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灾害 · 米申海滩洪水持续报道 · 第 2 篇，共 2 篇

米申海滩的沙堤本应挡住海水。海水却进了住宅。

沙堤决口，海水涌入米申海滩的一户住宅和一家小狗救援组织的院子。市政府宣布将加固沙堤并抽水，但这些措施能否抵御下一次高潮，目前尚未得到证实。

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译自英文原文。

持续报道第 8 天

2 篇报道59 家媒体138 个来源2 个视频

完整报道
  1. 第 1 次更新加州海面已经偏高。下一轮潮汐威胁着伤痕累累的海岸
  2. 第 2 次更新米申海滩的沙堤本应挡住海水。海水却进了住宅。当前位置

自上次报道以来的变化

3 天后

当时

加州海面已经偏高。下一轮潮汐威胁着伤痕累累的海岸

我们报道的内容

  • 针对圣迭戈县和奥兰治县的沿海洪水警报开始生效，持续至10月29日星期四下午1时。

现在

沙堤决口，海水涌入米申海滩的一户住宅和一家小狗救援组织的院子。市政府宣布将加固沙堤并抽水，但这些措施能否抵御下一次高潮，目前尚未得到证实。

现已确认

  • 海水进入了科瓦利克家中和尼珀的小狗救援院子。市政府宣布将加固沙堤并抽水。

这道沙堤原本是为了阻挡海水。2026年10月26日星期一上午，沙堤决口，海水越过人行道，涌入黛比林·科瓦利克位于米申海滩的家中。圣迭戈市的应对措施是加固屏障并部署水泵。目前尚未证实这些工作是否挡住了下一次高潮，保护受影响的房产免遭海水侵入。1

10月25日，我们报道了异常高潮对低洼沿海房产构成威胁。这是一项预报，并非受损报告。周一的决口给出了海水是否会进入住宅的明确答案：海水进入了科瓦利克家中，也淹没了附近一处由米申湾小狗救援组织使用的院子。有关住户情况的详细报道来自10News；《沙漠太阳报》一段标注日期的视频说明则另行指出，10月26日米申海滩发生了洪水。1 78

这一点也关系到此前的另一项评估。NBC 7圣迭戈台报道，截至10月25日星期日上午，圣迭戈县尚未有人报告财产损失。该报道描述的是周一决口发生前的情况，并不与之后发生的事件相矛盾。9 1

科瓦利克从邻居那里得知沙堤决口，海水正涌向她家。10News记者亚斯敏·卢迪陪她走进屋内时，水在脚下晃动。科瓦利克说，米申海滩以前也发生过洪水，但海水此前从未进入她家。“水涨到了这里，而且从推拉玻璃门那里进来，里面到处都是水，”她说。1

她预计踢脚线后面会有问题。“踢脚线后面的石膏板全都……是的，肯定会有一些损坏，”科瓦利克告诉10News。这是她对隐蔽损坏的预期，并非已经完成的评估。损坏程度和维修费用仍不清楚。她眼下最关心的是防止海水再次涌入。1

隔着几栋房子，杰基·尼珀说，她的院子几秒钟内就被水淹满了。她说有一道很小的缝隙让海水渗了进来。尼珀经营米申湾小狗救援组织，因此被淹的户外空间不只是住宅院子：小狗会在那里玩耍，潜在领养者也会来和它们见面。1

今天我们想尽一切办法阻止海水进来，但都失败了。

杰基·尼珀 1

报道证实的是院子被淹，并未证实尼珀家中进水、小狗受伤或动物被疏散。失去可用的户外空间本身就影响重大，无须据此推断动物伤亡或领养安排受阻。“这是它们的前院。它们白天就在这里玩，”尼珀说。1

潮水退去前，居民趟过齐膝深的水出入家中。来自亚利桑那州的访客卡米尔·勒费弗在早晨散步返回时遇上了洪水。她告诉10News，污水到了她膝盖，并说自己随后立即洗了澡。这些描述反映的是出入不便，并非整个街区经过测量且深度一致的洪水。1

