政治 · 联盟谈判

摩洛哥首位女性政府首相手握97席,还需198席

法蒂玛·宰赫拉·曼苏里获得了国王的授权和本党的支持,可以展开谈判。截至10月5日,她还没有联盟、没有内阁,也没有施政纲领。

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译自英文原文。

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1 篇报道45 家媒体73 个来源1 个视频

  1. 第 1 次更新摩洛哥首位女性政府首相手握97席,还需198席当前位置

摩洛哥众议院共有395个席位,国王刚刚请其出面组阁的这位女性所在政党占97席,约占议席总数的24.6%。与她的头衔相比,这个数字更能说明未来几周的局面。9

2026年9月29日,穆罕默德六世国王在拉巴特王宫接见了法蒂玛·宰赫拉·曼苏里(Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri),任命她为政府首相,并责成她组建新内阁。2她是首位出任这一职务的女性。7她同时是马拉喀什市长,也是真实与现代党(PAM)集体领导层的协调人;该党在9月23日的选举中位居第一。49内政部于9月25日确认,最终结果与初步结果完全一致。5

关键事实

  1. 97真实与现代党席位,位居第一,结果未变 95
  2. 101距198席多数基准还差的席位 96
  3. 163真实与现代党加上第二名的全国独立人士联盟:仍差35席 96

101和163是我们自己计算的数字,不是任何一方的谈判要求。395席的议会规模和198席的基准来自选举和联盟相关报道。我们未能获得宪法中信任投票规则的文本,因此不把198呈现为对该规则的引述。15全国独立人士联盟(RNI)以66席位列第二。9即便真实与现代党与全国独立人士联盟结盟,席位仍远远不足,而且尚未宣布任何此类联盟。

关于“多数”一词的更正

我们9月30日的报道称,真实与现代党赢得了压倒性的议会多数。席位数并不支持这一说法。9月25日的一则报道称该党将不得不寻求组建联盟,这一判断是正确的。8任命源于位居第一,而不是掌控议会。一篇关于2011年宪法第47条的评论称,政府首相从在众议院选举中获得第一的政党中,依据其选举结果任命。42我们未能获得宪法的正式文本,因此这一点依据的是评论文章。位居第一使政党获得首次组阁的机会,但并不等于赢得信任投票。

有会谈,无协议

9月30日,曼苏里开始分别与全国独立人士联盟、独立党、人民运动党、人民力量社会主义联盟(USFP)和进步与社会主义党(PPS)协商。全国独立人士联盟获得了第一场会面。36报道中提到的领导人有穆罕默德·乌兹因、德里斯·拉希加尔和纳比勒·本阿卜杜拉。3410月1日,她接着会见了宪政联盟和民主与社会运动,两党分别由穆罕默德·朱达尔和阿卜杜萨马德·阿尔尚领导。33

正义与发展党(PJD)最能说明一次会面能证明的东西有多少。9月30日,《摩洛哥世界新闻》报道称,该党领导人阿卜杜勒伊拉·本基兰已同意与她会面,同时让其政党置身于任何联盟之外。37次日,同一媒体报道称他已拒绝。33报道由预期中的会面变成了拒绝。我们没有发现已完成的会面,也没有新的日期。无论如何,都不能把正义与发展党视为合作伙伴。

从投票到授权

  1. 9月23日 周三

    举行立法选举。

    5
  2. 9月25日 周五

    内政部确认最终结果与初步结果一致。

    5
  3. 9月29日 周二

    穆罕默德六世国王任命曼苏里为政府首相,并责成她组建政府。

    2
  4. 9月30日 周三

    开始分别与全国独立人士联盟、独立党、人民运动党、人民力量社会主义联盟和进步与社会主义党会谈。

    34
  5. 10月1日 周四

    与宪政联盟和民主与社会运动会谈;据报道,正义与发展党的本基兰拒绝会面。

    33
  6. 10月3日 周六

    真实与现代党全国委员会授予她谈判组建下一届执政多数派的全权。

    32

10月3日的决定意义重大。这意味着她在谈判时无需就每一点都回到本党请示批准。但这仍只是内部授权,并非与任何其他方达成的协议。32促成本报道的法新社(FRANCE 24)报道称,她将先在真实与现代党内部协商,再与其他政治力量协商,并尽快向国王提交内阁提名方案。1这一说法没有给出任何期限。我们未能获得她讲话的完整原文,因此不将其视为逐字引述。我们没有发现部长名单、已达成一致的施政纲领,也没有发现已确定日期的下一轮会谈。

