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泽连斯基称，美国导弹预警已恢复，但中断原因仍不明。

泽连斯基称，美国一项关键预警服务已恢复，但卫星限制仍然存在。服务中断的原因及其控制者仍未查明。

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  1. 第 1 次更新泽连斯基称，美国导弹预警已恢复，但中断原因仍不明。当前位置

10月16日，我们报道了俄罗斯导弹和无人机袭击对基辅建筑及能源基础设施造成的破坏。最新进展涉及这些报道背后的防御系统：沃洛迪米尔·泽连斯基总统称，美国对俄罗斯弹道导弹发射的预警在中断三天后再次恢复。不过，他表示，卫星服务限制仍在制约乌克兰的军事行动。按他的说法，一项关键服务已经恢复，另一项则尚未完全恢复。1 4

这是一个意义重大的改善，但并不能解释原因。这段采访于2026年10月18日在NBC的《与新闻界对话》（Meet the Press）节目中播出，但采访录制日期，以及预警中断的确切起止时间，均未能确定。不能将10月18日视为华盛顿恢复该预警服务的日期。现有报道也未能证实这段确切的三天中断及其恢复情况。6 15

后来，美方解除了限制。我们对此非常感谢。现在已经恢复运作。

沃洛迪米尔·泽连斯基 6

泽连斯基对缺失的信息作了明确限定：美国在俄罗斯使用弹道导弹时向乌克兰发出的情报预警。他表示，弹道导弹袭击期间，乌克兰连续三天没有收到这类预警，而欧洲国家和其他伙伴仍在提供其他情报。他将美国的这一能力称为独一无二，这是他的判断，并不能证明乌克兰失去了所有探测袭击的手段。6

这一区别很重要。发射预警能让人们在导弹抵达前获得可采取行动的信息。一个国家可以继续接收情报，同时失去某一条能立即影响防御效果的专用信息渠道。

尚无解释的预警中断

泽连斯基事后回顾的说法有同期记录可佐证。乌克兰方面的声明称，10月12日和13日晚，基辅遭遇弹道导弹袭击时，未收到伙伴方预警。相关报道还称，部分空袭警报发出前已发生爆炸，导弹也被延迟发现。这几晚的袭击有助于解释为何各方如此警觉，但无法确定完整的三天时间线。也没有证据表明，任何具体人员死亡或建筑受损是因缺少美国预警而非俄罗斯袭击本身造成的。95 17

外交部长安德里·瑟比加10月13日给出了更宽泛的说法：乌克兰与美国的情报合作仍在继续。他表示，警报延迟部分与俄罗斯使用的武器有关。特朗普也否认自己在10月13日至14日前后停止了情报共享。这些说法未必能证明某一特定预警渠道没有发生故障；合作持续进行与信息未能完整送达可以同时成立。126 125

原因仍未查明。一名乌克兰官员转述了美方的解释，称当时未能发现导弹发射。现有报道没有指出发射日期，也无法证明这一解释具有决定性。蓄意扣留信息、情报搜集失败以及信息传输失败，仍是不同的可能性，不能混为一谈，也都不能被描述成已证实的暂停服务。1

美国前驻乌克兰大使威廉·泰勒10月18日接受《环球新闻》采访时称，导弹预警和卫星服务中断了约三天。他将这些中断归因于政府作出的一项有意决定。这是泰勒的判断，并非现任官员的公开承认，也未指明是谁批准了变更。2

“恢复”一词没有说明的情况

卫星服务争议有另一条时间线。10月14日，总统技术与电子战顾问谢尔希·别斯克列斯特诺夫（人称“Flash”）称，终端在移动时受到未公开的限制，规定的速度门槛为每小时100英里——约合每小时160–161公里。当晚，前国防部长米哈伊洛·费多罗夫宣布，网络连接已恢复至每小时160公里以内，同时呼吁彻底取消Starshield的速度限制。141 142