克里斯托弗·麦金尼斯说，他在米申海滩住了30年，从未见过这样的洪水。“我们有沙堤什么的，所以我还以为没什么大不了的，”他说。他的惊讶道出了这个社区面临的问题：一道防护屏障让人有了安全感，但海水还是找到了突破口。1

水位测量结果究竟意味着什么

麦金尼斯估计，水位比预报高出约一英尺。美国国家气象局对更广泛的沿海观测描述称，高潮比天文潮汐预报高出1.5至1.7英尺；这些预报值是根据潮汐周期计算的预期水位。他的估计与警报区域的测量值不可混为一谈，而且这两个数字都不是科瓦利克家中积水深度的测量值。1 3

10News援引美国国家气象局的消息称，周一上午拉霍亚的潮位接近8英尺。拉霍亚是位于海岸线更北面的一处地点。潮位是相对于某个基准面测量的，并不意味着米申海滩的地板或人行道上覆盖着8英尺深的水。该报道中取整后的数字所依据的确切峰值、观测时间和基准面尚未得到独立核实。1

“接近8英尺”也无法证明创下纪录。《洛杉矶时报》援引的拉霍亚此前基准值为2015年11月25日的7.81英尺。要确定周一是否超过这一数值，需要基于可比基准面的精确观测值，而不是取整后的描述。因此，拉霍亚的潮位是否实际超过8英尺这一先前的问题仍无定论。7 1

10News称，海水温度升高以及开尔文波——一种可能抬高沿海海平面的广泛海洋扰动——是厄尔尼诺季节水位异常偏高的原因之一。该媒体对当地的展望预计，10月27日星期二和10月28日星期三上午的潮位将超过7英尺。这些是预计峰值，并非最终测量值。此处尚未确认科瓦利克家中或尼珀院子后来再次发生洪水。1

修复行动，不等于已证实的防护效果

据10News报道，市政府表示，工作人员正在加固决口的沙堤并使用水泵。居民认为屏障本应建得更高。这一质疑值得回应，但它并非工程评估：目前没有经核实的尺寸、设计标准或决口后的评估结果，能够说明这道沙堤为何失效，或加高到何种程度才能避免洪水。1

还需要明确区分有关警报持续时间的不同说法。10月27日，KTLA洛杉矶台报道称，橙县和圣迭戈县的沿海洪水警报持续至周二下午1时。美国国家气象局10月27日发布的警报文本则写明，警报持续至太平洋夏令时间10月29日星期四下午1时。周二下午12时53分（太平洋夏令时间）发布的一份后续公告仍保留了周四结束的时间。带日期的气象局文本支持周四结束的安排，而非KTLA所称的周二结束。2 3 132 136

周二较早发布的一则警报，其元数据另列出了当天太平洋夏令时间下午2时30分到期，尽管警报文本写明警报持续至周四。该元数据时间不应取代公告所述的危险警报结束时间。较晚发布且带日期的公告确认了截至发布时的安排；我们尚未独立确认警报当时的实时状态。警报按计划结束，也不意味着某处房产届时必然安全。3 132 136

已知

  • 海水进入了科瓦利克家中和尼珀的小狗救援院子。市政府宣布将加固沙堤并抽水。 1

未知

  • 目前尚未核实工程是否完工、下次高潮时的防护效果、最终损失金额，以及米申海滩特定的受伤或流离失所人数。

后续

  • 实际检验是水位再次上涨时，加固后的屏障能否保护这些房产。

警报指出，低洼住宅、企业和部分关键基础设施还可能面临风险，也可能发生道路封闭和海岸侵蚀。这些是潜在的后续影响，并非已经核实的米申海滩受损清单。官员敦促人们远离被淹区域，并在水边保持谨慎。驾驶员不应绕过路障，也不应驶入深度不明的积水。3 11

