冲突 · 英国皇家空军费尔福德基地持续报道 · 第 2 篇，共 2 篇

费尔福德的轰炸机已返航。7名嫌疑人均已获保释。所谓阴谋仍未得到证实。

7名男子均获警方保释，据报道尚未有人被起诉。12架B-1B轰炸机已返回美国。两者之间的关联，以及是否存在伊朗无人机阴谋，仍未有公开披露的证据证实。

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持续报道第 11 天

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完整报道
  • 暂无标注日期的事件
  1. 第 1 次更新是轮换还是威胁?特朗普的话让费尔福德事件浮出水面
  2. 第 2 次更新费尔福德的轰炸机已返航。7名嫌疑人均已获保释。所谓阴谋仍未得到证实。当前位置

自上次报道以来的变化

4 天后

当时

是轮换还是威胁?特朗普的话让费尔福德事件浮出水面

我们当时说尚无定论的问题

  1. 车辆检查结果、确切数量、采取应对行动的原因以及与英国皇家空军费尔福德基地的任何关联，均未得到证实。

    尚无定论

    三辆货车、车内有汽油但没有爆炸装置，以及7人被捕，这些情况已经确定。相关活动的目的及其与预谋袭击之间的联系仍未厘清。 418

  2. 任何疑似装置是否可用、预定目标是什么，或是否有外国政府参与。

    尚无定论

    搜查未发现简易爆炸装置，也没有发现存在可用装置的证据。预定目标以及是否有外国政府指使，仍未获公开证实。 2433

  3. 新的威胁是什么，以及是否与9月27日的逮捕行动有关。

    尚无定论

    目前的报道称可能存在伊朗无人机威胁，但其是否迫在眉睫，以及是否与9月27日的逮捕行动有关，均未获公开证实。 615

  4. 是否有证据支持伯纳姆对伊朗的判断，或特朗普声称知道威胁由谁发出。

    尚无定论

    这里没有披露任何经核实的证据，可以证实伯纳姆的归因或特朗普关于知晓责任人的说法。 7028

  5. 这些男子为何在基地附近，以及汽油有何用途。

    尚无定论

    这些男子各自的角色以及汽油的用途仍未得到解释。

  6. 警方是否会更新情况或作出起诉决定，以及伯纳姆承诺的进一步声明。

    尚无定论

    警方新增第7名嫌疑人的逮捕，并宣布其获警方保释；截至10月9日，据报道尚未有人被起诉。伯纳姆承诺进一步发表声明，但这里没有确定的期限；也没有经核实、包含新证据的声明。 3072

  7. 轰炸机是否返航，以及美国航母部署会如何影响整体情况。

    尚无定论

    截至10月9日，没有经核实的轰炸机返航记录。此前讨论过的航母部署仍未得到证实，也无法据此厘清费尔福德的威胁评估。

现在

7名男子均获警方保释，据报道尚未有人被起诉。12架B-1B轰炸机已返回美国。两者之间的关联，以及是否存在伊朗无人机阴谋，仍未有公开披露的证据证实。

12架美国轰炸机已经返航。围绕英国皇家空军费尔福德基地的调查中，7名被捕男子目前均获警方保释；据NPR 10月9日的报道，尚未有人被起诉。军事层面的后果是确实发生了；据称在背后的伊朗行动，尚未得到公开证实。280 2

在10月6日的节目中，我们报道了6人被捕、轰炸机撤离以及官方说法相互矛盾。此后，警方又逮捕第7名男子，并宣布将其释放。报道还给出了更详尽的描述，称可能存在无人机威胁——但仍未提供将这一情景与嫌疑人联系起来所需的公开证据。

关键事实

  1. 7男子被捕；目前据报道均已获保释 3072
  2. 12B-1B轰炸机于10月4日离开 280
  3. 3货车内有汽油，而非爆炸装置 4330

最新被捕的嫌疑人是一名22岁的英国公民，于10月6日在伦敦市中心威斯敏斯特被捕，警方怀疑他依据《2006年反恐法》第5条准备实施恐怖主义行为。警方搜查了附近场所。反恐警务部门发布的更新标题注明10月8日上午11:30，宣布他获警方保释；这一时间戳并不能确定实际批准保释的具体时间。18 19 307