国防部消息人士称，10月15日，设备在移动时的服务已恢复正常。但截至10月16日，泽连斯基仍表示全部能力尚未恢复。此前有关恢复服务的报道并未解决之后提出的异议：恢复低于某一门槛时的连接，并不等于取消该门槛。143 101

根据之后的NBC采访报道，泽连斯基称，目前仍适用的最高速度限制为每小时160或161公里。这里指的是联网平台移动的速度，而非互联网传输速率。此前一则报道在措辞混乱的情况下给出了约每小时61公里的数字；之后的采访报道和同期乌克兰方面的声明则支持每小时160–161公里这一数字。较早的数字不应被视为同样得到证实的现行限制。4 141

实际运行情况并非一个数字就能概括。参议员要求展开调查的信函称，乌克兰军方测试发现，速度超过约每小时63英里（约每小时101公里）时会受到限制；据报道，SpaceX则承认存在每小时100英里的限制。第七军团方面称，设备在每小时110–120公里时会断连10–20秒；其他部队观察到的速度范围约为每小时72至161公里。这些是在不同条件下报告的使用体验，并不能证明所有终端都受到同一个普遍适用的速度门槛限制。86 73

泽连斯基称，这项限制导致受影响的卫星联网拦截无人机无法摧毁喷气式动力的沙赫德型飞机；他估计这类飞机的速度为每小时450–550公里。这一估算适用于喷气式动力的型号，并非所有沙赫德无人机。他还表示，这些服务支持向前线运送食品和饮用水。这些说法说明了相关军事利害，但所称的作战影响尚未得到独立证实，官员也没有量化损失的拦截次数、任务或物资运送量。4

他还称，乌克兰设备在欧洲测试时能以更高速度运行；他认为，这说明存在一项针对乌克兰、有意实施的限制。这是他的说法和推断，并非对主观意图的独立证明。他还表示，他提出的另一项请求——允许卫星覆盖俄罗斯领土，以便打击弹道导弹发射——仍未获准。开放对该领土的访问将扩大地理许可范围，而不仅仅是恢复乌克兰境内现有的服务。73 4

有关访问权限和控制权的说法相互矛盾

连受限服务的身份也存在争议。Starlink是SpaceX的商用网络连接服务；Starshield则是面向美国政府和国防行动的独立军用级服务。10月18日，NPR报道了泽连斯基的说法：现有的Starshield访问权限仍受限制。同日，福克斯新闻转述国务卿马可·鲁比奥的立场称，乌克兰正在寻求Starshield访问权限，但目前并不具备该权限。不能把所有服务都称作Starlink来化解这种分歧：乌克兰实际可用的服务、设备和权限仍不明确。3 5

有关责任归属的说法也相互矛盾。泰勒在10月18日接受《环球新闻》采访时将服务中断归因于政府决定；福克斯新闻10月18日的报道则转述了鲁比奥的否认，称美国并未下令降低Starlink服务速度。泽连斯基认为，美国政府的一条信息促使SpaceX施加限制，但他明确表示不知道是谁作出了这一决定。2 5 4

路透社10月15日援引两名美国官员和一名听取过相关情况通报的西方官员报道称，一项命令起源于白宫内部，并传达至国防部领导层。报道未指明具体决策者。一名美国高级官员否认总统提出过此类请求。这是一则具有重要意义、但依赖匿名消息来源的报道，并非已经证实的指挥链。37

特朗普否认干预，并表示据他所知，该系统一直照常运行。财政部长斯科特·贝森特在NBC重申了政府的否认，称泽连斯基的指控“非常鲁莽”。但贝森特表示，他不知道据报发生的卫星服务中断或情报共享中断是由什么原因造成的。他的断然反驳针对的是卫星服务指控，并未解释导弹预警为何缺失。3 7

埃隆·马斯克表示，Starshield的限制由美国军方、最终由总统决定。他区分了商用Starlink，并称其仅限民用或防御用途，不包括进攻性军事行动。这说明了谁拥有决策权，但不能证明本次事件中是否下达过命令。67

