国际 · 俄罗斯柴油

特朗普以价值不足美国一天需求量的柴油为由，要求乌克兰更换总统

据报道，华盛顿将情报共享与停止袭击炼油厂挂钩。柴油许可证确实存在；柴油交付、燃料降价以及俄罗斯对等克制均未得到证实。

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  1. 第 1 次更新特朗普以价值不足美国一天需求量的柴油为由，要求乌克兰更换总统当前位置

30万吨柴油听起来像一批救援物资。换算成约220万至225万桶，相当于美国更广义的柴油和馏分油每日消费量的约一半至三分之二——前提是每一桶都留在美国。这就是唐纳德·特朗普承诺的首批俄罗斯供应的规模。他如今施压要求乌克兰付出的政治代价则大得多：停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并换一位总统。32 18 107 108

2026年10月10日，在宣布与弗拉基米尔·普京达成柴油安排的次日，特朗普呼吁乌克兰更换弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。据报道，华盛顿还威胁称，如果乌克兰继续袭击炼油厂，将限制情报共享。截至10月11日06:57 UTC的报道截稿时，尚未确认情报共享限制已实施，也未确认柴油已交付。与此同时，欧洲正准备追加制裁，而不是效仿华盛顿放宽限制。11 5 312 9

我认为，乌克兰该换一位新总统了

唐纳德·特朗普 341

特朗普指责泽连斯基错过结束战争的机会，并称自己曾警告他不要袭击炼油厂，认为相关破坏可能因柴油短缺而损害美国农民和牧场主的利益。这些言论不能证实私人警告的日期或具体内容，也不能证实乌克兰原本可以接受的和解方案。他声称如果自己担任总统，战争绝不会爆发；这是一种反事实说法，并非能够免除俄罗斯入侵责任的解释。17 10

特朗普还声称，双方已有超过200万人死亡，乌克兰失去了本国30%的领土。这里没有证据证实这两个数字：报道没有提供伤亡统计方法或领土计算的分母。不能仅仅因为总统说过，就把这些数字当作公认的统计结果。4

美国前驻乌克兰大使小威廉·泰勒提出了关键的纠正意见：乌克兰人决定自己的领导人。乌克兰驻澳大利亚大使瓦西尔·米罗什尼琴科表示，战争期间并未讨论选举，因为存在安全和合法性方面的担忧。8月的报道指出，戒严期间选举受到禁止；泽连斯基是否愿意举行投票，则取决于盟友能否提供安全保障。这并未确立10月的法律时间表。特朗普的要求并不等于乌克兰宣布举行选举。2 8 343 358 359

总统争论背后的威胁

与更换领导人的要求相比，情报共享条件带来的军事后果更为直接。《基辅邮报》报道，史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳在迈阿密警告乌克兰谈判代表，如果继续袭击炼油厂，可能会限制情报共享。ITV在10月10日的报道则更为明确地描述了美国的立场：除非袭击停止，否则不提供情报。两种说法对严重程度的描述不同，但都不能证明援助实际上已经撤回。312 5

乌克兰依赖美国卫星情报，因此即使只是威胁限制，也会产生重大影响。目前尚未确认中断情报将造成多大程度的作战损失。ITV报道说，尽管情报共享或柴油出口可能受到影响，乌克兰仍打算继续袭击炼油厂。12 5

基辅的立场并非无条件拒绝限制能源打击。米罗什尼琴科表示，乌克兰代表团提出，如果俄罗斯停止袭击乌克兰能源基础设施，乌克兰就停止袭击俄罗斯石油炼油厂。泽连斯基也曾提出相互克制。目前尚未确认俄罗斯接受了这一提议，也未确认双方已落实能源停火。一名美国官员称，基辅无视了约六次停止袭击的请求；这描述的是要求暂停，并不能证明乌克兰拒绝了双方商定的停火。8 75 74

乌克兰、美国和欧洲谈判代表于10月9日在迈阿密会谈了六个小时。泽连斯基抱怨说，谈判被用作幌子。MS NOW报道了泽连斯基的说法：没有美国代表提及柴油协议；《基辅独立报》较新的报道则称，威特科夫和库什纳告诉代表团，制裁放宽即将到来。具体的通知顺序仍未厘清。被告知一项决定，不等于参与谈判或同意该决定。19 30 314

许可证真实存在，燃料缓解效果尚未证实

10月2日，HeyDay News报道了七国集团承诺在四个月内协调释放1亿桶战略储备，并在前20天内大幅提前供应柴油。这项承诺计入了此前的释放量；它并不意味着所有燃料都已到位。特朗普如今开辟了另一条供应路线，即从俄罗斯获得供应，同时施压乌克兰保护生产这些燃料所需的基础设施。