新政府将接手什么

法新社指出,普遍的失业、不断上升的生活成本和持续存在的不平等,是新政府面临的压力。1相关数字需谨慎对待。摩洛哥统计机构高等计划专员公署(HCP)已改用新的劳动力调查EMO2026。二手报道称,2026年第二季度全国严格口径失业率为9.5%,第一季度为10.8%。2429我们看到的HCP说明确认了该调查和相关季度,但其摘录未显示数据表。该调查改变了概念和方法,HCP也已按新方法重新计算了2017至2025年的指标。58因此,与旧的未经调整数据比较并不可靠。10月1日一篇分析中流传的另一个22.5%的数字,是把失业者、就业不足者和劳动力之外人口合并计算的结果,并不是失业率。27我们未能获得青年和女性的确切失业率,不过有报道指出这两个群体承受的压力尤为突出。

在物价方面,HCP公布的2026年8月指数环比上涨0.8%,其中食品上涨0.9%,非食品上涨0.7%。核心通胀环比上涨0.2%,同比上涨0.1%。57这0.1%是核心通胀指标,不是总体通胀,也不是食品通胀,而且我们看到的摘录都没有给出这两者的年度数字。我们无法确定发布日期,因此不能说这些数据在10月5日截稿前已经公开。

以上都不是对她将如何行事的定论。为分配部长职位而组成的联盟,与围绕施政纲领组成的联盟会大不相同。截至截稿时,我们无从判断会是哪一种。

已知

  • 2026年9月29日,穆罕默德六世国王任命曼苏里为政府首相,并责成她组建政府。 2
  • 真实与现代党赢得97席,全国独立人士联盟(RNI)赢得66席;最终结果与初步结果没有变化。 95
  • 10月3日,真实与现代党全国委员会授予她谈判组建下一届多数派的全权。 32
  • 她已与全国独立人士联盟、独立党、人民运动党、人民力量社会主义联盟(USFP)、进步与社会主义党(PPS)、宪政联盟(UC)和民主与社会运动(MDS)会面;据报道,本基兰领导的正义与发展党(PJD)拒绝会面。 3433

未知

  • 究竟哪些政党会真正加入,以及条件是什么。
  • 正义与发展党的会面是否会举行,以及独立党的席位总数是多少。二手表格中的65席未获证实。
  • 关于信任投票和内阁提名程序的确切宪法条文。

