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柴油涨至 6 美元，特朗普指责乌克兰。数据却指向别处。

美国柴油价格首次突破 6 美元。特朗普将其归咎于乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂——但霍尔木兹海峡、炼油能力紧张和创纪录出口量所揭示的，是另一番情况。

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原语言视频

译自英文原文。

是谁让美国柴油价格涨到每加仑 6 美元——是乌克兰无人机，还是遥远的航运咽喉和已无力增产的炼油体系？这是唐纳德·特朗普总统最近向基辅提出的要求所引出的疑问，而市场数据给出了直截了当的答案：不是基辅。⁠1

$6美国柴油均价，史上首次 1
+60%柴油价格同比涨幅 1
10% vs 2-3%霍尔木兹海峡柴油占比与俄罗斯出口峰值占比 1

据 DW News 于 2026 年 9 月 14 日发布的报道，特朗普公开将创纪录的油价归咎于乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并要求乌克兰停止打击俄罗斯柴油设施。⁠1 这一指责出现之际，美国柴油全国均价首次突破每加仑 6 美元，较一年前上涨 60%。⁠1 他将一场全球燃料供应冲击的责任归咎于一个处于战争中的盟友，而非数据实际指向的供应路线和炼油厂。⁠1

数据指向别处

大西洋理事会全球能源中心能源分析师 Olga Khakova 表示，乌克兰只是影响司机所付油价的一个小因素。⁠1 她的比较十分鲜明：全球约 10% 的海运柴油经由霍尔木兹海峡运输，而俄罗斯柴油出口即使在峰值时也只占全球需求的 2-3%。⁠1 换句话说，乌克兰无人机能够影响的范围，只是中东运输通道所掌控范围的一小部分。⁠1

其余压力来自炼油和出口体系本身。⁠1 美国炼油厂的产能利用率已达 95-97%，美国柴油出口量接近创纪录的每天 2 million 桶。⁠1 美国炼油厂正在尽可能多地生产燃料，其中很大一部分流向海外，这使国内供应更加紧张，也几乎没有余地来吸收冲击。⁠1 Khakova 认为，正是这种紧张状况意味着，停止乌克兰的打击行动只能带来有限的缓解。⁠1

这一区别很重要，因为柴油不是汽油。柴油是推动经济运转的燃料——货运卡车、农业机械、建筑设备和船舶都依靠它运行。⁠1 每次价格上涨都会推高将商品运上货架、收割庄稼和运输物资的成本，而这些成本最终会转嫁给所有购买商品的人。⁠1 因此，每加仑 6 美元且同比上涨 60%，不仅是加油站的一个数字，更是整个供应链都要承担的一项成本。⁠1

相关人物

  • 唐纳德·特朗普美国总统，将责任归咎于乌克兰并要求停止袭击
  • 弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基乌克兰总统，成为要求的对象；其回应尚未得到确认
  • Olga Khakova大西洋理事会能源分析师，称乌克兰只是一个小因素

地点

  1. 01霍尔木兹海峡
  2. 02乌克兰基辅
  3. 03俄罗斯莫斯科
  4. 04美国华盛顿

特朗普点名的打击目标也并非中立。这些打击针对的是支撑莫斯科入侵行动的俄罗斯燃料基础设施。⁠1 总统要求一个正在抵御全面战争的国家停止打击，依据却是一项与市场数据相矛盾的经济说法。⁠1 这一说法的地理位置更凸显了其中的不匹配：专家提到的最大压力点，是一条远离乌克兰的狭窄水道；穿过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮牵动着全球市场。⁠1

已知

  • 美国柴油价格首次突破每加仑 6 美元，同比上涨 60%。 1
  • 特朗普将柴油价格上涨归咎于乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并要求基辅停止打击柴油燃料设施。 1
  • 专家称，霍尔木兹海峡运输的柴油占海运柴油总量的 10%，俄罗斯出口峰值仅占需求的 2-3%；美国炼油厂产能利用率为 95-97%，出口量接近每天 2M 桶。 1