法律变化的范围比全面解除俄罗斯能源制裁要窄。美国财政部海外资产控制办公室于10月9日发布第135号一般许可证，授权符合条件的俄罗斯原产柴油销售、交付、卸货和进口（包括进口至美国），这些行为原本受《美国联邦法规》第31编第587和589部分禁止。许可证有效期至2027年4月7日美国东部夏令时间凌晨12:01，即04:01 UTC。10月9日是许可证签发日，并非油轮装载的截止日期。41 42

该许可证不授权从美国金融机构中俄罗斯中央银行、国家财富基金或财政部持有的账户扣款。它也不会改变欧洲或澳大利亚的限制。贸易许可确实存在；但尚未确认具体买家、已付款的合同、目的港或燃料供应消费者的时间安排。克里姆林宫确认已准备好供应石油产品，但未独立重申特朗普所说的具体数量。41 33 36 25

特朗普10月9日宣布，承诺立即供应30多万吨、11月供应50万吨、紧接着立即供应100万吨，并在较短时间内额外供应300万吨，具体取决于炼油厂状况。合计超过480万吨。美国广播公司新闻10月10日的报道提到分阶段供应180万吨；英国广播公司当天晚间的报道则包括额外的、有条件的300万吨。较小的总量只计算了最初三项取整后的配额，没有涵盖完整的宣布内容。77 15 11

俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克称，100万吨的配额安排在12月，并预测出口最终可能接近每月300万吨。这一潜在月度供应速度不同于特朗普所说的单笔额外配额。诺瓦克还表示，俄罗斯正提前开始放宽出口限制。无论是预测还是放宽限制，都不能证明存在可供出口的剩余供应。7 16 133

供应受限的说法可信，但其规模需要谨慎表述。国际能源署6月发布的评估数据显示，俄罗斯炼油厂日加工量为380万桶，较一年前下降约30%；柴油产量则估计比2025年水平低近30%。这些是产量数据，并不能证明正如ITV所述，有30–40%的炼油设施遭到摧毁。它们也不是10月可交付燃料库存的统计数据。219 5

特朗普承诺油价将“以前所未有的幅度，而且迅速”下降。美国汽车协会公布的全国柴油平均价格在10月9日和10日均四舍五入为每加仑6.28美元；这些数据无法证明这项安排带来了任何节省。一名接受SBS采访的分析师预测，若有燃料交付，每加仑价格可能下降5–15美分，最快也要六个月后。这是预测，不是已经观察到的缓解效果。77 203 23

特朗普将柴油问题归咎于乌克兰袭击炼油厂；泰勒则归咎于美国2月对伊朗发动的袭击。报道提及中东战争、霍尔木兹海峡周边的运输中断、俄罗斯出口限制以及炼油厂受损。这些因素各自的影响尚未量化。农民和卡车司机面临的真实困境，并不能使特朗普对责任的划分成为已证实的事实。2 27

欧洲选择施压，而非妥协

这场争论发生之际，俄罗斯的袭击仍在继续。在10月10日关于扎波罗热的报道中，我们报道了当晚的伤亡数字：20人死亡，其中包括3名儿童。《卫报》10月10日的报道采用了这一数字；第四频道此前报道17人死亡，ITV稍后的节目仍报道至少17人死亡。这些是不断变化的伤亡情况记录，不能视为彼此竞争、需要相加的总数。泽连斯基称，五枚滑翔炸弹击中了住宅楼。他将袭击描述为俄罗斯对制裁放宽的“感谢”，这是政治解读；时间上的先后并不能证明因果关系。1 18 5

欧盟外交政策负责人卡娅·卡拉斯表示：“暂停对俄罗斯柴油的制裁，将为莫斯科提供更多用于发动战争的收入。”预计欧洲各国部长将于10月12日在卢森堡考虑新增制裁对象。《卫报》10月10日的报道称有1,600个对象；德国之声当天晚间的报道称超过1,600个。初步草案报告列出1,571个对象。最终数量及是否通过仍待确定。自2023年2月起生效的欧盟柴油进口禁令仍然有效。11 1 9 330

反对声也跨越了美国党派界线。民主党人谴责这项安排，共和党人唐·培根和迈克尔·麦考尔也对此表示批评。特朗普于9月18日签署《林赛·O·格雷厄姆制裁俄罗斯和伊朗法案》，比授权出台早了三周。政策上的矛盾显而易见，但法律上的解决方式尚不明确。尚未确认具体援引了哪项法定豁免，也没有法院裁定该许可证违法。13 349 230

