周一发生山洪的地区，但报道给出了相互矛盾的结束时间。目前没有任何一个时间经独立核实可作为加利福尼亚州该区域预警的有效截止时间。⁠1⁠4

最初报告的预警时段从2026年10月31日星期六晚上11时开始。强降雨可能使地表径流汇入河道、低洼地带和低水位交叉路段。这是对可能发生洪水的预测，并非确认道路或居民区已经被水淹没。⁠1

与时间同样重要的是预警范围。加利福尼亚州预报区域明确列出的是圣贝纳迪诺县—上科罗拉多河谷，位于该县东部边缘。该通知并未确认全县都处于预警范围内。圣贝纳迪诺县其他地方的居民应查看适用于自己所在地的预警，而不要仅凭县名就假定所在社区也在范围内。⁠1

受影响地区名单还列出了哈瓦苏湖和莫哈维堡，以及米德湖和莫哈维湖位于亚利桑那州和内华达州的部分地区。预警范围沿科罗拉多河及邻近湖区分布，并非对周边各县所有地方一概适用的警报。⁠1

强降雨可能导致山洪。

圣贝纳迪诺太阳报引述的拉斯维加斯NWS 1

美国国家气象局拉斯维加斯办公室表示，过量地表径流可能导致河流、溪流、河道及其他低洼或易发洪水地点发生水灾。排水不畅的地区和城市区域也可能积水，低水位交叉路段则可能被淹没。这些都是可能出现的影响，并非对任何特定路段现状的核实。⁠1

洪水监视预警意味着条件有利于洪水发生，人们应做好准备。山洪警告意味着洪水即将发生或正在发生，受威胁地区的人们应立即采取防护行动。山洪可能在几分钟到几小时内形成，包括在正上方没有降雨的地方。天空暂时放晴，并不能证明下游涉水路段会一直安全。⁠1

两个截止时间，均未得到独立确认

《圣贝纳迪诺太阳报》10月31日的报道说，洪水监视预警于星期六上午9:42发布，晚上11时开始，于11月2日星期一凌晨1时结束。文章没有说明时区。一个第三方预警将发布时间标注为太平洋夏令时间，并将周一的结束时间标注为太平洋标准时间。⁠1⁠16

然而，《萨克拉门托蜜蜂报》10月31日的报道说，上午9:45发布的预警涵盖圣贝纳迪诺县—上科罗拉多河谷，并称周一凌晨4时结束。仅凭发布时间较晚，并不能证明加利福尼亚州的预警已延长：现有证据无法确定这一差异究竟反映了预警延长，还是不同预警时段之间不匹配。⁠4⁠18

美国国家气象局（NWS）现有的官方文本中，一段标注为上午9:45发布的预报于太平洋标准时间周一凌晨4时结束，但列出的是亚利桑那州和内华达州不同的预报区域。因此，该文本无法核实加利福尼亚州区域的预警何时结束。由于缺少与加利福尼亚州区域相匹配的完整公告，这里不应将凌晨1时或凌晨4时中的任何一个时间视为已确认的当前截止时间。出行或安排夜间活动前，请查看NWS最新的特定地点预警，不要依赖较早的截止时间。⁠12⁠13

加利福尼亚州的时钟调整使情况更复杂，但并未消除这一矛盾。11月1日星期日凌晨2时，太平洋时区的时钟将拨回至凌晨1时。重复的这一小时发生在星期日。周一凌晨1时只出现一次，且在时钟拨回之后；改用标准时间并不能解释相互矛盾的周一截止时间。⁠5⁠9

眼下最值得关注的是涉水路段

对任何要经过所列区域的人来说，正确做法不是猜测哪个结束时间才对，而是留意后续预报、出发前查看是否发布了警报，并避开被水淹没的道路。预警的指示是：如果发布山洪警告，请做好采取行动的准备。⁠1

6英寸湍急的水流可能会把人冲倒 1
12英寸急流可能冲走大多数车辆 1

这些水深说明的是危险程度，并非安全标准。不要走进洪水中试探水深，也不要因为水看起来很浅就开车穿过。道路被水淹没时请掉头，并遵守路障指示。即使涉水路段看起来尚可通行，流动水体也可能早已具有危险性。⁠1⁠23

