冲突 · 也门攻势

也门政府发起攻势,塔伊兹一带一天内死亡70多人

也门获沙特支持的政府称,将收复所有胡塞武装控制的地区。胡塞武装宣称袭击了沙特阿美,而利雅得的联军称这一说法具有误导性。几乎所有说法都未经证实,布伦特原油价格在102美元附近。

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1 篇报道48 家媒体41 个来源2 个视频

  1. 第 1 次更新也门政府发起攻势,塔伊兹一带一天内死亡70多人当前位置

据法新社援引的消息人士称,单日之内,塔伊兹及其周边有70多人死亡。如果这一数字属实,平均每小时约有三人死亡。实际情况的分布想必更不均匀。目前没有平民与战斗人员的分类数据,也没有对该数字的独立核实。2

这一数字之下,是10月4日和5日搅动市场的头条新闻。也门获国际承认、由沙特支持的政府宣布发起行动,收复伊朗支持的胡塞武装控制的所有领土。胡塞武装称,已用导弹和无人机袭击沙特阿美的多处设施。布伦特原油价格徘徊在102美元附近。双方都在宣称自己有所斩获,但目前都拿不出证据。能够查证的只有两件事:油价,以及有人正在死去。

关键事实

  1. 70多人据报一天内在塔伊兹一带死亡人数 2
  2. 约102美元10月5日布伦特原油每桶价格,小幅走低 1522
  3. 1亿七国集团宣布释放的桶数 1

政府称自己在做什么

公告于10月4日(周日)发布。路透社经由Al-Monitor报道了此事,《国家报》(The National)则称这是由领导总统领导委员会的拉沙德·阿利米(Rashad al-Alimi)发布的。公告称,政府军已打击萨那和萨达的胡塞武装目标。6 5 最初的报道没有提供伤亡或领土方面的细节。

到周一,也门官员开始宣称夺取了地盘。美联社援引他们的话说,盟军已收复曼德海峡周边的几处关键地区,包括海峡以北不远处的杜巴卜镇。13 路透社援引军方和政府消息人士的话补充说,部队已夺取海峡沿线的关键阵地,并控制了杜巴卜地区的大部分。31 英国广播公司报道称,亲政府部队说他们已“控制”海峡。24 印度新德里电视台(NDTV)的一篇二手报道提到了1000多次打击、沙特空中掩护以及美国的情报和策划协助。该报道没有说明打击由谁实施,我们查阅的其他媒体也没有重复这一说法。27

这些是官方说法,是在攻势开始的最初几个小时内作出的。我们查阅的消息来源,没有显示有对所控领土的独立证实,也没有这场攻势本身的伤亡数字。这些战果也是在试图扭转不久前发生的事情。德国之声报道称,胡塞武装上月夺取了也门的红海沿岸和海峡本身,该媒体称这是其规模最大的一次土地攫取。3

沙特阿美袭击的说法与否认

胡塞武装军事发言人叶海亚·萨雷亚(Yahya Saree)称,该组织向利雅得和沙特东部胡赖斯地区的沙特阿美设施发射了弹道导弹和无人机。他说,袭击造成大火,并“成功达成目标”。2 35 胡塞武装称这是对沙特领导的空袭的报复。他们称此前12小时内遭到50次空袭。俄罗斯今日电视台(RT)统计,萨那和其他地区至少遭到110次空袭。2 40 两个数字不一致,均未经核实。由胡塞武装运营的马西拉电视台报道称,焦夫和萨达遭到空袭,至少两人受伤。2

沙特领导的联军称,有关袭击利雅得的说法“具有误导性”。33 37 联军发言人土耳其·马立基少将说得更进一步。

虚幻的胜利

土耳其·马立基少将 36

他说,胡塞武装宣称袭击沙特,是为了转移外界对其战场失利的注意力,尤其是在塔伊兹一带。36 我们查阅的摘录中,没有沙特政府或沙特阿美就损失情况发表的声明。

唯一的实物事实是一场火灾。一名法新社记者于10月3日,也就是胡塞武装发表声明的前一天,看到利雅得以南的一处沙特阿美设施起火。33 37 我们找到的材料均无法确定起火原因。胡塞武装只是宣称袭击了胡赖斯。与胡塞武装立场一致的伊朗媒体《凯扬报》称,通往红海的东西输油管道已停运,但没有其他消息来源佐证。11 简言之,有一场火灾,有一方宣称负责,还有一方对其中部分说法予以否认。目前没有任何损失评估。