对受影响的住户来说，宣布修复只是问题得到解答的开始。周一的情况表明，海水能够越过屏障并进入居住空间。居民仍需知道的是，改进后的防护设施能否经受住下一次高潮。

播出原貌 15 行
  1. Seawater broke through a sand berm and flooded a Mission Beach home.
  2. On October 25, we reported that exceptionally high tides threatened low-lying coastal property. Now water has entered a home and a puppy rescue's yard. Can the city's reinforcement and pumping protect those properties from the next high tides?
  3. The berm gave way Monday morning, October 26, in San Diego's Mission Beach. Seawater crossed the sidewalk and reached front doors. The nearby tide figure comes from La Jolla, a separate location farther north along the coast.
  4. Neighbors called Debbilyn Kovalik to tell her the barrier had broken and water was rushing toward her home. Inside, water sloshed underfoot. She said Mission Beach had flooded before, but the water had never previously reached inside her house. She described it coming through the sliding glass door and spreading all the way through.
  5. Kovalik expected damage behind the baseboards. “All the drywall behind the baseboards. Yeah, there's going to be some damage,” she said. The full extent and repair cost aren't known yet. Her immediate concern was keeping the water from getting inside again.
  6. A couple of houses away, Jackie Nipper said her yard filled within seconds. She described a tiny gap that let water through. “Every effort that we tried to make to keep it from coming in today failed,” she said. Nipper runs Mission Bay Puppy Rescue. Puppies play in that yard, and prospective adopters meet them there.
  7. Residents waded through knee-deep water to enter and leave homes before the tide receded. Camille LeFever, visiting from Arizona, encountered that water returning from a morning beach walk. She said the muck reached her knees and she showered immediately afterward.
  8. Christopher McGinnis said he'd lived in Mission Beach for 30 years and had never seen flooding like it. He'd expected the berms to provide protection. He estimated the water was about a foot above prediction. That was his estimate. The weather service's wider coastal measurements showed an even larger departure from the expected tide.
  9. High tides across the warning area ran 1.5 to 1.7 feet above astronomical predictions, the levels expected from tidal cycles. La Jolla's Monday tide was reported as nearly eight feet. Those figures describe coastal water levels relative to a reference, rather than depth inside homes.
  10. The exact La Jolla peak still isn't known, so the rounded reading can't settle whether it exceeded eight feet or the earlier record. Warmer ocean water and a Kelvin wave, a broad ocean disturbance that can raise coastal sea levels, contributed to the unusually elevated water during this El Niño season.
  11. The local forecast called for morning tides above seven feet on Tuesday, October 27, and Wednesday, October 28. Those were expected peaks. The warning covered coastal areas of San Diego and Orange counties, and its announced schedule extended beyond Wednesday's forecast high tide. Conflicting end times could leave residents with very different expectations.
  12. The competing end times were Tuesday at one and Thursday at one. The warning text set Thursday, October 29, at one p.m. as the hazard's scheduled end. A later Tuesday bulletin retained that Thursday schedule. We haven't confirmed the warning's live status.
  13. An earlier alert's metadata also listed Tuesday at two-thirty p.m., but the warning text continued through Thursday. That metadata time shouldn't replace the announced hazard end. And the scheduled end doesn't promise that individual properties will be safe. For residents, the practical concern is what the barrier can withstand when the water rises again.
  14. The city said crews were reinforcing the breached berm and using pumps. Residents wanted a higher barrier, but no engineering assessment has explained why it failed. Whether that work protected these properties at the next high tide still hasn't been confirmed.
  15. Further high tides could inundate low-lying property and infrastructure, close roads and erode the shoreline. Officials urged people to avoid flooded areas and use caution near the water. Drivers shouldn't go around barricades or enter water of unknown depth. Floodwater can conceal road hazards, and its depth can be deceptive.

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