此前6名嫌疑人已经获保释。NPR在10月9日的报道仍称7人均已获保释，并表示尚未有人被起诉；这取代了NBC在10月6日早些时候刊载的6人被捕说法。逮捕不等于起诉；获保释既不能证明有罪，也不能证明无罪。警方表示调查仍在进行，有多条调查线索，并仍在查明动机。1 2 18 15

这些货车究竟能说明什么

调查始于9月27日，当天有人报告称在格洛斯特郡惠尔福德的费尔福德基地附近发现可疑货车。发生重大事件应对行动期间，居民被疏散。5名来自伦敦、年龄在23–25岁之间的英国男子因涉嫌犯有爆炸物相关罪行及准备实施恐怖主义行为而被捕，随后于9月28日获保释。这些是最初发生的事件，并非新近发现的袭击。217 243

正如我们9月30日报道的那样，检查发现了汽油，但没有发现简易爆炸装置。警方此前的调查结果也称，伦敦的搜查未发现存在可用装置的证据。更全面的报道提到，一名嫌疑人在农民后来报警前已经致电警方：称农民拉响了警报，并不能证明她是第一个报案的人。243 244 86

汽油的用途仍未得到解释。汽油可以用作助燃剂，但发现汽油并不能证明有人计划纵火、设定了目标或制造炸弹。同样，未发现爆炸物也不能证明犯罪没有发生——也不能确定是否涉及无人机。

第6名男子被描述为英伊双重国籍人士，于10月1日在威斯敏斯特被捕，并据报道在10月3日前已获保释。BBC 10月1日的报道称其年龄为27岁；《每日电讯报》当天的报道称为25岁，两家媒体10月3日的报道也均称其为25岁。检索到的一段10月1日警方声明摘录也明确写着25岁，不过用于辨认身份的句子并不完整。没有更正记录解释这一差异。62 333 332 310 331

NPR在10月9日的讨论中称，嫌疑人包括5名英国公民和2名英伊双重国籍人士。其他现有描述中，只有第6名嫌疑人被明确称为英伊双重国籍人士，第7名则被称为英国人。英国国籍并不排除其同时拥有另一国国籍，但这里没有确认另有一名双重国籍人士。7人被捕这一事实已经确定；具体国籍构成则尚未确定。国籍本身并不能证明有伊朗方面指使。2 310 18

飞机转场了；说法却未明朗

12架B-1B“枪骑兵”轰炸机于10月4日陆续离开。费尔福德此前曾作为前沿作战基地，供参与对伊朗冲突的飞机使用。五角大楼证实，这些飞机已返回美国本土基地。《卫报》10月5日报道至少有10架飞机离开，那是对同一次撤离的较早报道，并非应加到12架之外的另一批飞机。280 314 22

唐纳德·特朗普10月5日在白宫外表示，这些飞机“不是偶然飞走的”，并提到“有一些威胁”。他还说：“所以我们把它们稍微调动了一下。没有调很远。”与已确认的跨大西洋返航相比，这种说法显得不太吻合；那并非只是把飞机短距离调往英国另一处机场。336 28 340 314

副总统JD·万斯称，此举是“出于充分谨慎”。国务卿马可·鲁比奥则强调，这是例行轮换和资源重新调配，并拒绝将重新部署直接与费尔福德事件挂钩。这一限定的含义比证明两者毫无关联更窄。由威胁引发的预防措施与例行轮换这两种解释仍未得到协调。317 339 20

有关情报的报道也各不相同。NPR于10月7日报道，一名未具名美国官员称存在可信的伊朗威胁，可能涉及无人机。NBC在10月6日的报道援引两名官员称，可能发生的伊朗无人机袭击是撤离原因之一；第三名官员则称，袭击是否迫在眉睫尚不明确。PBS于10月6日援引一名官员称，在此前逮捕行动之前，曾有可能即将发生袭击的情况。相关说法对时机和紧迫性的描述尚未得到协调。6 15 9