三天,按各方消息来源的说法

  1. 9月

    胡塞武装夺取也门红海沿岸和曼德海峡,被描述为其规模最大的一次土地攫取。

    3
  2. 10月3日,周六

    一名法新社记者看到利雅得以南的沙特阿美设施起火;起火原因尚未查明。

    33
  3. 10月4日,周日

    政府宣布发起收复所有胡塞武装控制领土的行动;胡塞武装宣称袭击了利雅得和胡赖斯的沙特阿美设施。

    635
  4. 10月5日,周一

    也门官员宣称夺取杜巴卜及海峡沿线阵地,此时沙特、巴基斯坦和土耳其三方会议即将在利雅得举行。

    1331

塔伊兹一带谁占上风

塔伊兹出现这一死亡人数之际,据报道胡塞武装夺取了连接该市与亚丁的一条关键通道,并对该市形成包围。2 各方对谁占优势的说法相互矛盾。联军称胡塞武装在当地正在失去阵地。36 《凯扬报》称包围圈正在收紧,该市已“实际上获得解放”。11 该媒体的措辞含糊,但立场上同情胡塞一方。两种说法不可能都对。在独立方面能够进入该市之前,70多人死亡这一数字是整件事中唯一不属于自夸的部分。

一种僵局预测,以及一次检验

也门问题研究人员汉娜·波特(Hannah Porter)对德国之声表示,政府的目标极为宏大。她认为亲政府力量的能力近期没有提升,预计短期内进展有限,将陷入血腥的僵局。她还说,胡塞武装控制曼德海峡,使其对也门西海岸拥有影响力,并掌握着石油出口的一条狭窄通道。她认为,冲突已经地区化,最终需要通过谈判解决,尽管会谈看来还很遥远。3

她的预测早于周一宣称的战果,而这些战果如果能够守住,将对该预测构成检验。即便如此,在第一天夺回一座沿海城镇和海峡沿线的一些阵地,并不等于证明这些部队能够兑现公告中的承诺。收复每一处胡塞武装控制的地区,包括萨那,远比沿海攻势的目标宏大得多。第一天的情况,说明不了第三个月会怎样。

油价在反映什么

周一布伦特原油交易价在约101.6美元至102.5美元之间,视合约和时间点而定,小幅走低。美国原油价格接近90美元。15 22 胡塞武装宣称发动袭击以及战事升级,被认为对油价构成支撑。16 起反向作用的因素包括中东原油出口增加、沙特阿美出人意料地下调11月对亚洲的原油售价,以及七国集团释放库存的计划。14 16

彭博社报道,马克龙称,七国集团伙伴计划在国际能源署协调下,于四个月内释放最多1亿桶柴油和原油。1 我们查阅的石油市场报道介绍了这一释放计划,但未提及国际能源署,且对是否已经开始释放说法不一。15 21 该计划与也门的消息同时宣布,我们找到的材料均未显示它是对也门局势的回应。因此,市场目前带有一定的也门风险溢价,而库存释放正在削弱这一溢价。控制权存在争议的海峡构成航运风险,但目前并未显示出实际的中断。

已知

  • 10月3日,利雅得以南的一处沙特阿美设施起火;胡塞武装宣称发动袭击,联军称其有关利雅得的说法具有误导性。 3337
  • 政府于10月4日宣布发起行动,也门官员于10月5日宣称在杜巴卜一带和曼德海峡取得进展。 613
  • 10月5日,布伦特原油交易价约在101.6美元至102.5美元之间,小幅走低。 1522

未知

  • 利雅得火灾的起因、胡赖斯是否有任何损失,以及沙特政府或沙特阿美是否会就损失情况作出任何表态。
  • 杜巴卜一带和海峡的宣称战果是否属实、能否持久,以及这场攻势造成了多少人员伤亡。
  • 塔伊兹70多人死亡的数字和包围情况,除法新社援引的消息来源之外是否得到证实。