已知

  • 华盛顿已授权符合条件的俄罗斯柴油贸易，期限至2027年4月7日。 4142

未知

  • 目前尚未确认柴油已完成交付、消费者长期省钱、情报共享限制已实施，或双方达成对等能源停火。

后续

  • 10月12日将迎来下一个有日期的考验：欧洲是否通过拟议制裁，以及华盛顿是否落实、修改或放弃据报道提出的情报共享条件。

目前，双方的不平衡显而易见。莫斯科已获得一条经授权的柴油收入渠道，但尚无证据显示俄罗斯作出了对等承诺，停止袭击乌克兰能源系统。美国人得到的是供应承诺，而不是已确认的廉价燃料。乌克兰则面临压力，被要求在任何一方的利益得到证实之前放弃一项筹码。

播出原貌 42 行
  1. On October 2, we reported a G7 reserve release. Now Trump demands Ukraine replace its president.
  2. Washington is reportedly threatening intelligence restrictions unless Ukraine stops striking Russian refineries. Ukraine relies on American weapons and satellite intelligence, while Trump promises Russian diesel will bring fuel prices down.
  3. Will Washington withdraw intelligence support over attacks Ukraine says it will continue?
  4. G7 leaders had committed to releasing 100 million barrels over four months, with diesel frontloaded within the first 20 days. That commitment accounted for earlier releases. Trump has now opened another supply route through Russia.
  5. Trump said, “I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president.” He blamed Volodymyr Zelenskyy for failing to make peace and demanded an end to attacks on Russian refineries.
  6. Trump said Zelenskyy had passed up opportunities to settle the war. He also claimed the invasion wouldn't have happened under his presidency. Those assertions leave Russia's responsibility for launching its invasion unchanged.
  7. He claimed more than two million people had died and Ukraine had lost 30 percent of its country. He gave no basis for those figures, and they haven't been substantiated.
  8. Former US ambassador William Taylor Jr. said Ukrainians choose their leader. He predicted Trump's demand could strengthen Zelenskyy's popularity. Ukraine's ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, said wartime security and legitimacy concerns kept elections off the agenda.
  9. Zelenskyy previously said a vote would need security guarantees from American and European allies. Trump hasn't announced any Ukrainian election. His demand is adding pressure to a relationship Ukraine depends on for its defense.
  10. American envoys reportedly warned Ukraine that continued refinery strikes could cost it intelligence support. Kyiv wants Russia to stop attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure in return. Russia hasn't accepted that offer, and no intelligence suspension has been confirmed.
  11. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly delivered the warning to Ukrainian negotiators in Miami. Descriptions range from possible restrictions to a complete cutoff. Ukraine says its refinery attacks will continue despite that risk.
  12. Negotiators from Ukraine, America and Europe met in Miami for six hours on October 9. A US official said Kyiv had ignored about half a dozen requests to stop refinery attacks. Ukraine insists any pause must be mutual.
  13. Zelenskyy said the diesel decision blindsided his delegation and accused Washington of using negotiations as a front. One account said American participants hadn't raised the deal. A newer account says Witkoff and Kushner warned the delegation that sanctions relief was coming.
  14. The timing of that notification is still unclear. Zelenskyy's complaint could concern whether the decision was mentioned or whether Ukraine had any chance to negotiate it.
  15. Treasury issued its diesel license on October 9. It permits qualifying sales, deliveries and imports of Russian-origin diesel, including imports into America. The authorization runs until April 7, 2027.
  16. Other Russian sanctions remain in place. The license still excludes debits to American accounts held by Russia's central bank, National Wealth Fund and finance ministry. European and Australian restrictions also continue.
  17. Trump promised fuel after speaking with Vladimir Putin, and the Kremlin confirmed readiness to supply petroleum products. By early October 11, no completed delivery had been confirmed. The promised fuel is intended for American and global markets.
  18. Trump promised more than 300,000 tons immediately, then 500,000 tons in November. He pledged another one million tons afterward, followed by an additional three million tons, dependent on the condition of Russia's refineries.
  19. The complete promise adds up to more than 4.8 million tons. A widely repeated 1.8 million total counts only the first three rounded allocations. The additional three million depends on refinery conditions.
  20. Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak placed the one-million-ton shipment in December. He also projected exports could eventually approach three million tons a month. That projection goes beyond Trump's single additional allocation.
  21. Novak said Russia was beginning to ease export restrictions early, before their planned end-of-October expiry. He said supplies could start in October and Russian consumers wouldn't face shortages. Those assurances don't measure how much export fuel Russia actually has available.
  22. Three hundred thousand tons equal about 2.2 to 2.25 million barrels. America uses about three to four million barrels of diesel and related fuels daily. Even if America kept the entire first allocation, it'd cover roughly half to two-thirds of a day.