要求问责，不是调查结论

由珍妮·沙欣和汤姆·蒂利斯牵头的九名参议员于10月15日致信国防部监察长普拉特·B·莫林三世，要求展开调查。信中提出的问题涉及通信、情报共享和预警能力：是谁指示、批准或知晓相关变更；SpaceX是否履行了合同；相关通知是如何进行的；以及需要采取哪些纠正措施。55 86

信中还提出了相关指控：俄罗斯空袭期间，美国外交、军事和安全人员可能无法进入指定的掩体。这些是有待调查的关切，并非已经完成的调查结论。参议员要求书面确认调查进展，并在2026年11月1日前听取初步简报——而非提交最终报告。目前没有确凿的公开信息证实监察长已启动调查。86

泽连斯基提出在10月20日至21日前后与美国谈判代表会谈，但安排仍未确定，也没有承诺解决这两项服务中断问题。目前，他的说法至少对最紧迫的问题给出了保证：弹道导弹预警服务已恢复。尚待完成的工作是查明服务为何中断、哪些卫星能力仍不可用，以及乌克兰能否依靠这两项服务在下一次袭击来临时继续正常提供服务。6

播出原貌 28 行
  1. On October 16 we reported Kyiv’s strike damage. Zelenskyy says American missile warnings have resumed. Earlier today, we reported that Ukrainian officials had put power losses from earlier attacks at at least 600,000 people. Ukraine’s president now describes three days without American ballistic-missile warnings, while satellite restrictions still hamper defenses in his account. What caused the warning gap, and how much support is working again?
  2. Zelenskyy says Ukraine received no American warnings during ballistic attacks for three days. He says the Americans then restored the information. In his words, “We are very thankful for this. Now it works.”
  3. His interview aired October 18. He hasn't given exact dates for the interruption, so the warnings may have resumed before that broadcast. European countries and other partners continued supplying other intelligence during the gap.
  4. Ukrainian accounts described missing partner warnings for Russian ballistic attacks on Kyiv on the evenings of October 12 and 13. Explosions preceded some air-raid alerts, and missiles were detected late. Those attack nights don't give us the full three-day timetable.
  5. A launch warning gives people information they can act on before a missile arrives. Zelenskyy calls the American capability unique. Ukraine also had other ways to detect attacks, even while the particular American warning information was missing.
  6. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on October 13 that intelligence cooperation with the Americans continued. He linked delayed alerts partly to the weapons Russia used. Cooperation could continue while one specialized stream of launch warnings failed to arrive.
  7. Trump denied stopping intelligence sharing around October 13 and 14. Former American ambassador William Taylor later described a roughly three-day warning interruption and blamed a conscious administration decision. He also described interruptions to Ukraine’s satellite services.
  8. A Ukrainian official relayed an American explanation that the launch simply hadn't been seen. That explanation wasn't tied publicly to a specific launch date. Nobody has explained conclusively whether information was withheld, missed by American systems, or lost along the way.
  9. Zelenskyy says satellite restrictions remain even though the missile-warning information has returned. He believes an American government message prompted SpaceX to impose the limits. He says he doesn't know who made that decision, and has sought Trump’s and Elon Musk’s intervention.
  10. Ukraine described a partial satellite recovery before Zelenskyy’s interview. On October 14, officials reported unannounced restrictions on moving terminals. Connectivity below a speed threshold began returning that evening. Defense Ministry sources described service in motion working again on October 15.
  11. Presidential technology adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov, known as Flash, described a restriction around 100 miles an hour. Former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced connectivity returning up to 160 kilometers an hour, while urging complete removal of Starshield’s speed limit.
  12. By October 16, Zelenskyy was still saying full capability hadn't returned. Restoring a connection below a threshold can leave faster-moving aircraft unable to use it. The restriction concerns how fast the connected platform moves.
  13. Zelenskyy puts the platform threshold at 160 or 161 kilometers an hour. He says affected interceptor drones can't destroy jet-powered Shahed-type aircraft he estimates fly at 450 to 550 kilometers an hour. That estimate applies to those jet-powered variants.
  14. Ukrainian military testing found restrictions above about 63 miles an hour, roughly 101 kilometers an hour. The Senate letter says SpaceX reportedly acknowledged 100 miles an hour. Seventh Corps accounts described drops at 110 to 120 kilometers an hour, lasting 10 to 20 seconds.