后续

  • 任何已公布的联盟伙伴,或已确定日期的下一轮磋商。
  • 提交给国王的部长名单,以及政府施政纲领。
播出原貌 15 行
  1. King Mohammed VI appointed Morocco’s first woman Head of Government.
  2. Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri must build a governing majority from a party holding just 97 of 395 parliamentary seats. The negotiations will shape a government facing unemployment, household costs and persistent inequalities.
  3. How far has she moved from a historic appointment toward an agreed government?
  4. The appointment gave El Mansouri a formation mandate, not a completed cabinet. The King appointed her at the Royal Palace in Rabat on September 29, 2026, and tasked her with forming the government. October 2 was not another appointment date.
  5. El Mansouri’s party needs another 101 seats to reach the 198-seat majority benchmark. Her Authenticity and Modernity Party, known as PAM, finished first, but its 97 seats represent approximately 24.6 percent of the House of Representatives. That is nearly a quarter of the chamber, not a sweeping parliamentary majority. The election took place on September 23. Preliminary results appeared on September 24, and the Interior Ministry confirmed on September 25 that the final results were unchanged. The confirmation was published on September 26. Winning the largest bloc gives PAM the lead in government formation; it does not let PAM govern alone.
  6. The second-place party cannot close that gap by itself. The National Rally of Independents, or RNI, won 66 seats. Combined with PAM, that would make 163, still 35 short of 198. Those totals are arithmetic, not an announced alliance or a negotiating demand. A meeting between the two parties does not establish that either has committed to govern with the other. Istiqlal’s suggested tally of 65 has not been independently confirmed in the official election material, so it cannot provide a verified basis for further coalition calculations.
  7. PAM’s National Council gave El Mansouri full authority to negotiate the next governing majority on October 3. That is a concrete advance within her own party, not an agreement with another party. Separate consultations began on September 30 with RNI, Istiqlal, the Popular Movement, the Socialist Union of Popular Forces, known as USFP, and the Party of Progress and Socialism, known as PPS. RNI received the first meeting; Istiqlal followed as the second major consultation. The participating leaders included Mohamed Ouzzine of the Popular Movement, Driss Lachgar of USFP and Nabil Benabdallah of PPS. On October 1, talks continued with the Constitutional Union, or UC, led by Mohamed Joudar, and the Democratic and Social Movement, or MDS, led by Abdessamad Archane. These contacts establish neither acceptance of ministries nor agreement on policies or coalition membership.
  8. Abdelilah Benkirane ruled out bringing his Justice and Development Party, or PJD, into the coalition. The meeting account also changed: an agreement to meet on September 30 was followed by a refusal on October 1. The anticipated meeting had been scheduled at PAM headquarters after the UC and MDS consultations. A disagreement over the setting was mentioned, but no completed meeting or rescheduled date is established. Even the earlier agreement to meet never meant an agreement to join the government. PJD cannot be counted as a governing partner.
  9. El Mansouri already has experience running a city and holding a national ministry. She was 50 at the appointment and is a lawyer by training. She served as Marrakech’s first woman mayor from 2009 to 2015 and returned to the mayoralty in 2021. During 2021–2026, she served under Aziz Akhannouch as the minister responsible for territorial planning, urban planning, housing and city policy. She also coordinates PAM’s collegial leadership. Her exact birth date and the precise dates of her ministerial and party-leadership appointments have not been independently confirmed in official institutional records.
  10. PAM’s first-place finish explains the link between the election and the royal appointment. The appointment clause of Article 47 of the 2011 Constitution connects selection of the Head of Government to the party that came first in the House election, on the basis of its results. The appointment framework also involves the King appointing ministers on the Head of Government’s proposal. But the complete operative passages of Articles 47 and 88 have not been independently verified here. The 198-seat coalition benchmark should not be presented as an authenticated quotation of the constitutional confidence-vote rule. Nor does El Mansouri’s appointment establish that a completed cabinet has assumed office.
  11. National strict unemployment stood at 9.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 10.8 percent in the first quarter. The 10.8 percent figure is not a newer October measurement. These numbers belong to the new EMO2026 labour-force survey, which replaced the earlier ENE framework and introduced conceptual and methodological changes. Provisional quarterly indicators for 2017–2025 have also been retrospectively recalculated. Comparisons with older, unrecalculated statistics therefore need caution; the detailed comparability rules and full unemployment definition have not been independently verified. Young people aged 15 to 24 and women face particular employment pressure, but their exact rates are not established here. A separate 22.5 percent measure combines unemployment, underemployment and people outside the labour market within an expanded labour-force measure. Its full definition and denominator are unavailable. It is not the strict unemployment rate.
  12. Food prices rose 0.9 percent in August compared with the previous month. Overall consumer prices increased 0.8 percent, while non-food prices increased 0.7 percent. These are August monthly measurements, not annual rates and not proof of what prices did on the appointment day. Underlying inflation rose 0.2 percent monthly and 0.1 percent annually. That annual 0.1 percent cannot be substituted for annual headline inflation or annual food inflation; neither annual rate is established here. The August release date is also unconfirmed, so its availability before the October 5 cutoff cannot be established. Earlier April price figures lack adequately verified comparison bases and cannot establish a reliable current comparison.
  13. El Mansouri has authority to negotiate, but no agreed government is established by October 5. That answers the immediate question: consultations and an internal party mandate are confirmed advances; agreed partners, a finalized cabinet, a submitted ministerial lineup and a common government programme remain unconfirmed.
  14. She intended to consult within PAM, then other political groups, and submit a proposed lineup to the King as soon as possible. The precise wording and context of those intentions have not been independently verified. They establish neither a completed submission nor a calendar deadline.
  15. No verified programme yet establishes which employment, affordability or inequality measures El Mansouri and her eventual partners will adopt. There is no confirmed next meeting date, cabinet-submission deadline or government-announcement date.

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