  23. Former US ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker said the October allocation was too small to materially affect prices. Sanctions campaigner Bill Browder argued that pressuring Ukraine to stop refinery attacks could weaken its leverage over Russia.
  24. Browder estimated the full proposed supply would add about one percent of US demand. Another industry estimate put the initial allocation at seven percent of a supply gap. Their comparison periods and gap calculations weren't supplied, so those percentages measure different things.
  25. Russia's refineries processed 3.8 million barrels daily in June, their lowest rate in more than 20 years. Throughput was about 30 percent below a year earlier. Diesel output was nearly 30 percent lower, and gasoline output about 20 percent lower.
  26. Those are dated production measurements. They describe reduced output, while Russia's ability to supply October exports depends on current refinery operations and domestic needs. A refinery analyst called the proposed production increase ambitious because infrastructure is under attack and export capacity is limited.
  27. American diesel averaged about six dollars and 53 cents at its September record. It rounded to six dollars and 28 cents on both October 9 and October 10. Farmers, ranchers and truckers still face those costs.
  28. Trump promised prices would fall quickly and blamed Ukrainian refinery attacks for diesel problems. Taylor instead blamed America's February attack on Iran. The Middle East war and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz also constrain supplies, alongside Russian export restrictions and refinery damage.
  29. One analyst forecast possible savings of five to 15 cents a gallon, no sooner than six months, if deliveries happen. Fuel must still move through shipping, inventories and distribution before it reaches consumers.
  30. Trump signed a new Russia and Iran sanctions law on September 18, three weeks before opening the diesel trade. Its sanctions and tariff measures aimed to increase pressure on Moscow. The fuel decision has drawn opposition from both parties.
  31. Democratic senators Jeanne Shaheen, Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren called it a betrayal of Ukraine, European allies and American national security. Richard Blumenthal called it an embarrassment. Republicans Don Bacon and Michael McCaul also criticized the agreement.
  32. Zelenskyy said, “Gifts to Putin will not bring peace.” He argues Russian fuel revenue could buy military equipment and prolong the war. Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev welcomed the energy cooperation.
  33. Zelenskyy said five Russian glide bombs struck residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia on October 10. Ukrainian officials put the evening death toll at 20, including three children. Earlier tallies were lower, and the count could still change.
  34. Some later broadcasts still carried the earlier count of 17. Zelenskyy linked the bombing to the sanctions relief, calling it Russia's thanks. The attack followed the decision, but that timing doesn't show the license caused it.
  35. Kyiv suffered large-scale power outages and a daytime ballistic-missile attack. American-made Patriot interceptors reportedly brought down missiles heading toward the capital. Ukraine's continuing defense needs give the intelligence warning an immediate wartime stake.
  36. A fire burned at the Rostovski oil terminal in Rostov-on-Don. The terminal exports petroleum products and supplies Russian military fuel. A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly caused the blaze, although its cause hasn't been confirmed.
  37. EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas said suspending diesel sanctions gives Moscow more revenue to wage war. She said Europe wouldn't ease pressure. The EU's ban on Russian diesel imports has been in force since February 2023.
  38. The proposed European additions number around 1,600, many linked to Russia's military-industrial complex. Descriptions range from 1,600 to more than 1,600. A preliminary draft contained 1,571 entries. Ministers still have to approve the final list.
  39. Germany reaffirmed its sanctions policy. Finland's prime minister Petteri Orpo called the diesel agreement a major disappointment. Downing Street said Andy Burnham reiterated British support and tougher sanctions in a call with Zelenskyy.
  40. Australia is maintaining restrictions on Russian fuel. Anthony Albanese and Zelenskyy signed their long-term support agreement in New York on September 24. Myroshnychenko also described a 60-million-dollar assistance package covering military, humanitarian and energy needs.
  41. Washington's intelligence condition remains a reported threat as of early October 11. Ukraine continues to demand reciprocal protection for its energy systems. The diesel authorization has opened trade, while deliveries and lasting consumer savings still await confirmation.
  42. European ministers are expected to consider sanctions in Luxembourg on October 12. America's next inflation release is scheduled for October 14, the last before the midterms. The Russian diesel authorization expires on April 7, 2027.

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