更详细的情景描述称，轰炸机和美国人员可能是目标，关注的威胁之一包括多架无人机或蜂群式袭击。与2025年6月乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯轰炸机基地的对比，解释了官员担忧的脆弱性；但这并不能证明英格兰已部署了相当的行动。13 41 5

第四频道10月6日的一则情报报道，将被捕男子描述为不知情的帮凶，受一名据称与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队有关联的特工指使。报道还称，一名特工尚未落网，搜捕仍在继续，袭击可能从多个方向展开。这些都是未经证实的描述，并非警方对这些男子是否知情、所起作用或责任的认定。14

10月8日，第四频道的马克·厄本表示，费尔福德没有发现无人机证据，也无法准确判断相关情报的可信度和可靠性。前国家安全顾问马克·莱尔·格兰特谨慎地评估称，伊朗参与的线索或许可以追查。两人的评估都没有提供公开证实的行动计划，也没有证明车辆与此存在实物关联。3

安迪·伯纳姆市长9月30日声称有“强有力迹象”表明伊朗参与其中，但这里没有公开提供证据支持这一说法。特朗普后来声称华盛顿知道是谁发出了威胁，这并不能独立证实上述说法。伊朗否认参与。70 28 2

带来实际行动后果的预防措施

英国政府表示费尔福德是安全的。WRAL在10月6日的报道中称，轰炸机离开后仍有美国人员留守；目前没有经确认的后续人员清单。美国欧洲司令部拒绝讨论情报，并表示将继续评估威胁。飞机撤离并不能证明基地已被弃用，也不能证明威胁已经消失。272 17 18

退役将军查尔斯·沃尔德认为撤离是明智之举，并表示轰炸机可以从美国执行任务。哈德逊研究所分析师蒂莫西·沃尔顿评估称，这有利于进行更重要的维护，但会降低对伊朗持续实施打击的潜在能力。这些是行动层面的评估，并非经测量得出的损失：实际出动架次的减少、额外成本或延误均未量化。10 315

指挥官在情报尚未达到法庭证据标准之前采取预防措施，是合理的。但这并不能让预防措施变成所谓阴谋的证据。费尔福德事件尚未厘清的核心，是一项后果重大的军事决策，与公开说明其依据之间存在落差。