后续

  • 沙特或沙特阿美就损失情况发表的任何声明,以及对杜巴卜一带和海峡控制权的独立证实。
  • 沙特、巴基斯坦和土耳其官员在利雅得举行的会议,是否会带来任何缓和局势的举措。
播出原貌 14 行
  1. Yemen's government has launched an offensive to retake all Houthi-held territory.
  2. At the same time, the Houthis claim missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco oil sites, and Brent crude sits near $102 a barrel. Every key claim, from every side, is still unverified.
  3. Which of these claims hold up, and how much risk do they put on oil?
  4. The stated aim is to take back every area the Iran-backed Houthis hold. Rashad al-Alimi, who chairs the Presidential Leadership Council, is named as announcing it on Sunday. Government forces said they struck Houthi targets in Sanaa and Saada. The first reports carried no casualty or territorial detail.
  5. Pro-government forces say they have secured the Bab al-Mandab strait. Yemeni officials say allied forces retook the town of Dhubab, just north of it, seized key positions on the waterway and took large parts of Dhubab district. Giants Brigades and National Shield forces are described as besieging Houthi fighters in a Red Sea coastal town. It is an attempt to reverse the Houthis' largest land grab, made last month, when they took Yemen's Red Sea coast and the strait itself. These are official claims. No independent confirmation of territory held, and no casualty figures for the offensive, have surfaced.
  6. More than 1,000 strikes, Saudi air cover and US planning help: that is one description of the offensive, and it is unconfirmed beyond a single source that never says who carried out the strikes. The army claims came ahead of a meeting of Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials in Riyadh.
  7. Flames were seen at an Aramco facility south of Riyadh a day before the Houthis announced an attack, and what caused that fire is not established. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree says the group fired ballistic missiles and drones at Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area of eastern Saudi Arabia, causing large fires, and that both operations achieved their objectives.
  8. The Houthis frame their attacks as retaliation for Saudi-led strikes, and put those at 50 in twelve hours. Another account counts at least 110 on Sanaa and other parts of Yemen. The figures differ, and neither is verified. Strikes in al-Jawf and Saada reportedly wounded at least two people.
  9. The Saudi-led coalition calls the Houthi claims about attacking Riyadh misleading. Spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki Al-Maliki called it an illusory victory, and said the Houthis are using claims of attacks on Saudi Arabia to divert attention from battlefield losses, particularly around Taiz. Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm the claim, and neither the government nor Aramco has made a statement on damage. Nothing confirms damage at Khurais. A Houthi-aligned claim that the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea was halted has no corroboration.
  10. More than 70 people were killed in and around Taiz over the preceding day, with no split between civilians and combatants, and that toll is not independently verified. The Houthis have reportedly seized a key route linking Taiz to Aden and surrounded the city. The accounts conflict on who is gaining: the coalition says the Houthis are losing ground, while a Houthi-aligned account says the encirclement is tightening and the city is practically liberated.
  11. A Yemen researcher expects this to end in a bloody stalemate. She calls the government's objective highly ambitious and sees no recent improvement in pro-government forces' capabilities, so she expects little near-term progress. Houthi control of Bab al-Mandab, she says, gives leverage over Yemen's west coast and a narrow passage for oil exports, and Iran and its allies, including the Houthis, control the two main straits for oil exports. She calls the conflict already regionalised. A negotiated settlement will ultimately be needed, she says, though talks look distant. Her forecast predates Monday's claimed gains, which, if they hold, would test the first part of her view.
  12. Brent crude traded between about $101.6 and $102.5 a barrel, edging lower by roughly 0.3 to 0.65 percent, with US crude near $90. The Houthi attacks and the intensified fighting supported prices. Pulling them down were rising Middle East crude exports, a surprise Aramco cut to November crude prices for Asia, and a G7 plan, announced by Macron, to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months. The IEA's coordinating role is not confirmed, and some accounts say the release has already begun. It was announced alongside the Yemen news, but nothing establishes that it responds to it.
  13. So oil carries a Yemen risk premium that stockpile releases are blunting. A Bab al-Mandab route under contested control is a risk to shipping, but nothing yet shows an actual disruption.
  14. What holds up: a fire at an Aramco site, a Houthi claim of responsibility, a coalition denial of the Riyadh claims, and a Brent price near $102. What does not yet: any verified damage assessment, independent confirmation of the claimed gains around Dhubab and the strait, and the Taiz toll. Still unknown is what caused the Riyadh fire and whether the talks in Riyadh bring any de-escalation.

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