远离水位上涨的排水渠和涵洞，也不要把车停在它们旁边。如果水位上涨或山洪警告威胁到低洼地点，请转移到较高处，并遵从地方当局发布的任何疏散指示。被淹空间内的电源插座或电线周围有水也会带来危险；请远离这些被水淹没的区域。被水流困住的人应前往能够到达的最高处，并拨打911。⁠1

现有报道并未证实这一预警时段内发生了洪水、人员受伤、疏散命令或道路封闭。这一区别很重要：预报意味着有必要做好准备，而声称洪水已经发生则超出了现有证据。结束时间尚未明确，意味着应该继续查看预警，并不意味着可以忽视夜间地表径流带来的风险。⁠1⁠4

来源15

在此处引用的来源中，Office of Emergency Services最先发布，比本报道播出早2天。 随后还有4家媒体发布。
  1. Office of Emergency Services
  2. Warning Vector
  3. World Natural Disasters
  4. Global Incident Tracker
  5. San Bernardino Sun
  6. HeyDay News

1篇早期文章作为背景资料参阅。9家媒体未注明日期：timeanddate.comweather.govsacbee.compressenterprise.comchecktimes.comCity of Burbank

按媒体查看所有来源

来自 15 家媒体的 26 个来源· 引用最多的优先

播出原貌
  1. Twelve inches of rushing water can sweep away most vehicles.
  2. A flood watch covers the Upper Colorado River Valley portion of San Bernardino County, where excessive rainfall could flood low-water crossings. The precise end time for the California watch is still unclear.
  3. The California alert specifically names San Bernardino County's Upper Colorado River Valley. The affected-area list also includes Lake Havasu and Fort Mohave, and the Arizona and Nevada sides of Lake Mead and Lake Mohave.
  4. People elsewhere in San Bernardino County shouldn't assume their community has the same alert. The listed California area is the river valley along the county's eastern edge. Check the alert for your own location before making travel or overnight plans.
  5. Runoff can collect in river channels and low-lying ground, including places where rain isn't falling directly overhead. Flash floods can develop within minutes to hours, so conditions at a crossing can change quickly.
  6. The National Weather Service's Las Vegas office says excessive runoff may flood rivers, creeks and streams. Water may also collect in urban areas and places with poor drainage. Low-water crossings are among the locations that could become submerged.
  7. A flood watch means conditions favor flooding, so people should prepare. Flooding hasn't been confirmed for this watch period. A flash flood warning means flooding is imminent or happening, and people in threatened locations need to act immediately.
  8. The initially stated start is eleven p.m. Saturday, October thirty-first, with the risk continuing overnight and into Monday. The uncertainty is how far into Monday the California watch runs. Treat an early end time cautiously until you've checked the latest alert.
  9. The initially stated end time is one a.m. Monday, November second. Four a.m. also appears for the California area. It isn't clear whether that reflects an extension or a mix-up between alert areas. The active California expiration still needs confirmation.
  10. California's clocks also change during the overnight watch period. That affects how local times line up, but it doesn't settle which expiration applies. Keep watching later forecasts and be ready to act if a flash flood warning is issued.
  11. At two a.m. Sunday, November first, Pacific clocks move back to one a.m. The repeated hour happens Sunday. Monday's one a.m. occurs only once, after the rollback. The clock change doesn't explain away the competing expiration times.
  12. If water covers a road, turn around. Don't walk into it to test the depth, and don't drive through it. Obey road barricades. The force of moving water can become dangerous at depths that look deceptively shallow.
  13. Six inches of fast-moving water can knock a person off their feet. As little as twelve inches of rushing water can sweep away most vehicles. Those figures describe the danger; they don't provide a safe depth for entering floodwater.
  14. Stay away from swollen drainage channels and culverts, and avoid parking beside them. If a flash flood warning or rising water threatens a low-lying location, move to higher ground. Follow any evacuation instructions from local authorities.
  15. Water around submerged electrical outlets or cords can also be dangerous. Stay out of those flooded spaces. If moving water traps you, reach the highest accessible point and call nine-one-one.

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