播出原貌 31 行
  1. On October 6 we reported vans containing petrol. Now seven men are on bail.
  2. The United States has sent home all twelve bombers from the same base, while the police investigation continues without announced charges. What threat drove that military decision, and how does it connect to the men arrested near RAF Fairford?
  3. Police arrested the seventh suspect in Westminster, central London. He's a twenty-two-year-old British national, detained on October 6 on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. Officers also searched premises in the area.
  4. The arrest count rose from six to seven. Police announced the latest man's release on October 8, and all seven are now on bail. No charges have been announced through October 9.
  5. Police arrested the latest man under the Terrorism Act's provision covering preparation of terrorist acts. Bail leaves the men under investigation. It doesn't settle guilt or clear them. Police are still pursuing multiple lines of inquiry and determining motive.
  6. Three suspicious vans brought a major incident response to Whelford on September 27. Police evacuated residents near the base. Five British men from London, aged twenty-three to twenty-five, were arrested at the scene.
  7. Officers suspected explosives offences and preparation of a terrorist act. The five men were bailed on September 28. One suspect had called police before a farmer's later call about the vans. Nobody has explained what prompted the suspect's call.
  8. Police recovered petrol from the three vans, but found no improvised explosive devices. Earlier London searches also found no evidence of a viable device. Police haven't explained what the petrol was intended for.
  9. Petrol can fuel a fire, but the men’s purpose remains unknown. The explosives searches also leave the separate drone question open. Police included possible foreign-state involvement among the lines of inquiry.
  10. The sixth suspect, described as a UK-Iranian dual national, was arrested in Westminster on October 1 and bailed by October 3. The seventh arrest followed on October 6. October 8 marks the announcement of his release.
  11. Police's October 1 identification gives the sixth man's age as twenty-five. An earlier description gave twenty-seven. Nobody has explained that discrepancy, which concerns the same suspect.
  12. The exact nationality breakdown is also unsettled. A later description counted two British-Iranian dual nationals, but only the sixth suspect has been specifically identified that way. Describing the others as British doesn't settle whether they hold another nationality. Nationality alone tells us nothing about who directed them.
  13. All twelve American B-1B Lancer bombers left RAF Fairford over the course of October 4. They'd used the base for operations in the conflict with Iran. The Pentagon confirmed their return to home stations in the United States.
  14. Earlier accounts counted at least ten departures. The fuller count is twelve aircraft in that same withdrawal. The return to America had already happened by October 6.
  15. Donald Trump said, “So we moved them around a little bit. Not very far”. The Pentagon confirmed a transatlantic return to American home stations. All twelve B-1B bombers left the British base.
  16. Trump said the bombers “didn’t fly out by accident” and cited “some threats”. Speaking outside the White House on October 5, he said Washington knew who made the threat. He linked it to Iran without identifying the people responsible.
  17. JD Vance called the withdrawal “out of an abundance of caution” to protect American personnel. Marco Rubio emphasized regular rotations and resource movements. He declined to tie the redeployment directly to the earlier Fairford incident.
  18. Vance also invoked a claim that Iran had engaged in terrorism for forty-nine years as his argument for precaution. Rubio's refusal to make a direct link leaves room for a connection. The officials haven't reconciled their explanations.
  19. Prime Minister Andy Burnham had said on September 30 there were “strong indications” Iran played a part. He didn't publicly supply the supporting evidence. Iran denied involvement. Trump's later allegation also came without disclosed evidence establishing responsibility.
  20. A U.S. official described a credible Iranian threat potentially involving drones. Two other American officials said a possible drone attack partly informed the withdrawal. The more detailed scenario involved multiple drones targeting bombers and potentially American personnel.
  21. The urgency differs across those descriptions. One account described a possible imminent attack before the earlier arrests. Another official said imminence was unclear, and described a precaution because the bombers could operate elsewhere. The underlying intelligence hasn't been made public.
  22. The multiple-drone scenario drew comparisons with Ukraine's June 2025 attack on Russian bomber bases. That comparison explains the vulnerability officials feared. No physical drone evidence has been publicly shown connecting such an operation to the three Whelford vans.
  23. A more elaborate intelligence account described the arrested men as unwitting accomplices directed by an alleged agent linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard. It said that agent hadn't been caught and a manhunt was continuing. Police haven't confirmed that account.
  24. That scenario envisaged drone attacks from multiple directions, possibly followed by further plots. The alleged agent's identity and relationship to the seven men remain unknown. Describing the men as unwitting leaves their actual knowledge and intentions unresolved.
  25. Former national security adviser Mark Lyall Grant tentatively assessed that Iranian involvement appeared potentially traceable. By October 8, the newer assessment still described uncertainty over the intelligence's reliability. No public evidence has proved Iranian direction or an operational drone plan.
  26. The bombers' destination is clear. The connection between their withdrawal, the vans and any Iranian-directed activity remains unresolved. Police have added an arrest and released the seventh man, without publicly explaining the motive or each suspect's role.
  27. The British government said Fairford was safe. American personnel remained at the base in the October 6 account, after the bombers left. U.S. European Command said it would keep assessing threats and take appropriate measures to protect personnel and bases.
  28. The command declined to discuss intelligence and said American forces remained at their highest state of readiness. Police haven't announced a next court date or bail-return date. No bomber return to Fairford has been confirmed through the October 9 cutoff.
  29. Retired General Charles Wald considered withdrawal a sensible precaution and said the bombers could fly from America when needed. RUSI analyst Christoph Bergs assessed that redeployment reduced the ability to increase combat flights against Iran quickly.
  30. The Pentagon has said B-1, B-2 and B-52 crews can conduct global precision strikes from the continental United States. Wald's suggestion that the suspicious activity might have been a dry run was his speculation about the men's intent.
  31. Hudson Institute analyst Timothy Walton assessed that withdrawal allowed more significant maintenance, but reduced potential sustained strike capacity against Iran. Those are operational assessments. Nobody has quantified an actual loss of flights, an extra cost or a delay.

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