  15. Other unit observations ranged from roughly 72 to 161 kilometers an hour, depending on the platform and conditions. Those experiences don't give every terminal the same cutoff. Zelenskyy also says Ukrainian equipment worked at higher speeds during tests in Europe, which he sees as evidence of a deliberate Ukraine-specific restriction.
  16. Zelenskyy says the connections support frontline deliveries of food and water, as well as interception of Russian weapons. Taylor describes their use against Russian drones and for targeting Russian firing positions. The officials haven't put a number on lost missions or interceptions.
  17. Ukraine also sought satellite access over Russian territory to attack ballistic-missile launches. Zelenskyy says that request remains unmet. Opening that territory would expand the service’s geographic reach beyond restoring capabilities already used inside Ukraine.
  18. Officials disagree about what Ukraine has access to. Starlink is SpaceX’s commercial connectivity service. Starshield is a separate military-grade offering for American government and defense operations. Ukrainian accounts describe restricted existing Starshield access, while Rubio says Ukraine is seeking access it doesn't currently have.
  19. Trump denies interfering and says the system was operating as usual, as far as he understood. Rubio denies a White House order to reduce access or speed to keep certain drones from using it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent repeats their denial.
  20. Bessent calls Zelenskyy’s accusation “very reckless” and warns him to be careful. He says he doesn't know what caused the satellite disruption or the intelligence-sharing break. His categorical rebuttal addresses the satellite allegation and supplies no explanation for the missing missile warnings.
  21. Musk says the American military and ultimately the president decide Starshield’s limits. He describes commercial Starlink as limited to civilian or defensive activity, excluding offensive military action. His description of control doesn't tell us whether an order was issued in this case.
  22. Taylor attributes the interruptions to an administration decision. Rubio rejects an American order to slow Starlink. Their positions conflict, and the dispute also reaches the identity of the service, its permissions and the equipment Ukraine could use.
  23. Two American officials and a Western official briefed on the matter describe an order originating inside the White House and reaching Defense Department leadership. They identify no individual decision-maker. A senior American official denies that the president made such a request. Zelenskyy says the warning feed now works, but the cause of its absence and the extent of restored satellite capability are still unresolved.
  24. Nine senators asked the Defense Department’s inspector general, Platte Moring the Third, to investigate on October 15. Jeanne Shaheen and Thom Tillis led the bipartisan request. It covers communications, intelligence sharing and warning capabilities, including possible danger to American personnel.
  25. Dick Durbin, Susan Collins, Jack Reed, John Cornyn, Chris Coons, Lisa Murkowski and Richard Blumenthal also signed. They want to know who directed, approved or knew about changes, whether SpaceX complied with its contracts, what notifications occurred, and what corrective measures are needed.
  26. The senators also raise allegations that American diplomatic, military and security personnel couldn't reach designated bunkers during Russian air raids. They want the effects on those personnel and Ukraine’s defenses examined. The inspector general hasn't publicly confirmed opening an investigation.
  27. Zelenskyy says he's ready for talks with American negotiators around October 20 or 21, following an American signal that a meeting could happen. Those dates are tentative, and nobody has committed to resolving either disruption through those talks.
  28. The senators want written confirmation of the investigation’s status and an initial briefing by November 1, 2026. They asked for an immediate investigation. Their deadline is for that response and briefing, with no promised date for final findings.

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