未知

  • 尚未确定乌克兰袭击对价格涨幅的具体量化影响。
  • 尚无经确认的乌克兰官方回应特朗普的要求。

后续

  • 霍尔木兹海峡的压力和炼油能力紧张是否会令柴油价格维持在纪录高位附近。
  • 尽管预计只能带来有限缓解，华盛顿是否仍会进一步向基辅施压。

需要坦承的是，这一分析依据的是 DW News 的单篇报道；除比较各方占比外，乌克兰袭击的具体影响从未得到量化。⁠1 未能获得独立证实，也没有确认乌克兰方面的回应。⁠1 现有证据指向已很明确：乌克兰是一个因素，但影响不大；真正起主要作用的是霍尔木兹海峡、炼油能力紧张和创纪录的出口量。⁠1 因此，下次柴油价格上涨时，原因更可能是航运咽喉，而不是无人机。⁠1

时间线

第 2 天 · 2 篇报道

事件时间线

  1. 最先报道

  2. 我们的播报 · 第 1 次更新当前位置

    柴油涨至 6 美元，特朗普指责乌克兰。数据却指向别处。

  3. 4天后

  4. 我们的播报 · 第 2 次更新较新

    70万桶消失：无人机与封锁推动柴油价格创纪录

来源1

在此处引用的来源中，DW News最先发布，比本报道播出早33小时。
  1. DW News
  2. HeyDay News

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播出原貌
  1. Diesel just hit $6 a gallon in the United States for the first time.
  2. That's a 60% jump in a year. It's the fuel that moves the economy - trucking, farming, construction, and shipping all run on it. Every jump lifts the cost of getting goods to shelves, bringing in harvests, and moving supplies. This isn't just a number at the pump; it's a cost that ripples through the entire supply chain.
  3. Now the president says Ukraine is to blame. Is he right?
  4. President Trump is publicly blaming Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for the record prices, and he's demanding Kyiv stop hitting diesel fuel. Energy analyst Olga Khakova says that's only part of the story. Trump's demand puts the blame on a wartime ally, while the market data points elsewhere.
  5. The president specifically called on Kyiv to stop the strikes on Russian diesel infrastructure, saying they're driving up prices worldwide.
  6. Khakova points out that the Strait of Hormuz carries about ten percent of the world's seaborne diesel, while Russian exports at their peak account for only two to three percent of global demand. In other words, what Ukraine can affect is a fraction of what the Middle East controls.
  7. So which matters more? The expert puts the weight on the chokepoint.
  8. Khakova says the market data points to the Middle East and the tightness of the global refining and export system, not Ukrainian drones.
  9. American refineries are already running at 95 to 97 percent capacity, and diesel exports are near a record two million barrels a day. The expert's conclusion: stopping the Ukrainian strikes would bring only marginal relief.
  10. Refineries worldwide are already running near capacity, leaving little room to absorb shocks.
  11. And every rise at the pump gets passed along to everyone who buys goods.
  12. The president's target is Russia's fuel exports. But the biggest pressure point is a narrow waterway far from Ukraine: the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers thread through on their way to world markets.
  13. The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important waterway for global diesel, and its disruption sends ripples through the entire market.
  14. It's the fuel that moves freight, runs farm equipment, powers construction, and drives shipping.
  15. The US is producing as much diesel as it can, but much of it is flowing abroad. That tightens supply at home, and it's one reason prices are at record highs.
  16. The Middle East war has been squeezing that corridor for months, and that's the pressure the market treats as dominant. The war has disrupted shipping, and the chokepoint is at the center of it.
  17. The war in the Middle East has been a constant source of supply risk, and that risk is baked into the price.
  18. Attacks on refineries in the region have taken capacity offline, adding to the squeeze.
  19. Those strikes are aimed at Russian fuel infrastructure that sustains Moscow's invasion. The president is asking a country defending itself against a full-scale war to halt them, based on a claim the market data contradicts.
  20. Still, there are open questions. The precise share of the price rise linked to Ukraine's strikes has never been quantified, and there's no confirmed response from Kyiv. The analysis rests on a single report, and independent confirmation hasn't been obtained. Without that, the analysis remains one account.
  21. So the evidence says Ukraine is a factor, but a small one. The real drivers are the Strait of Hormuz, tight refining, and record exports. The president's demand wouldn't lower the price at the pump. So the next time you see a diesel price climb, the cause is more likely a chokepoint than a drone.

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